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Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM |
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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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The Lives of Kings Timeline
(One of the things that has always amazed about history is how, with
the nature of monarchies and dictatorships (one and the same to me) so much
relies upon a small group of people. If
something had happened to that small group, or even to just one of them, history
would have been drastically different. So,
in keeping with that thought, I came up with the following concerning the lives
of certain monarchs in the early part of the 20th century and what
impact their deaths or altered lives might have had.) Part I: From the death of Franz Joseph to the March War 1903:
n After a long illness, Emperor Franz Joseph I of Austria dies at the age of 72 on May 17th. His nephew, Archduke Ferdinand, takes the throne and becomes Ferdinand IV, emperor of Austria and King of Hungary. n Within the first year of his reign, the strident and wary new Emperor sets about imposing a reform he feels his empire needs to survive: Trialism, the establishment of a triple monarchy with the Slavs of his realm comprising the third part alongside Austria and Hungary. Despite opposition from his advisors, the Austro-Hungarian elite, and Slav nationalists within and without the empire, Ferdinand pushes ahead with his plan. Options ranging from the restoration of the kingdom to Bohemia to a Slavic kingdom consisting of the provinces of Dalmatia and Slovenia. 1904:
n The ongoing dispute between Japan and Russia over Manchuria and Russia finally culminates in war. On Feb 6, Japan breaks off diplomatic relations with Russia. Two days later they attack Port Arthur and tie up the Russian fleet. Nine days after that, Japanese troops land in Korea. The Russo-Japanese war has begun. (And, as in OTL, it does not go well for Russia.) n In August, Russian Czarina Aleksandra gives birth to a son, Aleksey, who will be slated to be the heir to the Romanov throne. However, tragically, the boy only lives three days, as his birth had been rather difficult. Nicholas’ brother, Grand Duke Mikhail Alexandrovich, remains heir. n As the year draws to a close, Port Arthur, under siege for months, falls to the Japanese. This is only the beginning of a series of setbacks and defeats for Russia, with the battles of Tsushima and Mukden to follow later in the year to come. 1905: n In January, the events of Bloody Sunday, on the 22nd, lead to the first Russian Revolution. Demonstrations sweep across Russia, and even elements of the Russian navy, presently at battle with Japan, revolt. Nicholas, to counter this threat, announces the formation of the Duma, a body of elected representatives who will serve in an advisory capacity for the Russian government. This action, however, only temporarily stems the unrest. n The Tangiers Crisis: In March, Kaiser Wilhelm II visits Morocco in an attempt to intervene in the crisis unfolding there. In spite of treaties that back France’s claim to the country, he guarantees German support for the continued rule of the Sultan and Moroccan independence. The sultan thereafter refuses to give in to French demands and the prospect of a European war grows. However, to counter this, an international conference is called to settle the matter. It will convene in January of the following year. n As part of his plan for trailism, Ferdinand announces the annexation of the province of Bosnia, which the Austro-Hungarians have occupied and administered since the Congress of Berlin in 1878. Ferdinand has decided that this province will act as the centerpiece for the new Kingdom of the Slavs. The new kingdom will also include the provinces of Dalmatia and Slovenia, and its capital will be located in Sarajevo. n Both Serbia and Turkey promptly protest this new development. The Serbs are rather vehement, calling up their reserves and petitioning the other great powers of Europe. They demand the cancellation of the annexation, or, failing that, compensation, be it financial or in the form of a strip of territory that allows them access to the Adriatic. The Turks, on the other hand, call for an international conference so that the nations of Europe can consider the matter. Ferdinand and his government consider the Turks’ proposal, but ignore the Serbs, maintaining that Serbia has no say in the matter. n Despite the formation of the Duma, unrest has continued to plague Russia. Much of it is centered in ethnically non-Russian areas, such as Poland and the Ukraine. A series of demonstrations by different elements occur almost daily in Moscow and St Petersburg, defeats mount up in the war with Japan, and the country appears to be spiraling out of control. Then, on July 2nd, Czar Nicholas, while making a speech in St Petersburg, is gunned down by an assassin. He manages to live through the night before dying the next day. His brother, Mikhail Alexandrovich, becomes Czar Mikhail II. n Taking power amidst chaos, Mikhail decides to follow a cautious course. He immediately begins looking for a way out of the war with Japan, which is already effectively lost. As well, he looks to pull Russia out of the European power games, even if that means abandoning the