No Washington Treaty

These two scenarios were generated as part of an academic exercise to evaluate who ‘won’ the Washington Conference from a military point of view. The basic thesis was to try and work out what would have happened had there been no treaty. The relative historical strengths of the major naval powers were then compared with what their relative strengths would have been in the absence of a Treaty.

There is considerable uncertainty over what would have happened in the absence of a treaty, given the apparent mismatch between the building plans of the respective navies, and the funding intentions of their Governments. There was also a degree of interaction between the actions of the different nations due to the competitive nature of the environment. It would therefore have been quite unrealistic to attempt to create a single alternate history scenario for the purpose of comparison.

Two independent scenarios were therefore developed reflecting differing levels of world prosperity in the 1920s. In the first scenario “Frustrated Ambitions” funding is very tight, and the major navies all have to make painful cuts. In the second scenario “The Race to Armageddon” much more progress on the building programmes can be achieved. There is no pretence that either of these scenarios represents an accurate assessment of exactly what would have happened without a Washington Treaty – rather they are intended to represent the possible range of outcomes which might have occurred.

These scenarios are part of an ongoing project, and comment, criticisms and suggestions are always welcome. The author can be contacted on david_chessum@hotmail.com.

In this scenario, the financial chickens come home to roost, and Naval Staffs around the world are forced to accept painful economies.

The war-weary British Government is unwilling to commit the funds needed to maintain Naval Supremacy. New-ship construction is pared back, and older ships scrapped. Traditional standards of power are abandoned, and the determining factor for fleet size is supposed to be a target of being able to deploy a fleet of 12 battleships and 8 battlecruisers to Singapore within 6 weeks, however even this proves to be very difficult. The two Courageous class large light cruisers are converted to Aircraft Carriers in slow time during the 1920s.

Australia scraps the battlecruiser Australia without replacement while Canada disbands her seagoing squadron.

U.S. Congress becomes more isolationist and refuses to fund completion of the 1916 programme. Those ships sufficiently advanced are completed in slow time and the remainder cancelled. A limited reconstruction programme to convert older battleships to oil fuel and increase the elevation of main armament turrets is commenced. Japan's increasing strength is of concern to US defence planners, worried about the threat to the US position in the Philippines, however Congress refuses to fund the development of fortifications or bases west of Hawaii, and the US continues to rely on the US Navy being able to fight it's way across the Pacific to deal with any threat to the Philippines.

In spite of resentment at the failure of the Washington Treaty Conference, which the Japanese blamed on US attempts to force Japan to accept a 60 percent ratio, the Japanese Government, struggling to cope with the heavy financial burden of the Naval Construction Programme, is forced to extend the time-line for implementation of the 8-8 Programme. Ships under construction are completed with minor delays, but new construction is deferred for up to five years. The Navy Office is furious at this back-down, and actively seeks to maximise the capability of the remaining battleships by refitting and modernising them.

The Anglo-Japanese Alliance continues in its current form. For England, this enables her to avoid the expense of maintaining a significant fleet in the East. For Japan this alliance, in conjunction with American Isolationism, gives her the opportunity to expand her influence in China and South East Asia as long as she is careful to avoid overtly challenging key US or UK interests.

The French Government, bankrupted by the war and the cost of rebuilding their country, show no inclination to rebuild their battle-fleet. The battleships under construction are cancelled and scrapped, and the older semi-dreadnoughts broken up. The limited building programmes that do survive focus on submarines, fast cruisers and large destroyers.

Italy follows the world-wide trend, avoiding major expenditure. Repairs to the Leonardo da Vinci are abandoned, and she is scrapped along with all of the pre-dreadnoughts.

The United States of America

The USA will dispose of all pre-Dreadnoughts by the end of 1922. The vessels retained will be:

South Carolina, Michigan, Delaware, North Dakota, Florida, Utah, Wyoming, Arkansas. New York, Texas, Nevada, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Mexico, Mississippi, Idaho, Tennessee, California, and Maryland.

Colorado and West Virginia will complete in 1923. South Carolina and Michigan will be placed in reserve

Washington will complete in 1924. South Carolina and Michigan will be disposed of.

The South Dakota and Lexington class ships are cancelled. Two of the Lexington class battlecruisers are converted to aircraft carriers.

