Survival of Nazi Germany: My Comments

Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

Survival of Nazi Germany – Comments

This is probably unique in my experience. Most TLs that include a nazi survival tend to have Hitler defeat Russia in 1941, although that would be difficult for the Nazis to pull off. Anyway, on with the comments

Norway: I agree with you on this one, a success would keep chamberlain in power and provide the allies with a real morale boost. That said, if the British do arrive first, they might be attacked by Norwegian forces, which would either see them pushed back (and feeling unwilling to assist the Norwegians when Hitler strikes) or them occupying Norway themselves, which would give Hitler a considerable propaganda tool. However, even if we have the brits launch a day or so before Hitler, which lets them get troops near Norway (rather than on land) and powerful naval forces nearby, we’d probably see the brits smash the German destroyers that carried the northernmost prong of the German force, but the Germans would probably manage to land the southern forces and occupy Denmark anyway.

France: However, when Hitler was desperate in OTL, he tended to try desperate measures, such as the famous Manstain Plan. (Correct me if I’m wrong, but did they not lose the plans before Norway? I’ll check.) Even with the original plan, I’d still bet on the Germans, even through the campaign would be longer and bloodier. If the French stay in the fight longer, Hitler might well consider occupying ALL of France, particularly if the gems of the French forces, (mainly the navy) is either part of the free French (or a French govt. in exile) is in allied hands and there’s no point in enforcing neutrality over the French mainland.

If Italy does get involved in this WW2, the French and British colonial forces in Africa would overwhelm Libya, well before the Germans can send some equivalent of the Afrika Korps to aid the dumbos. The Brits can then finish off the remaining Italian colonies at leisure. This has interesting effects in that more French and British troops will be available to go to the Far East, which may deter Japan from occupying Indochina and threatening the Empires in the Far East.

If Musso is not dethroned for this little screw-up, he’ll be forced to shift his politics into a very firm German orbit, which will add some forces to the German forces. Perhaps not of that much value, but, without the Italian borughcraticy, they might be able to contribute something helpful to the Germans.

The stalemate is the probable end result of this war. The British and French fleets would be able to defeat the U-Boats (extra escorts = less chance of a U-Boat getting close). On the other hand, Germany would be absorbing the French, Italian (and perhaps Spanish) industrial bases, and perhaps developing the small craft needed to invade Britain. This TL might see a German Sealion in 1942, although, in OTL, Britain was impregnable by then.

I’m not sure I see the treaty that you describe as the logical outcome. Britain and the exile French can’t hope to retake Europe, while Germany can’t crush them without nukes (which might see more nazi concentration on obtaining them). I suspect that the Germans will spend most of 1941-42 preparing defences for the eastern front, formatting discontent in the colonial empires and developing their industrial base.

My outcome of this TL would be an agreement to return nominal sovinitnity over most of mainland France to the French, but with strict limits on the French forces allowed on the mainland and the retention of the economic links between Germany and France. France’s colonies get unlimited immigration from the mainland and real independence.

Another possible outcome is the Germans making a deal with the Turks, or Stalin, or both, to invade the Middle East through Turkey. Many of the Balkan states would be looking desperaly for a protector against the USSR, so they might well be amiable to an agreement alone those lines. In which case we get a German takeover of the Middle East and the collapse of much of the old empires.

USSR: I don’t think that the USSR would become a great (ok, greater) power in this timeline. While they had a large army and airforce (and extra time after the Finland debacle), they were handicapped by having Stalin to lead them. There is no reason why he should not have considered another purge, absent a threat from the west, which might see Zhukov and the other winners of OTL killed. Further, the USSR of 1945-1980 drew heavily on German scientists, who won’t be available in this TL. A German invasion might be unlikely, but the danger might cause problems for the Soviets, who will always need to stand on guard. Incidentally, Stalin could attack the Japanese once the German threat recedes in 1941.

British Empire: This half-victory in no way solves the problems that bedevilled the British in 1940 and therefore the collapse of most of the empire is certain. That said, if there are more troops available, the transfer of power to Indians might be more peaceful. However, if there is a powerful nationalist Asian state in the wings, Japan, it may be difficult for the Indians to keep their new independence.

Long-Term: Toltarenian regimes don’t tend to last long, in a general sense. Germany will probably slowly slip back towards democratic, as Hitler deteriorates from Parkinson’s disease and frustration at the disruption to his plans. However, unless the Germans ship all the Jews to Madagascar or Palestine or some other hellhole, they’ll be exterminated or absorbed. If the German public learns of this, how will they react if there’s not an obvious war going on? Further, if the Pope does nothing to condemn it, (most of the pathetic excuses that he used in OTL don’t apply here), the Catholic Church could and probably will lose much of its prestige. As the British/Free French/Americans/etc will be broadcasting the truth about the Nazi arocratis, it would be hard for them not to condemn the church for doing nothing, while those who hate the church on general principles could probably push for a renunciation of the Vatican’s special status.

The USSR will probably collapse much sooner than OTL. Without a German invasion to unite them behind Stalin, and to ‘justify’ Stalin’s own misdeeds, rebellion is a serious possibility. Food riots did in the Tsar after all. The Germans would probably fuel the fire with arms supplies to Ukrainian and Russian freedom fighters.

When Nukes get invented, they’ll change the whole balance of power. If the Germans get them first, I can’t see Hitler not bombing Britain at once and demanding surrender. If the brits get nukes first, they might use them (although chamberlain would probably not allow it) or just have a MAD-style scenario. But if the USSR does not get them (which is likely in the short term), Stalin might try a pre-emptive strike on Germany.

Anyway, I hope you like these comments on a very good AH.