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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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A Different
Lancaster House Agreement What actually
happened? In 1978, after 14 years of insurgency warfare, President
Ian Smith of the Republic of Rhodesia met with moderate Rhodesian African
Nationalists at Governor’s Lodge in the capital city of Salisbury. This
meeting paved the way for an interim government made up of people of all
ethnicities in preparation for free and fair elections at a later date. A whites-only referendum was held in January 1979, which
saw an 85% “yes” vote, largely based on the provisions that any future
government would reserve seats for the white minority in both parliament and the
cabinet. In the subsequent elections, Able Muzorewa, a Methodist bishop and his
UANC won. The country became known as Zimbabwe Rhodesia to reflect its power
sharing scheme. Great Britain, Rhodesia’s overlord until Ian Smith
declared independence in 1965 (incidentally only the second nation to make such
a declaration from Britain, the first of course being America), did not
recognise the legitimacy of the elections, mainly because the political leaders
of the communist backed insurgents had not been on the ballot. Britain forced a meeting of all leaders, including Joshua
Nkomo of the predominantly Ndebele ZAPU party and Robert Mugabe of the
predominantly Shona ZANU party, temporarily allied as the Patriotic Front, at
Lancaster House in London. Lancaster House set the road to a “full free election”,
which ended up seeing Mugabe and ZANU win. Leaving aside all the charges of
electoral rigging, intimidation, and the mind boggling actions of a Britain lead
by Thatcher with all of the Cold War connotations of giving power to a man whose
“freedom fighting” has been backed by China, we basically see the
foundations for Zimbabwe’s current troubles. But what if the Lancaster House agreement had not seen an
election forced through in 1980, after Britain had temporarily retaken colonial
control of the country. What if a compromise had been reached, such as a lifting
of sanctions in exchange for a full election in 1985, in which no seats were
reserved for whites and everyone was to be on the ballot. Point of Departure The Lancaster House Agreement of 1979 puts in place a five
year plan for economic rebuilding of Zimbabwe Rhodesia to be followed by full,
free, and fair elections in April of 1985. British Troops are deployed to help
the Rhodesian Defence Force keep the peace. UN and NATO observers are also
deployed to monitor the interim government and the economic rebuilding. What might happen Given the historical industry and innovation of Rhodesians
in general (the country had survived 15 years of sanctions despite being
land-locked), a period of free trade would have seen what was already
essentially a first world country continue to expand. With moderate and educated African Nationalists help,
slowly but surely the radical fringe of Patriotic Front support would have
dwindled, with many of the members of ZAPA and ZANU joining the Muzorewa’s
UANC. Without being fired up by what could have been considered a
white Rhodesian defeat in the guerrilla war, less people would have voted for
the “victors” of the conflict, and allow themselves to take more considered
views. Without a Socialist African government taking power, there
would not have been the mass exodus of white Rhodesians, fearing an anti-white
massacre, from the country, which caused a massive brain drain for the emerging
nation. These people took skills and the capacity to earn foreign currency with
them when they left, if they had stayed the country could only have benefited. By the time 1985 roles around, Mugabe and Nkomo find
themselves on the popular fringe, their foreign communist support from China and
the USSR respectively having dried up as their power base ebbed away. The elections see a resounding victory for Muzorewa and
other moderate African Nationalists. Although much reduced, there are a
disproportionately large number of white MPs, mainly from regions that have a
large number of white owned commercial farms. There is also a large number of
white cabinet members, including Ian Smith himself who is named Minister of
Defence. The patriotic front sees only a handful of seats fall into
its hands, and infighting and tribal tensions immediately break out between the
constituent parties, effectively ending their potential as a unified opposition
party. Scattered insurgency related incidents continue, conducted by fanatical
communist insurgents, but they do not have much effect, largely due to their
ex-comrades now serving with the Zimbabwe Rhodesia Armed Forces. With moderate African leaders in power, there is none of
the anti-contraception sentiment that occurred in OTL when certain African
leaders criticised contraception as the white man’s plot to breed out the
black man. Also, without Mugabe’s anti-British and anything English
philosophy, the Catholic Church is not named as the State Religion, and that
institutions anti-contraception stance is not as powerful. This means that HIV does not spread as precipitously as it
does in OTL. Also, with a world class medical establishment in country, the
effects of disease in general are lessened. There is no uncontrolled population
explosion in the country, just a gradual growth, allowing infrastructure to
expand at a similar rate without cracking at the edges. With the example of peaceful multi-racial coexistence at
its northern border, South Africa begins to ease its own draconian institutions,
possibly resulting in an earlier end to Apartheid and earlier general elections
than in OTL. With responsible government in place in Zimbabwe Rhodesia,
there are no confiscations of white owned farms, leading to increased prosperity
through cash crops such as tobacco and coffee, as well as to the generation of
enough food to feed Zimbabwe Rhodesia and any two other nations. The land inequality issue is handled sensibly through the
state purchase of unused or under used farms from their owners and setting up
modern agricultural communes, complete with training in modern farming methods
and environmental conservation. Overall, a huge opportunity for prosperity and racial harmony may have been lost with the Lancaster House agreement, but we will never know for sure.
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