The Graveyard of Nanking

Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

The Graveyard of Nanking

Christopher G. Nuttall

In December 1937, the Japanese army marched into Nanking and took over. Soon, over half a million Chinese civilians were raped, tortured and murdered. It was the forgotten holocaust of world war two. The western shame was culminated in the destruction of the USS Panay, a US gunboat, by Japanese planes. Many other Chinese owe their lives to the brave efforts of a handful of westerners, including the German Nazi John Rabe, the American Wilhelmina Vautrin and Doctor Robert Wilson, and a few others. Their courage resulted in them suffering along with their Chinese friends and, in the case of Rabe, their own governments. The bravery of a man who dared to try to bring the ‘minor matter’ of the slaughter of ‘subhumans’, to the attention of Adolf Hitler can only be admired. Rabe was very lucky to survive the war.

It is the great shame of the world that the holocaust was ignored, even after the Japanese surrender there has been no Japanese acknowledgement of the crimes of their past. However, what might it take to bring Nanking to the full attention of the world at large? Thinking about that, let’s start changing the times.

The ‘safety zone’ of Nanking, a place where the Americans and others attempted to preserve as a haven for Chinese, hung by a thread more then once. Lets assume that the Japanese army forces an entry to the zone, and compounds its crime by raping the American women and executing the men. This new atrocity comes to the attention of John Rabe, who, being a man of honour, decides to let the world know what has happened. He informs the commanding officer of the Panay, and suggests that the man waits until the ship is in transit before sending a radio description of the crime. The commander lands a force of marines with instructions to free the prisoners before leaving, then proceeds down, escorting two oil tankers.

Unfortunately for the Panay, the Japanese planned to sink the ship to test US resolve. Unfortunately for the Japanese, the Panay has almost finished its report – without mentioning the source – when the Japanese attack the ship. To the US public, it looks like a cowardly attempt to hide their crimes by killing more Americans. The US is in a war fever. Roosevelt, who in OTL attempted to hide the Japanese guilt, is forced to slap new sanctions on the Japanese, dependent upon them withdrawing from China. The US starts gearing up for war like they did after Pearl Harbour, doubling their military power in the pacific by January 1938, fortifying the Philippines and starting the constructions of new battleships and carriers.

(AN: Quite why Roosevelt attempted to hide the Japanese guilt over the Panay is uncertain. Please mail me if you have any thoughts.)

Perhaps worse, for the Japanese, the British have been induced to allow far more supplies to pass though Hong Kong and India to the nationalist Chinese. This support helps the Chinese bleed the Japanese army in a nasty series of counter-attacks around Nanking. The US marines landed by the Panay act in a consultancy role to the Chinese forces. The Japanese, however, have discovered Rabe’s ‘duplicity’ and they execute him in February 1938. This annoys Hitler to some degree, while he does not approve of Rabe’s liberal tendencies, he cannot afford to appear weak. He sends supplies to the nationalist Chinese and pushes Italy to do the same.

When they realise the scope of the disaster, the Japanese authorities react pretty much as they did in OTL. Rather than blame the whole disaster on a few officers, who can be quickly disposed of, they attempt to convince the world that it never happened. However, the US is reading the Japanese diplomatic codes and they know that the Japanese are trying to hide their crimes. The US build-up continues and Roosevelt demands strict terms from Japan as a price for ending the sanctions. In short, the US wants Japan to pay a huge compensation to China and withdraw completely from the mainland. The Japanese are unwilling to do this.

As March 1938 continues, an unusual coalition force assembles in Indochina. Mussolini has sent Italian planes, ships and submarines to the region. Italian planes are soon in service with the Chinese, doing better than one might expect, as Japanese planes at that point were less competitive and unused to direct resistance. Hitler has sent several brigades, along with the first of the Panzer divisions, and as much of the German air force as he can spare. This has the side effect of convincing people in France, Czechoslovakia and Britain that the reports of the German air forces strength are greatly exaggerated. The USSR starts a massive military build-up along the Manchurian border, supporting the Chinese communists and provoking trouble with Japan.

The Spanish civil war, which is in full swing, slows down a little as supplies from the two sides sponsors are redirected to the Far East. Slowly, the increase in industry and popular support tips the balance to the republicans, as they grant land rights to the peasants and strip the church of much of its power.

Britain is a less eager parcipitent in the build-up, simply because she had much more to lose. She has increased the speed of the building of Singapore and has been borrowing some of the American supplies that were meant for China to strengthen British defences in India and Hong Kong. She has also convinced FDR to give the British an American guarantee of their territory in the event of a full-scale war with Japan or anyone else.

