Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

What Really Happened: The Aztecs of Mexico, (Mexica) had an odd custom when it came to the Tlaxcalans, a city-state near their capital city, with whom they were hereditary enemies. Because, historians say, they needed to have sacrificial victims, they allowed the Tlaxcalans to remain independent and raided their defences for captives for the sacrifice. The warrior who took a Tlaxcalan had more prestige that one who just took a person from a subdued state. As nemesis approached for the Aztec Empire, the Tlaxcalans were being slowly hemmed in by the Aztecs and denied resources that they needed to survive. When Cortes arrived, he was able to use the Tlaxcalans as ‘sepoys’ in the fight against the Aztecs. They provided food, sanctuary and assistance in the fight and the Spanish rewarded them well – until one Spaniard decided that they were not needed anymore.

What Might Have Happened (Take One): The Aztecs, apparently, had the power to crush the Tlaxcalans during any of their wars. Lets assume that they do crush them in 1500. They then spend the next few years until Cortes turns up (in 1519) crushing their independent sprit. When Cortes and Co. arrive, they will arrive in an Aztec empire that is subtly different from OTL. When Cortes heads east, he won’t meet Tlaxcalans, but a large Aztec garrison.

The changes really start at once. Cortes might not go east if he knew that there were no friends awaiting him, but I suspect that he knew very little of the Tlaxcalans before in OTL, so I suspect that he’ll head east anyway. However, the Aztecs will have no doubt of the Tlaxcalans loyalty and they’ll be able to combine the two armies that Cortes defeated individually in OTL at Tlaxicla or at some point just before it. Cortes may try to push the Tlaxcalans into rebellion, but the sheer numbers, weapons and skill of the Aztecs (while the Tlaxcalans will not be so well armed and Cortes’ weapons in limited numbers) will overcome the Spanish. Cortes and Co. will find themselves being sacrificed and perhaps eaten.

This will sign the death knell of anyone who does eat and most of their friends. Disease would spread though the Aztec empire and kill most of the ruling elite. The empire will come apart at the seems, while the Spanish have no information of what lies beyond the Mexican coast. However, Governor Velázquez had dispatched an expedition to Mexico to arrest Cortés and return him to Cuba and, without any advance knowledge, the same thing should happen. Pedro de Alvarado’s force will not be able to arrest Cortes, but will discover a disintegrating empire and no readily apparent wealth.

What Might Have Happened (Take Two): The history of that part of the Aztec empire is blurred, but it appears that at one point the Aztecs were allied with the Tlaxcalans and another city-state, which they later pushed out of the alliance and took over. What if they had stayed allies? Its not too hard a stretch, and this even allows some of the more important flower wars to be continued as a game.

The alliance probably does have effects on Mexico that are beyond my ability to predict, but lets assume that things do continue along the same or similar path until Cortes arrives. Now, in OTL, the Tlaxcalans nearly beat Cortes twice on their own: backed up by the Aztec army that challenged Cortes before Tenoicalian. They’ll win. It will cost them hundreds of warriors, but they’ll bring Cortes and his men down by weight of numbers. Then they’ll eat the bodies, with the results described above, only worse.

The Spanish reaction: Cortes was planning to deliver Mexico to Charles V as a kingdom intact. In OTL, he largely failed, here, he’s dead and the Aztec Empire is disintegrating. Once the Spanish take a careful look at the land, they’ll probably decide that its worthless. Therefore, they’ll grab what they can and head back home. The Spanish did not colonise as an objective in itself and the only nation that did that successfully was England.

So, what do you think? Will Spain become a backwater before its time? Will the French and the English attempt to colonise America without the ghost of another Mexico driving them on? What will happen when Mexico tries to put itself back together?

Thoughts?

Chris

The Flower War