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Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM |
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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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Vietnam
Averted This is
one of those AHs that seemed extremely possible to those in the front line, but
less possible to the REMFs, who had political concerns to worry about.
It is known that Ho Cho Minh was (at least in 1944) an admirer of the US
and he asked for US assistance, offering in exchange to fight the Japanese and
perhaps their puppet Vichy forces. The
OSS agents were very keen on the deal, but Washington did not want to annoy the
French, as the deal had included the US preventing the French from trying to
regain their colony. This mistake
led to much bitterness directed against America, pushed Minh into communist arms
and led directly to the Vietnamese War. Let’s
us presume that the US has an injection of realpolik thinking, or possibly FDR
continues his aversion to the European Empires.
Deciding that the Japanese remments need to be defeated while the Burma
War is just beginning, FDR orders the US to supply Minh and accept his terms. The
French under DeGaulle would have had an absolute fit.
However, it is hard to see what they could have done about it.
The Vichy troops had been practically interned and disarmed by the
Japanese by this point. Even were they free, they were demoralised, they just wanted
to go home. France had almost no
navy left, certainly not one capable of sending and supporting troops at that
distance without US assistance. The
French will probably refuse to recognise IndoChinese independence and block
their admission to the new UN. They
may also consider breaking their alliance, but that would be economic and
political suicide, particularly if they had none of their undeserved trimmings
of victory. The US
arms and trains the IndoChinese as the war nears its end. The IndoChinese clear out the Japanese earlier than OTL,
making the reconquest of Singapore and Burma easier.
Minh is encouraged to form a reasonably democratic government, in line
with the US model, in hopes of preventing the IndoChinese mishmash from
exploding or separating. Truman
would probably put Indochina into the Marshall Plan in exchange for Minh
refusing to accept assistance from the USSR or communist china. From
this flow vast changes to the cold war. Indochina
is developed very quickly with US investment and advice, making it one of the
earliest tigers on the Asian scene. Instead
of a major war and much bitterness, Indochina’s population grows rapidly,
outracing Japan’s economy while the Japanese are held down.
Indochina sends a few regiments to the Korean War and help hold the line
against communism. Absent
of the Vietnamese bases, the USSR would probably court India more than OTL,
exchanging weapons for bases. This
would probably push the US into developing Pakistan to the same level as
Indochina. This in turn would push
reforms into Afghanistan, providing a trigger for WW3.
Pakistani success would probably lead to similar investment across the
Muslim world, perhaps averting the Iranian revolution.
The US
remains confident longer. National
Service (conscription, the draft) stays longer.
Without the Vietnamese war, the leftists have less influence on US
politics, keeping the US intervening. Back in
the pacific, Indochina becomes one of the most powerful nations in the region,
deploying naval fleets and nuclear weapons.
Its example is spreading the ideal of democratic states into Communist
China. Basically, at the price of
pissing off the French, the whole pacific basin is far more stable. Comments?
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