Desperate, the Japanese army stages a coup and takes over Tokyo, determined to fight to the death. Japanese forces attack Hong Kong and French Indochina. There is a very confused amount of fighting as the coalition forces all attempt to fight the war according to their own ideas, the Italians do very badly in most places, while the French do a little better (revealing several flaws in their army and air force) and the Germans do very well indeed, though hampered by supply difficulties and the Japanese belief that the Germans are allied to them. The US navy, combined with the British forces in the Far East and some Italian units, attempts to bring the Japanese fleet to battle. The Japanese do very well in the battle, but are defeated in the second battle of Tishemini, when the combined forces destroy much of the Japanese navy. Most of the Japanese ships which fought in OTL are not built yet.

The Japanese launch several offences on the Chinese mainland, intended to destroy the Chinese forces and drive the coalition forces back. They smash huge Chinese armies, but sheer numbers, advised by Americans and Germans, bleed them white. The USSR does not help them by launching an offensive into Manchuria. This takes four-to-one causalities, but succeeds in pushing the Japanese back. Revolts in Korea and other parts of China continue the Japanese fall. The USSR sets up Mao and the Chinese communists up as the government of the liberated zone, setting the stage for a Chinese civil war.

British forces recaptured Hong Kong in late august, recovering most of the territory intact. Their relations with China are not helped when Chieng demands the return of the island, claiming that he did not agree for its transfer to Britain. This issue is papered over by the US, who arrange an limited power-sharing scheme.

The Japanese send out peace feelers in September, as the submarine blockade is destroying their economy. This provokes a serious argument among the coalition, as many feel that they should be rewarded with territory, and the Nationalist Chinese are demanding the return of Manchuria, which is now held by Mao. The brief Nanking war ends when Japan hands over Formosa to Britain, small islands to Italy and Germany, recognises the Nationalist Government of china, and pays massive reparations to the victims of Nanking. Now, the effects of all this.

Short Term Effects

World War Two is delayed by at least three years and probably longer. The Germans need to build up their supplies and armies again and they will face tougher opponents. However, the west may feel less inclined to oppose them as they did help out with the Japanese.

The after-effects of the great depression will have ended sooner as military spending in America and elsewhere increases.

The Finish Campaign (the Winter War) of 1939/1940 will be delayed as Stalin absorbs the lessons of the Manchurian campaign and fixes some of the problems of the soviet army. However, when (if) that war comes, Finland will be steamrollered, as the red army will be more capable.

The Chinese Civil war will start as soon as one of the two sides feels secure enough in its territory to want to push their opponents out of the country. With Russia backing the Communists and Germany backing the Nationalists (and probable American and British support), the war would be extremely nasty and violent. Hitler may decide to ally with Poland and go for a knock out by invading Russia. Now, that is a campaign I’d like to see war-gamed.

The current polish government will fall. This may seem like a stretch, but the poles were supposed to have had a tacit alliance with Japan against the USSR. When Japan fell, the poles who supported that alliance would have been thrown out of office.

Medium Term Effects

If World War Two is delayed by more than three years, its possible that one or more of the sides in the first line up will have nuclear bombs and the method of delivering them. In which case, much of Europe would be destroyed.

Problems with the French and Italian armies would be fixed as soon as possible. They would be much tougher customers when the war happened.

Japan would probably become a major player again by 1950 at the latest. I suspect that they would either try to expand again by military power or concentrate on economic power.

Long Term Effects

The de-colonisation of the Far East will be delayed for some years. I can’t see the British holding on to India past 1960, but the fall of Japan would set any nationalist movements back years.

China would have – with reason – a huge grudge against Japan. In OTL, much of the Nanking atrocity has passed unnoticed because of politics and the cold war. Here, China may be bitterly opposed to Japan gaining any sort of power.

How plausible is all this?

Would the Japanese really have killed Americans? I suspect that they would have liked too, centuries of slights and insults does that to a race, but their government tried to keep a lid on it until Pearl Harbour. The Panay incident was one of the failures of this policy.

Would the American public really have gone mad? I think they would have. A great number of racists were willing to believe anything about ‘inferior’ races and the news of Americans being raped would have become a major issue.

Would Hitler really have offered to help? I flipped a coin on that one because predicting Hitler’s actions is impossible with any degree of certainty. He could not have allowed Germans to be manhandled; this even let him make capital out of an enemy of his rule.

Would the Japanese lose the war? I suspect that they would. Most of the forces that fought in WW2 weren’t built yet and it would be a battleship war. Britain and America could have swamped the Japanese by sheer numbers, if nothing else. Less harsh terms because there was no surprise attack like Pearl Harbour.

Would the Spanish Civil war really be affected? Less supplies equals less chance to fight. I suspect that the war would drag on for a while longer than in OTL or the republicans would wise up and arm the peasants.

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