The machinery and armour from the remaining cancelled ships are used for reconstructing the existing battleships, and the opportunity is also taken during these refits to increase the maximum elevation of the main armament.

The British Empire

The British Empire shall dispose of all twelve-inch gunned ships (except for Australia) by the end of 1922. The vessels retained are:

Orion*, Monarch*, Conqueror*, Thunderer*, Erin*, Centurion, Ajax, King George V*, Benbow, Emperor of India, Marlborough, Iron Duke, Valiant, Malaya, Barham, Warspite, Queen Elizabeth, Resolution, Ramillies, Revenge, Royal Oak, Royal Sovereign, Courageous*, Glorious*, Tiger*, Lion*, Princess Royal*, Repulse, Renown, Hood and Australia*.

In 1924 the conversion of Courageous and Glorious to aircraft carriers will commence. Orion, Monarch, Conqueror, Thunderer and Erin will be disposed of. Centurion and Ajax will be reduced to reserve.

In 1926 two G3 class battlecruisers will be completed, Tiger, Lion and Princess Royal will be disposed of; Repulse and Renown will be placed in reserve.

In 1927 two further G3 class battlecruisers will be completed. Centurion, Ajax and King George V will be disposed of; Benbow, Emperor of India, Marlborough and Iron Duke, will be placed in reserve.

Japan

Japan will retain the following ships at the end of 1922. Ships marked with an asterisk will be in reserve:

Kashima*, Katori*, Ikoma, Ibuki, Kurama, Satsuma, Aki, Settsu, Kongo, Kirishima, Hiei, Haruna, Fuso, Yamashiro, Hyuga, Ise, Nagato and Mutsu.

In 1924, Kaga and Tosa will be completed. Ikoma, Ibuki, Kurama, Satsuma and Aki will be placed into reserve.

In 1925, Amagi and Akagi will be completed. Kashima and Katori will be disposed of.

In 1926 Atago will be completed. Settsu will be placed into reserve. Ikoma, Ibuki, Kurama, Satsuma and Aki will be disposed of.

Britain proceeds with the construction of the 1922 and 1923 capital ships, but is then forced to pause new construction due to financial weakness. The older dreadnoughts armed with twelve-inch guns are scrapped, but a limited refurbishment programme is initiated for the remaining super-dreadnought battleships and battlecruisers. The two Courageous class large light cruisers are converted to aircraft carriers. Concern about the recent US building plans is acute, but Britain simply cannot afford to match the US construction programme.

Australia, while concerned about the growing naval strength of Japan and the US in the Pacific, is unable to afford a replacement for the obsolescent HMAS Australia due to the massive increase in the size and cost of contemporary Capital Ships. Instead she opts for taking over a slightly less elderly second-hand battlecruiser (Lion) from the Royal Navy, which she modernises while undertaking an ongoing construction programme of cruisers and submarines.

Alarmed by the growing hostility between the UK and the US, Canada is forced to acknowledge both her own vulnerability to any attack from the US, and the inability of the UK to provide an effective counter to this threat. Reluctantly, Canada withdraws from Empire collective defence, and publicly declares that she will remain strictly neutral should war break out between the UK and the US.

The US economically flush with the war debts owed to her by her erstwhile allies, and keen to establish for herself a role in world affairs befitting her industrial and economic might, is determined to achieve a Navy second to none. Congressional opposition to defence spending dissipates after the failure of the Washington Conference to contain Japanese expansion, and it is believed that Naval Superiority could be achieved by completing the 1916 programme, in tandem with a modernisation programme for existing battleships to extend the range of their main armament, and convert them to oil fuel. The battleships and battlecruisers of the 1916 programme were followed in the shipyards by a building programme of cruisers to address this key deficiency in the US fleet, and a modernisation programme for a number of existing battleships completed between 1916 and 1923. This plan is trumped, however, by the construction in both Japan and England of battleships with 18 inch guns which clearly outclass the biggest US ships. There is also a growing realisation that six of the latest ships - the large and heavily armed battlecruisers of the Lexington class - are so seriously under-armoured that they are of questionable value to the battle fleet, and the last two ships in this class are converted to aircraft carriers whilst under construction. Finally the continuation of the Anglo-Japanese alliance forces the US to face the prospect of having to fight a two-ocean war. She does not have the strength to achieve simultaneous superiority in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Being unable to risk the critical East Coast cities to raids or bombardment from the guns of the Royal Navy, and lacking the ability to project a powerful enough fleet into the Eastern Atlantic to force a defeat on the Royal Navy (due to a lack of proximate bases or a suitable fleet train), the US would be forced in any war against both powers to maintain a powerful fleet on the defensive in the Western Atlantic. In spite of the completion of the 1916 programme, this leaves the US with insufficient strength in the Pacific to force a showdown with the Japanese fleet. Determined not to see their quest for naval supremacy thwarted, The US Congress passes the Two Ocean Navy Act in 1927 which provides for the construction of enough ships to ensure the US can simultaneously maintain fleets second to none in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The first priority in this building programme was allocated to the production of effective battlecruisers to counter those operated by Britain and Japan.

