| Petrov Pushes The Button by Jeff Provine 
  
   Author 
    
    says: we're very pleased to present a new story from Jeff Provine's 
  
  excellent blog This 
    
    Day in Alternate History. Please note that the opinions expressed in 
  
  this post do not necessarily reflect the views of the author(s). 
     
      By September 26th 1983,
     
      Please click the
      
       icon to follow us on Twitter. the Cold War stood as the United 
      States and Soviet Union armed each with far more missiles than needed to 
      wipe out all life on the surface of the Earth. There would be no winner in 
      World War 3.
       
      Both sides knew that the best they could hope was to destroy the other as 
      brutally as they themselves were destroyed. Key to this idea of "mutual 
      assured destruction" was finding out as quickly as possible that the other 
      side had launched, thus enabling missiles to fire back before being 
      destroyed in their silos.
       
      While the US had its own systems, the Soviet Union developed the Oko 
      satellite system to give early warning about missile launches. In 1982, 
      the project was unveiled and declared ready. Detection happened within 
      thirty seconds, leaving ample time for counterstrike, provided crews and 
      leaders were ready at any time for launch.
      
      "Why would India suffer? More likely China would be 
      the one to suffer whilst India misses out. And I can't see Brazil 
      suffering anything either so Argentina would be kept in check" - reader's 
      comment In the fall of 1983, political intelligence was on edge. The 
      Soviets had shot down a South Korean airliner that had violated their 
      airspace, killing 269 civilians, many of them American, including U.S. 
      Congressman Larry McDonald.
       Although the diplomatic fires had been nearly put out, both sides were 
      anxious, especially the Soviet Union with the seemingly gun-happy American 
      President Reagan. Soon after, NATO began exercises in Able Archer 83, 
      which simulated escalating conflict and a first-strike nuclear release. 
      The matter was not strictly related, but the KGB did not want to risk the 
      exercise being a cover for preparation to attack the Soviet Union.
 "India and Brazil would doubtless suffer not only 
      from the environmental effewcts of a major nuclear exchange but from the 
      evisceration of the global economy. Even if the fallout and climatic 
      effects were less severe than some anticipated they might have been, they 
      would surely have been devastating, and the secondary effect of thre 
      disappearance of nations critical to the global economy, particularly the 
      USA, would have meant even greater disaster." - reader's commentsJust 
      after midnight on September 26, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov 
      (pictured) was on duty when the Oko system's computers reported a launch 
      from the United States headed toward the Soviet Union. It was a single 
      missile, and a nuclear attack would certainly be all-out, so Petrov noted 
      the alarm but decided to declare it false. When more launches began to be 
      detected, Petrov became nervous. Five missiles were now headed at the 
      Soviet Union, and it was his duty to report. In a hurried decision, he 
      called his superiors with the news.
 
 Moscow immediately surged into activity. Panicked, sleepless people began 
      to question the fallibility of the new system as well as their own lives, 
      which very well could be at their ends. Land-based radar would not pick up 
      incoming missiles until minutes before they arrived, leaving scant time to 
      launch the counterstrike. With only slight information, the order to 
      attack was given.
 
 "Geographically (as well as meteorologically with 
      the trade winds - http://maps.howstuffworks.com/world-prevailing-winds-map.htm 
      ), India would do about the best of northward major countries with the 
      Himalayas blocking north-coming radiation, though it\'d still leak 
      through, as it would anywhere. China would be straight agony as the 
      radiation marched across the Asian steppes. Brazil would take a lesser 
      hit, mostly to the north, but I\'d imagine them trying to minimize loss 
      would hold back their anti-Argentine efforts. As for the British and 
      French and the others, I\'d imagine they\'d set the nukes aside and worry 
      about how to save their populations. All this is, of course, from a more 
      limited US-SU only trade. We humans could\'ve scalded the crust of the 
      Earth off if we wanted" - author's responseIn reality, the missiles 
      were glitches within the Oko system. This would not be determined until 
      the next morning, long after the strike on the United States. In what had 
      been the evening hours, the Americans were hit in major cities and 
      military bases. Millions were vaporized as they sat down to dinner. The 
      American systems had detected the launches, and so their own 
      counter-assault began, slaughtering millions more in Russia. 
      Electromagnetic interference destroyed most communications, leaving the 
      rest of the world in frozen wonder at what had happened. As news came to 
      light over the day, it was obvious that the worst had come.
 
 Trade winds picked up the fallout, spreading it through the northern 
      hemisphere. Europeans tried to flee en masse, which turned the entire 
      continent into a war zone. For months, survivors would suffer radiation 
      poisoning and widespread destruction simply trying to escape. Nothing 
      remained of the vast continents of North America, Europe, and north Asia 
      except deadly wastelands filled with wreckage that could not be harvested 
      for years or centuries.
 
 The southern hemisphere fared better, but fear, material shortages, and 
      famines during the long Nuclear Winters would cause the deaths of billions 
      more. Australia and South Africa led the nations of the British 
      Commonwealth in restoring something of world order around the Indian 
      Ocean. Much of their resources would be spent harboring refugees and 
      helping to end the trauma of the millions poisoned in India. Meanwhile, 
      Argentina stepped up as leader of South America, uniting the countries 
      around it in fascist extremism. Enemies of the state were banished to 
      northern Brazil, where the edge of livability was a horrid fringe of 
      disease, famine, and death.
 
 
 
     
     Author 
    says in reality Petrov second-guessed the system. It was apparent within 
    minutes that Oko, which he had not fully trusted in his opinion, was flawed. 
    He later said, "I had a funny feeling in my gut," and reflected that 
    launching only five missile was ludicrous. Later, the glitched launches 
    would be determined as fluke angles of sunlight in the atmosphere, and 
    Soviet commanders were embarrassed of breaks in the system. While initially 
    praised but brushed aside in a cover-up, Petrov would be honored at the 
    United Nations in 2006. Even though layers of agreement among Soviet 
    leadership were required for nuclear launch, he was, arguably, the man who 
    single-handedly saved the Earth. No First Use and defensive-only policies 
    have since come into effect for most of the nuclear-wielding nations. To view guest historian's comments on this post please visit the
    
    Today in Alternate History web site.
 
 
     Jeff Provine, Guest Historian of
    
    Today in Alternate History, a Daily Updating Blog of Important Events In 
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