Síocháin - Peace in Ireland

Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

Síocháin - Peace in Ireland.

I will not have one of Collins Body Guards, wrestle his chief to the ground, when the shots start at Bleanablah. My favourite scenario but I've done that.

I won't go back and stage the coup in Dublin in 38.
Start with Dev. Everything, whether we like or it or not, begins and ends with him. ( I don't but this is a minority view, in my Island, indeed in my family. Please do check it is not Heekin Senior that you start talking to about Irish politics. As his response will be different)

Dev dies on the operating table in late 1940. Or really fun, he commits suicide due to his mental illness. Publicly is better because suicide is a mortal sin. Dev's mental Illness was known about, in government circles. It was not revealed to the public until the 1960s. (On a side note whilst Dev was having an attack of nerves. Thus Hors de combat-Gaelic English French I'll pick a language. I promise! Dev's Volunteers successfully engaged the British army. Surely a moral for Irish history)

Churchill sabre-rattles a bit, over the Ports .Yet nothing comes of it. Except that he manages to bully us into keeping Atiken out of the top job. Atiken was seen as pro Axis, by the British. I would not go that far, but he was unable or unwilling to check his Anti British sentiments. Remember this is the idiot that decided to embarrass FDR over Breakfast in DC. Asking if the USA would defend Eire against a British attack. See my earlier piece Breakfast with Sean

Lemass goes to the US as Minister of supply, and works out a deal with FDR. Short of war the Irish do more. (US inspectors, under some diplomatic cover to watch for Axis spies. Keep the IRA in Check. We were doing this. However an American will from time to time, visit the interment camp. We allow more use of transhipment for food and such) We've expelled the Axis ambassadors. There is a bigger OSS presence in Ireland. There is a larger better equipped Irish military. So if Irish air corps craft spot a U-Boat.....they can enforce territorial waters. Irish pilots broadcasting from their planes that a U-boat has been sighted off the coast of Cork. Won't go un noticed
However there is a minor crisis in Ireland. Douglas Hyde steps into the Breach, reassuring the Irish that is business as usual. Gaining himself a position of affection and respect in Irish hearts. Now Mr Hyde was an old Anglo Irish protestant. More inclining toward Ireland Gaelic rather then Ireland free. However he does manage to become God father to a faction of FF lead by Lemas. In short Ireland is bit more nervous about confronting the UK. This is a major memtic shift in Irish politics.

Its Traynor not Dev as Taoiseach for the rest of the war. Sorry Emergency. Mr Devaleria does not go to the German embassy to sign the condolence book for Herr Hitler. Churchill does not make that jibe about Irish ports in his victory speech. Dev does not make his rebuttal.
So Fine Gael take the Presidency and PM( I realize I am using English terms. A great concession and one that should be recognized with cash.) So we have a different 1940's. FG take the credit for the economy. Its doing well by Irish standards. (So Daddy goes without shoes for a summer, but can afford the Bus fair into town to see them.)
Fine Gael get a majority. They form a Government The FF vote is split. Atiken leads the Green faction to an earlier death in Irish politics, then in OTL Clan na Poblachta don't hold any offices, but they split FF's already split vote. One must remember Brendan Behans maxim the first business of any Irish organization is the split. So the Republic isn't an issue as such. With the OSS actions and more US money and the Anti communists of FG in office Remember Fine Gael is the Party of O Duffy the man who would have lead the Green Legion to storm Moscow. Eire does join NATO. (Dev will not crudely link it to partition. One suspects he will be enjoying a warmer climate then Ireland provides.) With better links to the US we get the Loan that we needed in the 1940-'s.The Irish ambassador had to wait until the British signed our credentials. This was a major problem

Costello does not go to Canada, but rather Douglas Hyde. Who had links with Canada. So Costello does not sit in front of a model of roaring Meg. A cannon from the siege of Derry. According to hoary myth storm out to proclaim the republic fortified by good Canadian whiskey. We're still nervous about declaring a republic, and without the Clan in Government FG decide to let sleeping dogs lie. It drives Costello nuts, but Hyde doesn't like it. Costello has seen what the issue does to FF.

Hence our 1949 and Ulster's election are not per se referenda on Partition. So one of the Unionist MPS will not feel the need to transverse his constituency on a white horse with a Black thorn Rod. The issue begins to die down. It does have one last hurrah as it splits FF after Lemass has started his Boom. FG becomes the natural party of Irish politics. Fianna Fiall is broken for a generation

Ulster is doing better. The Welfare state. The IRA are not the problem they will be so they don't need to spend so much on security Plus the Labour party in the North is
not wiped out. or rather ghettoised as the SDLP. SDLP is more of a Labour party then OTL. Also from the right of centre there are a few progressive Unionist MPs. FG has kept the IRA down. In OTL the IRA were in decline in the 1960's . In Ireland they are facing the Heirs of the Pro treaty side of the civil war. With NATO support. CIA, the transatlantic supply lines are down. Also Eire can deal with the security side of the Partition issue through NATO

Irelands stay in the commonwealth, and deal with Ulster through it. The Clash over sovereignty with the British is less. The anniversary of the rising in 1966 may raise Ulster's hackles. That's a fly in this ointment. However is will die down. Oh and the Irish get the opt out of the USA's 1965 immigration bill. NATO, Irish votes. So the skilled emigrants of the 1960s. Return to Ireland in 1980's. Leading to the Celtic tiger roaring in the 1980s.

If the civil rights crisis breaks turns ugly as it does in OTL, The UK and Ireland reparation quietly in 1970. British army keeps the peace until the Irish army and Gardai move in. Some population transfer, but grants and loans.

Or

Nasty British government refuse to deal with Ulster in 69. It tells Lynch. He can have Derry back on the UK terms. Catholics of Ulster told the UK doesn't care. British army dumps the Catholics west of the Bann. Ulster is wired in.
Flare ups on border and occasional bombs. Irish spite votes in the UN. Ireland more isolationist Ireland is a EU basket case. But no PIRA. Messy but workable.

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