popular cause of Pan-Slavism and the alliance with France. He believes that this is necessary to deal with the upheaval within the country itself, to close his country until it can present a strong face to the world. As well, he wants to take revenge for the murder of his brother, which in his mind-and the mind of many in the country-is hand in hand with the rebellions. A plan of revenge and repression is drawn up, to be implemented after the immediate danger to his rule has been suppressed. (This would be similar to that which followed the assassination of Alexander II in 1881.) n In response to both the annexation of Bosnia and Ferdinand’s plans for a Slav kingdom, Serbian terrorist groups begin a bombing campaign within Bosnia. In the last two weeks of July, over fifty people are killed by their actions, including two ministers of the Austro-Hungarian government itself in a bombing in Sarajevo on July 28th. Their actions outrage Austria-Hungary, and they blame Serbia, which, in turn, attempts to claim innocence. n In response to the terrorist attacks, Austria-Hungary issues a series of conditions to the government of Serbia on Aug 10th. Amongst these conditions are an acceptance of the annexation of Bosnia, financial compensation for those hurt by the attacks, full access to Serbian territory to conduct investigations and arrests, and a surrendering of all persons within Serbia may have been affiliated with the groups involved. Serbia refuses to meet all of these conditions and instead attempts to negotiate. These negotiations are entirely one-sided. n The ultimatum expires on Aug 13th. Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia and bombs Belgrade. Two weeks later, after fully mobilizing, Hapsburg armies invade. They overwhelm the Serbian capital within a week. The rest of the country continues to fight on from the south. International reaction to the outbreak of war mostly condemns the Austro-Hungarians, with only Germany proving an exception. Russia strongly protests, but, with the death of Nicholas, the still hot war with Japan, and the ongoing revolts, they are unable to do more than that. n Austro-Hungarian diplomats meet with the government of Turkey. With an international conference on the Bosnian annexation now out of the question, Austria-Hungary instead offers to placate Turkey by offering them Serbian territory. Turkey accepts and begins to mobilize their army. On Sep 1st, they invade Serbia from the south. Within weeks, the last Serbian forces have been captured and the entire nation is occupied. Austria-Hungary and Turkey begin to redraw the map of the Balkans. n On Sep 5th, under the mediation of American president Theodore Roosevelt, the Japanese and Russians make peace with the treaty of Portsmouth. Japan retains Korea and gains a protectorate over Manchuria, while Russia hangs onto Port Arthur. (Due to the intervention of the Americans, Japanese designs on Siberia are checked.) n October: The Balkans War: Unhappy with the increased presence of the Ottomans on their borders, Greece, Montenegro, and Bulgaria declare war on Turkey, attacking their newly acquired territory in Serbia and their remaining European territory. Austria-Hungary declares its neutrality, as it is much too busy rounding up (and executing) those who were behind the terrorist attacks. Some remaining Serbian forces rise up and fight the Turks again, joining the other Balkan states. However, the war bogs down and neither side is able to make much headway. n November: The back-and-forth course of reform and repression has failed to quell dissent in Russia. A series of full-fledged ethnic rebellions break out in the west of the empire, as Poles, Ukrainians, Finns, Latvians, Estonians, and Lithuanians all rise up. (It is believed that the Germans are secretly supporting them, but this is never conclusively proven.) At the same time, a socialist uprising breaks out in Moscow, with the rebels winning initial successes and capturing much of the city. The Russian army is still is chaos and is unable to take any concentrated and effective actions right away. n December: After twenty-two days, the rebels in Moscow are defeated. Thirty-eight leading Socialist leaders are executed without a trial. The city is occupied. In the west, gains are made against the Finns and the Ukrainians, but the Russian army has been almost entirely expelled from Poland. The winter puts a damper on much of the fighting and the ethnic rebels are able to consolidate some of their gains. 1906: n On Jan 1st, Ferdinand ushers in the New Year by declaring the formation of the kingdom of Slavia, comprising Bosnia, Slovenia, Dalmatia, and the conquered areas of Serbia. Its capital is Sarajevo. Ferdinand is now Emperor of Austria, King of Hungry, and King of Slavia. n Jan 16th: The Algeciras Conference begins in Algeciras, Spain. (Russia does not send a delegation.) Despite the presence of American president Roosevelt as a mediator-a role he is taking on quite frequently here-the conference swiftly falls apart, due in most part to the unrest that has plagued Europe in the last year. Germany and Austria-Hungary-Slavia line up on one side while France, Britain, Italy (going against their alliance partners) and the US line on the other. On Feb 5th, the talks break down and the conference ends. The crisis and the question of Morocco remain