Spanish Civil War: Some POD's with Possible Outcomes

Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

Spanish Civil War: Some POD's with Possible Outcomes

1) No volunteer brigades for the Republicans: as the Republican regime relied upon the volunteers to buy time for them while the regular Spanish Republican army was professionalized, this could be disastrous. The volunteer brigades essentially served as cannon fodder while the professional army organized and trained, and occasionally won some important victories. Their ranks included many WWI veterans and in practice were hindered primarily by a thread-thin logistics train. Possible outcome: Nationalist victory, possibly as early as 1937.

2) Madrid falls after the first siege (November 1936): easy one. Nationalists win, hands down, but they have a major problem holding on to what they’ve gained (particularly if communist cells are able to get any kind of backing from the USSR, although that seems unlikely as Stalin was as much inclined to bet on winners as anyone else).

3) Franco unable to make contact with Germany: Ju-52's used to airlift Army of Africa would not be available. Army of Africa remains pinned down in Morocco unless/until other air or naval support becomes available. Republican elements in Spain proper are able to hold down the rebellion, but with the presence of Franco/Mola/Sanjurjo the fascist movement remains alive and well, possibly awaiting the outbreak of WWII...which leads us to

4) Civil War breaks out in 1940: the USSR, busy facing down Germany and tied down with the Finnish campaign, is unable to support Republicans to as great an extent as in OTL. This could result in a Nationalist victory unless Republicans have been able to raise a well-equipped, professional army in the meantime, which seems unlikely given the deep divisions in the regime.

5) Mussolini stays out of Spain: Mussolini is able to retain the troops, equipment, and money Italy spent supporting the Nationalists, with the result that Italy is possibly stronger in Africa. This really has no large effect on either Spain (Nationalists still win with German help) or WWII (Italy has more to throw into Ethiopia but cannot hope to face Britain/US in North Africa).

6) USSR has more active involvement in Spain: Red Army assistance to Republicans would speed up development of the Republican army; however, the presence of the NKVD may inspire more aggressive posturing by Spanish Communist Party, leading to even further divisions in the popular front. Republicans win, but casualties much higher than in OTL and a Stalin puppet in charge of Spain (the Republicans not having either the resources or a strong personality like China’s Mao Zedong to stand up to their patrons). If there’s no Hitler-Stalin non-aggression pact, this could lead to an early start of WWII.

7) Nationalists gain control of the Spanish navy: the main thing that kept the Republicans alive despite the blockade was the fact that they retained almost all of the Spanish navy, including all of the submarines. With control of the navy, the Nationalists would not have been as dependent upon the Germans for airlift of the Army of Africa and the paper-thin League of Nations blockade would have been rendered utterly worthless. Without Republican naval units to harass arms shipments, the Nationalists could score a victory by 1937.

8) More effective League of Nations blockade: the arms embargo imposed by the League of Nations on all combatants was more rigorously enforced vis a vis the Republicans by Britain and France, who feared the spread of communist influence more than the spread of fascism (and the creation of a Hitler satellite) in the 1930's. If the blockade had been strictly enforced, the Republicans may still lose but could possibly push the war longer since the Nationalists would lack the overt German/Italian support they enjoyed in OTL. Certainly the inability to move forces from Morocco would keep the Nationalists from breaking out of their stronghold in Seville until much later. The League of Nations would retain much of the credibility it lost prior to WWII and could possibly mediate a settlement of the war. OTOH, encounters between the blockade vessels and German/Italian/Soviet vessels could heighten tensions still further leading into WWII.

9) Popular front remains cohesive after first Madrid siege: probably the single most important thing the Republicans could have done was focus more on fighting Franco's forces than each other. The pro-Soviet Union communists spent a lot of effort rooting out other communist factions and anarchists, and ensuring the political reliability of the international brigades that could have been better spent on fighting the Nationalists. Stronger leadership would have allowed the Republican army to develop much faster and possibly win more important victories, thus making Germany or Italy more reluctant to support a losing Nationalist cause

10) France gets involved in 1936: the Popular Front government in France in 1936-38 was sympathetic to the Republicans. France also had the wherewithal to support the Spanish Republican government. Contributions of money, arms, or actual troops to the fight could end the civil war quickly and provide the French with the same advantages (testing of equipment and doctrine, and greater experience for its officer corps) that Germany enjoyed by supporting the Nationalists. If the French get involved before the Germans can get in, they'll be a much more formidable opponent for the Germans in WWII (that is, if the complacency of the 1930's French military establishment doesn't get in the way). Of course, this pretty much signs the death warrant for the League of Nations, as one of the nations with the greatest ability to make the League actually work breaks ranks.

11) Republicans purge the military pre-1936: probably not very likely, given that the Republican government was seldom able to initiate the coordinated action something like this would require. Consigning Franco, et.al., to unmarked graves somewhere in the countryside would buy the Republican regime time, but that's about all. Without an experienced officer corps, the Republicans would find themselves looking down Hitler's gun barrel later on. An invasion of Spain would be hideously stupid on the part of Nazi Germany (unless Hitler convinces the Vichy French to do it for him) but the Republicans could end up making a lot of very uncomfortable concessions (or climbing even further into bed with Stalin) just to stay in power.

12) No blockade/arms embargo: while the Nationalists were more professional and (for the most part) more cohesive, the Republicans did enjoy greater popular support. Had the Republicans been able to bring in modern weapons on credit from sympathetic governments (USSR, France pre-1939, Mexico, possibly US) they could have held stronger against the Nationalists, perhaps long enough to win the war (especially if more volunteer brigades enter the fight).

13) Harder winter in 1937-38: the Republicans were beginning to fall apart toward the end of 1937, and the winter in 1937-38 took a large toll on both sides. A winter even colder than in OTL (which was pretty bad) could wipe out more Spanish units. The war will be over as soon as the Nationalists cross the Ebro in March 1938.

14) Balkanization: Spain’s breakaway regions (Catalan, Basque Country, Galicia) could use the civil war as a way to force the issue of their own independence. Indeed, the Republicans promised greater local autonomy as a carrot to these regions (particularly the Basque Country) in exchange for support of the regime. Had the Nationalists tried the same strategy, they could have ended up victorious, but over something more akin to the former Yugoslavia than the Spain we know today. Certainly these autonomous regions may look to outside powers (e.g., Hitler or Stalin) to ensure their independence in the face of the Nationalist regime should the Nationalists try to go back on their promises.

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