Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

The Spanish Civil War is regarded by many as a turning point in European and world history. It was in Spain that the League of Nations first began to unravel. Nazi Germany and fascist Italy gained combat and political experience that both countries would find valuable during World War II. Stalin’s alienation from the West began in earnest as Britain and France did little or nothing to keep the Loyalist government from being destroyed by Francisco Franco’s uprising. Even the United States—ever attempting to remain isolationist even in the midst of Europe’s descent into fascism—found itself entangled in events.

Franco’s ultimate victory in 1939 would isolate Spain from Europe for decades. If Hitler had been counting on a loyal ally on the Iberian Peninsula, he was sadly mistaken: Franco kept Spain out of WWII. However, he was no less a fascist. Spain under Franco was the longest-lived of the fascist regimes that arose during the 1920’s and 1930’s. Under el Caudillo Spain experienced years of political and social repression and economic stagnation. Only after Franco’s death in 1975 and the restoration of the monarchy in the person of King Juan Carlos V did Spain finally begin to recover and take its place once again in the larger European community.

However, the fascist victory in Spain was not as clear-cut as one might think. Despite having only intermittent help from Stalin and the USSR (and despite its own very deep internal divisions) the Loyalist government managed to hold out for four years against a concerted effort by both Hitler and Mussolini to unseat them. The Loyalists controlled the bulk of Spain’s manufacturing capacity and most of its naval forces (Franco’s Spanish Foreign Legion had to depend upon Junkers-52’s on loan from Germany to overcome a Loyalist naval blockade and deploy in Spain). Against less determined opponents, the Loyalists may have held out longer or perhaps even prevailed.

Suppose the Falangist movement in Spain did not have a strong rallying point. Jose Antonio Primo de Rivera, the leader of the Falange Espanol, was in Loyalist custody from the beginning of the war. The main leadership of the Nationalists (as the Spanish fascists termed themselves) consisted of Franco, Gen. Mola, and Gen. Jose Sanjurjo. Sanjurjo would die in a plane crash on July 20, 1936, just before the outbreak of hostilities. Suppose, given the cash-strapped nature of the Spanish government at the time, another plane lacked adequate maintenance: namely, the plane carrying General Franco from the Canary Islands to the Spanish garrison in Morocco. On July 19, 1936 (one day before the date in OTL that Franco formally made contact with Hitler and Mussolini for help) Franco was to make that flight and take command of the Moorish troops of the Spanish Foreign Legion. Instead, his plane crashes. Franco and his companions are lost at sea.

With the loss of General Sanjurjo the following day (also in a plane crash in OTL) General Mola is left as the most powerful Falange leader capable of actually taking action. However, Mola is not in a position to contact Germany or Italy directly. The coup proceeds as planned, but without the addition of Franco’s Army of Africa. With no air transport to bring them across the Strait of Girbraltar, the garrison in Morocco is physically cut off from Spain. The Falange must rely upon the forces currently available in Spain.

Eventually Mola will find a way to make contact with Hitler and/or Mussolini. However, Spain is a secondary front. Hitler is obsessed with Russia and France; Mussolini wants to build his African empire. The Loyalists (with assistance from the USSR) are able to put up a more determined fight against a weaker general in this time line; propping up Mola isn’t nearly as appealing an option as propping up Franco would have been. Recognition of the Falangists won’t happen until 1937 at the earliest (if at all).

Everything else proceeds as in OTL through 1937: Rivera is executed by the Loyalists in November 1936; the Loyalist government (probably at Stalin’s request) begins to purge the Anarchists and POUM from its ranks. The Loyalists find themselves fighting the Nationalists and within their own ranks, but with Stalin’s assistance slowly gain ground. The siege on Madrid in November still takes place, but is broken by the Loyalists faster. There is no pressing need for the Loyalist government to abandon Madrid for Valencia.

In June 1937, Mola dies in a plane crash (as in OTL), leaving no clear leader of the Nationalist ranks (who are at least as diverse as their Loyalist counterparts). The Loyalists take the opportunity to press their luck during the power vacuum but are hindered by their own infighting as the Communists, abandoning any pretense at a popular front, begin to purge the Loyalist ranks more vigorously.