unresolved. n February: Frantic diplomatic negotiations between all the parties involved fail to bring about a resolution. At the same time, the Germans pull off a series of diplomatic coups. First, they arrange for the neutrality of Russia in a possible war by ‘pledging’ full support for the Russian campaign against breakaway ethnicities on Germany’s borders. (Unofficially, they withdraw rumored financial and military help for the rebels.) Then, on an opposite front, they achieve a breakthrough in negotiations with King Leopold II of Belgium. Leopold, a rather unscrupulous monarch who ‘purchased’ his last wife and was responsible for establishing a colonial regime that killed ten million Congolese, accepts the German terms. In exchange for territorial and financial compensation, Leopold will allow German troops to cross Belgian soil. (The compensation is planned to come in the form of French colonial territory and a portion of indemnities from France after a German victory.) This allows the Germans to fully put the Schleiffen Plan into motion, with no worries about Russia in the east. n On Feb 27th, Kaiser Wilhelm declares war on France and the German army begins to mobilize. France declares war and mobilizes the next day. England takes a couple of days before declaring war, and find themselves behind in mobilization. n The Guns of March: As the month begins, German troops sweep through Luxembourg and enter Belgium. As the first week passes, French troops launch an offensive into Alsace and Lorraine, while British troops begin to arrive on the continent. As the second week begins, German troops cross from Belgium into France and begin to envelop Entente forces. Too preoccupied in the west, French forces are unable to stop them. By the 23rd, Paris is surrounded, and hundreds of thousands of French and British troops have been captured. The French government attempts to flee to the south but is captured by and forced into formal armistice talks. As March draws to a close, Germans troops enter Paris, the fighting is effectively over, and the state of war between France and Germany has come to an end. n April: Negotiations between France and Germany. Initial terms are as follows: France is forced to give up large portions of its colonial empire, with the result being that it only retains Algeria and Tunisia in Africa. Germany takes Indochina and much of West Africa, and allows Belgium to expand the Congo at the expense of the French. At the same time, France is forced to de-militarize a northern stretch of territory that borders both Belgium and Germany, and a string of German military bases reaching to the Channel will be established within that stretch. Finally, a financial indemnity is to be paid by the French to the Germans, a portion of which will go to Belgium. n April through June: the continuing war. Despite the capture of much of the BEF in France, Britain refuses to end the war. Several skirmishes occur between the British and German navies, with the British coming out on top. At the same time, British forces attack German colonies, and warfare continues there. Enraged by this, Germany breaks the armistice with France and ends negotiations. German forces begin to disarm and occupy all of France. Germany makes known its intentions to dismantle all of France’s colonial empire, and to annex chunks of French territory. As well, the Germans blackmail the British, using the lives of captured British soldiers as collateral. n Unable to abandon their soldiers, and to accept the complete decimation of their French ally, the British come to the table in late June. The terms previously discussed serve as the template for negotiations. As the year closes, British POWs return home, British forces leave the territory they conquered abroad from the Germans, German troops leave France for the demilitarized zones, French colonials began an exodus back to the mother country, and the new French government (soon to fall in a matter of months) begins to make indemnity payments. The March war finally ends. 1907: n Flushed with victory, Germany turns its gaze east. There, it sees Russia regaining its former empire as the last of the Finns and Ukrainians surrender, and only the Poles are left holding out. Deciding that perhaps the best thing for Germany in this case would be the existence of a Polish buffer state, the Kaiser blackmails the Czar into negotiations. A small Poland is created that is officially still part of Russia, but in reality is independent and dependent on Germany for its survival. This finally brings an end the revolt that has consumed Russia for almost two years, and allows that nation to regroup. The internal campaigns of repression intensify. n May: The Balkans War comes to an end, as a string of defeats for Turkey brings about the reappearance of Serbia on the map, increased territory for Greece, Bulgaria, and Montenegro, and the pushing back on the Turks almost all the way to Asia Minor. Still fresh from their own wars and problems, the Great Powers do little and show little interest. Austria-Hungary-Slavia is disturbed by Serbia’s resurrection, but is tired of war. n Within months, the former Balkan allies are at each other’s throats, guerilla warfare is rages across much of their newly acquired territory, and it appears another war is imminent. To be continued… Jarrett Holst |
