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Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM |
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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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Sunset: What if the British Empire collapsed in the 1930’s?This was loosely inspired by a play-by-web game I started
playing while I was still at school, called Space Empires, and since re-named to
Galactic Emperor: Hegemony.
One of the main difficulties of Space Empires is that an emperor, playing
against eleven other players, can become over-extended and be defeated by
smaller players, who, one on one, would not have been able to win. Background: The Old Man of Asia
The British Empire, in the inter-war period, was the
largest empire the world had ever seen. It
was greater than Alexander’s or Caesar’s and ruled over no less then a
quarter of the Earth’s surface. If
one counts the waves as well, as one boastful British repersentive in Asia did,
Britain ruled most of them as well. However, there was friction, and parts of the British
Empire were almost ungoverned or under-controlled.
Small rebellions, demands for either a greater say in the empire or full
independence, and outside pressure caused the imperial edifice to creak and
groan. The Americans, in one of the
most short-sighted decisions made by British politions, forced the British to
withdraw from the Anglo-Japanese alliance, replacing it with no equivalent
guarantee for the safety of the British Empire in the east. The Japanese could not have helped, but to feel a little
slighted, and some British officers recognised this. “For God’s sake, be nice to the Japs”, implored
the former commander of the Far eastern station to his replacement.
The awareness that the most important part of the Empire – aside from
Britain itself – including the ‘jewel in the crown’ was wearing only a
bikini, if not almost completely naked (a throng perhaps, LOL). Constant agitations in Erupt, India (including one incident when a British patrol opened fire on a demonstration, Iran, Palestine (Jew-Arab confrontations), Ireland and even some nasty incidents in Britain itself drained British manpower and diverted scant resources from more worthy pursuits. It is somewhat of a miracle that the British Empire achutcly survived as long as it did, for such a rickety structure, the chances of collapse grew, not lessened. A good full world map of that time can be found here, although it appears to combine eras and is very confusing, although it gives a good general picture. A possible Collapse?
Given the rickety structure, how could the British Empire
have collapsed? Possible causes:
Or some combination of most of them, which is the most likely, as the 1930’s empire could have probably dealt with most of them on their own. Foreign interference is largely unlikely, aside from Japan in the pacific and – perhaps – America in the case of Canada. What I envisage is an incident in India, perhaps one of Gandhi’s protests, that turns violent and Gandhi himself is killed. This leads to riots in India and British forces are rushed in from the Middle East to help put down the riots. The Middle East, newly under British control after the demise of the Ottoman Empire, takes the opportunity to revolt, and hatred between Jews and Arabs erupts as the two start fighting it out.
The Story
“To be a great power – or world power – requires
certain assets: size, population. Food and raw materials, administrative and
military skills, industrial production.” -Karl Von Shrakenberg “And also a lack of outside rivals, or the force
required to prevent them from overrunning you.
However, this is counterproductive. Constant spending on an unproductive,
in time of peace, military results in less wealth being used for growth.
In the long term, the amount of available wealth will decline sharply.” -My addition to the above In 1922, a Japanese uttered the line ‘you no longer trust us’, after the
British started work on their navel base at Singapore.
This base, intended as a base for a fleet, which could be deployed from
Britain, in the event of a war with Japan.
To the Japanese, however, the base was seen as a sign that their former
allies were worried about them, being quick to smell weakness, they figured that
perhaps some parts of the British Empire, the oil rich islands, for example,
could be grabbed. To some parts of the British Empire, this base was seen as a
commitment to their defence, but the more perceptive members realised that the
base was all to likely to be extremely vulnerable, and therefore a white
elephant. The Japanese began a
quite campaign of infiltration into the islands and India, making contact with
the more extreme opponents of British rule, although Gandhi himself refused to
have anything to do with them. The worldwide
depression of 1929 intensified the crisis.
Counties that were rich were now poorer and many fell to dictatorial
rule. In Japan, During the
1930s, the military in Japan established almost complete control over the
government. Many political enemies were assassinated, and communists persecuted.
Indoctrination and censorship in education and media were further intensified.
Navy and army officers soon occupied most of the important offices, including
the one of the prime minister. Already earlier, Japan followed the
example of Western nations and forced China into unequal economical and
political treaties. Furthermore, Japan's influence over Manchuria had been
steadily growing since the end of the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05. When the
Chinese Nationalists began to seriously challenge Japan's position in Manchuria
in 1931, the Kwantung Army (Japanese armed forces in Manchuria) occupied
Manchuria. In the following year, "Manchukuo" was declared an
independent state, controlled by the Kwantung Army through a puppet government.
In the same year, the Japanese air force bombarded Shanghai in order to protect
Japanese residents from anti Japanese movements.