Now would be a perfect opportunity for either Hitler or Mussolini to invade outright, were either dictator prepared for the move. The Condor Legion and Mussolini’s ‘volunteers’ show up on schedule, and are able to expand from the Nationalist stronghold at Seville more forcefully throughout Spain. In the absence of a popular front, left-wing organizations outside Spain are more reluctant to send their own volunteers to fight the fascists. There is no Abraham Lincoln Battalion in this timeline, although plenty of veterans of World War One arrive in Spain offering their services as mercenaries to either side. With the Depression still at full strength, the money looks good, and there were a number of mercenaries serving both the Loyalists and Nationalists in OTL.

Stalin, not missing his opportunity, sends his own group of ‘International Volunteers’ to Spain, establishing a rump ‘Basque Soviet Socialist Republic’ in the Basque country, with its capitol at Bilbao. Juan Negrin, the Loyalist Prime Minister, is assassinated and replaced by Andres Marty, leader of the Spanish Communist Party. The Nationalist offensive on Madrid that took place in July 1937 in OTL instead becomes a German/Italian offensive that succeeds in January 1938 amid bitterly cold weather. Picasso’s painting of the siege of Madrid becomes a symbol of the horror of war for the remainder of the 20^th century.

The Spanish political parties have been pushed off the stage by this point, with open but undeclared warfare between the Germans and Italians on one side and the USSR on the other. The Popular Front government in France, concerned about a major security situation on its border, dispatches troops. World War Two begins in 1938 as the Nationalist spring offensive along the Ebro that separated Madrid from Barcelona in OTL captures Barcelona. Andres Marty is executed and the Loyalist government collapses completely.

The fighting does not stop, however, as each side carves out its own enclave in Spain. The USSR claims the Basque country and Galicia with the remainder of the country (very loosely) controlled by Germany and Italy. France’s troops remained massed along the Pyrennes. The League of Nations attempts a settlement wherein Spain is formally divided amongst the combatant parties, with the USSR controlling the Basque country and Galicia, the Italians controlling Catalonia and the Germans everything else. An agreement is signed but means very little as the mutual hate affair between Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini takes over (and the people of Spain have their own notions as to how things shape up).

With so many troops tied down in Spain, however, Hitler is forced to assimilate Austria and the Sudetenland sooner in this timeline. He does not, however, have enough troops or equipment free to take on Czechoslovakia without a serious fight, much less France. Being Hitler, he does so nonetheless. Germany eventually wins (the Czechs posed a major fight, especially when Poland decides to join in) mainly because the French find themselves already occupied on their southern border and not able to do much. Still, it takes Hitler more than a year to take territory he would have taken in a few weeks in OTL.

With hostilities already open between Hitler and Stalin’s respective Spanish enclaves, there is no non-aggression pact in this timeline. Because of the obligations in Spain, however, Barbarossa takes place as in OTL, but with fewer German troops involved. The Africa campaigns may or may not take place depending upon how smart Mussolini plays his hand. I don’t think it likely that Mussolini could hold down Catalonia and pacify Libya, Ethiopia, and Somaliland at the same time (since he barely managed what he did have in OTL—let’s be generous and assume Graziani is killed in action in Spain and someone more capable takes over). If he does try for Africa, however, Greece will be out of the question (even Mussolini’s staff wouldn’t be that stupid).

Eventually, but not for many years, the situation in Spain will stabilize and allow all three nations to shift resources elsewhere. World War Two still takes place as in OTL, but much more slowly (at least in Europe; the Pacific theatre won’t be affected all that greatly by these events unless the United States chooses to stay out of Europe entirely). The war may end as late as 1949 or 1950, leaving Europe completely exhausted and Spain looking much like Afghanistan does today in OTL. The League of Nations will find itself thoroughly discredited after the Spanish Partition and the appetite of world leaders for yet another unified body may not be as great: no United Nations in this timeline, although the League may limp along until 1950 or so.

As for Spain itself, the country has never been solidly unified. A restored Spanish Republic (perhaps even a restoration of the monarchy) may take place after World War Two, but the picture may look more like the former Yugoslavia than the Spain we know in OTL. Grievances between the various Spanish provinces dating to the war and even earlier may be nursed along for generations, until yet another Spanish Civil War breaks out.

Spain Without Franco