Japan continues with her determined attempt to establish local superiority in East Asian waters. The Anglo-Japanese alliance is continued. Although there is increasing scepticism that England would actually go to war with the United States on behalf of Japan, the alliance does allow Japan to focus on the US threat. Financial weakness as a consequence of the Tokyo earthquake prevents any increase in the building rate specified in the 8-8 plan, however the Japanese make significant sacrifices elsewhere in the economy in order to continue laying down two capital ships per year throughout the 1920’s. There are some delays in the programme, with some ships being completed up to a year late, however all ships are completed by 1929.

The United States of America

The USA will dispose of all pre-Dreadnoughts by the end of 1922. The vessels retained will be:

Colorado and West Virginia will complete in 1923. South Carolina and Michigan will be placed in reserve

Washington will complete in 1924. South Carolina and Michigan will be disposed of.

Constellation, Saratoga, South Dakota, Indiana, North Carolina and Iowa will complete in 1925. Delaware, North Dakota, Florida, Utah, Wyoming and Arkansas will be paid off into reserve.

Constitution, United States, Montana and Massachusetts will complete in 1926. New York and Texas will be paid off into reserve.

The battlecruisers Lexington and Ranger will be completed as aircraft carriers.

The British Empire

The British Empire shall dispose of all twelve-inch gunned ships (except for Australia) by the end of 1922. The vessels retained are:

In 1924, Lion will transfer to the Royal Australian Navy, where she will be refitted[1] to replace Australia, which will be disposed of. The conversion of Courageous and Glorious to aircraft carriers will commence.

In 1925 two G3 class battlecruisers will be completed, Repulse, Centurion and Ajax will be placed in reserve.

In 1926 two G3 class battlecruisers and two N3 class battleships will be completed. Renown, Benbow, Emperor of India, Marlborough and Iron Duke will be placed in reserve.

In 1927 the remaining two N3 class battleships will be completed. Revenge and Royal Sovereign will be placed into reserve.

Japan

Japan will retain the following ships at the end of 1922. Ships marked with an asterisk will be in reserve:

Kashima*, Katori*, Ikoma, Ibuki, Kurama, Satsuma, Aki, Settsu, Kongo, Kirishima, Hiei, Haruna, Fuso, Yamashiro, Hyuga, Ise, Nagato and Mutsu.

In 1923, Kaga and Tosa will be completed. Satsuma and Aki will be placed into reserve.

In 1924, Amagi and Akagi will be completed. Kurama and Ibuki will be placed into reserve.

In 1925 Atago and Takao will be completed. Ikoma and Settsu will be placed into reserve.

In 1926 Kii and Owari will be completed. Kongo and Hiei will be placed into reserve.

In 1927 No 11 and No 12 will be competed. Kirishima and Haruna will be placed into reserve.

In 1928 No 13 and No 14 will be completed. Fuso and Yamashiro will be placed into reserve.

In 1929 No 15 and No 16 will be completed. Ise and Hyuga will be placed into reserve.

[1] This would not be an extensive refit. Apart from general repairs and maintenance, the principle alterations and additions would be the provision of arrangements to carry two catapult-launched reconnaissance seaplanes, and the replacement of two of the four-inch low-angle secondary guns with four-inch anti-aircraft guns (bringing the total number of four-inch AA guns carried to four).