Some arms for the Chinese went from British territory, the Burma Road,
and the Japanese were furious at this betrayal.
Other counties that cast an eye on the discontent in the
Empire included Turkey, which had claims to parts of Iraq and Iran (both
simmering with revolts), Italy, which wanted Egypt, America, which was
interested in the Empire’s Caribbean processions and Canada (and had even
prepared plans to fight a war against Britain, called WAR PLAN RED) and Russia,
now styling itself the USSR, which wanted Iran and perhaps India itself.
While the Empire appeared strong, however, the individual opponents could
do nothing. Eventually, however, the storm broke.
In India, the noted leader Gandhi was killed during one of his famous
protest marches. His supporters,
and others started a mass riot which the British troops had to respond to with
deadly force. There is a series of
uprising in India. British
reinforcements are rushed in. The Indian political scene is very confused.
With the death of Gandhi, there is no one with the moral authority to
lead a mass Hindu/Muslim movement. Nehru
and Jinnah split up for good and start separate forces designed to kick out the
British. Sometimes, their forces fight each other instead.
The princely states stand on the sidelines for the moment, but the
Japanese are supplying their forces with modern weapons and they’re waiting to
see who comes out on top. At the end of that year, as India simmers, there is a large
revolt, Japanese instigated, in Burma. The
British forces there are overstretched, but they are holding on for the moment. Hostile forces, mainly the USSR and the Japanese, start to
take notice of Britain predicament, and start streaming the pot.
The USSR sends arms and money to communist groups in India and the Middle
East and urges them to rise up. The
Japanese keep supplying the anti-British forces and prepare to attack when
Britain is at its weakest point. As the New Year, 1934, begins, the British have a serious
shortage of troops. They attempt to
cover this by conscription, hiring menisaries, and recruiting troops from the
dominions. These soon prove to be
unpopular and there are riots in Britain itself. In Palestine, the draw down of British forces leads to
savage Arab/Jewish riots. British
forces had to be sent from Egypt to help put the riots down.
While they were gone, the Egyptian army rebelled, and blocked the Suez
Canal. This further stretched
British navel resources. Italy
started to throw fuel on the fire by holding military maneuvers on the border
between Egypt and Libya. They
also clasendinly supply the rebels, but the British are unaware of this.
The British assemble a naval task force and order it to force the Suez
Canal. However, rebel artillery
makes this impossible and the British are forced to bombard Alexandria in
response. This aroused widespread
condemnation around the world. In Burma, the nationalists begin an uprising.
British forces are needed, but the blocked canal makes sending them a
long trip. The Indian army is sent
in, but it’s a demoralized and very susceptible to Japanese propaganda.
There are mutinies in the ranks. The Japanese send a strongly worded diplomatic note
demanding that the British stop supplying the Chinese with weapons.
The British government, especially Churchill, would like to fight, but
the more realistic members realise that even if Britain wins the war, the
victory will be a pyicc one. The
British government backs down. The
Chinese are angry, which has two consequences, one, they become more
inclined to hit British interests (and there are riots in Hong Kong) and two,
they become more dependant on the USSR for support and supplies.
Stalin rubs his hands with glee and the Chinese communists become
slightly more powerful than in OTL. The
Americans and the French loudly condemn the British actions; after all, it’s
not their empires on the firing line. As 1935 begins, the British launch an invasion of Egypt,
determined to re-establish control. The
invasion goes badly and soon becomes bogged down. The British are forced to request help from the dominions,
Canada refuses to send much help (although some private individuals fight on the
British side), while Australia and New Zealand are willing, but worried about
the threat from Japan. The only
completely willing assistant is South Africa, which is beginning to have dreams
of complete African domination, but their assistance comes at a price of no
British interference in their treatment of the black population.
The British Government grits its teeth and agrees.
This decision brings more condemnation from the USA, but France, Italy
and Germany, now ruled by Hitler, are silent.
Hitler offers assistance to the British Empire, but is refused.
Hitler, however, is delighted; he can now concentrate on building up his
forces with no interference. France
is more worried by Hitler, but cannot find the energy to do much as yet. The Japanese carefully prepare and provoke an uprising in
India, Ceylon and Burma. Not
carefully enough, as this time the British discover their intentions and send a
sharp diplomatic note to Japan. Relations
take a sharp turn for the worse. Australia
and New Zealand demand that a fleet be sent to the uncompleted Singapore naval
base to protect them. The British
government valicates, but finally decides to send submarines and an aircraft
carrier as reinforcements to Singapore and send a small task force of
battleships, led by the Hood and the Rodney, to Australia itself.
These take about 90 days to reach the Far East, because the Suez Canal is
still uncompleted. Meanwhile, there are ominous rumblings in America.
The Panama Canal is destroyed (for that, read the locks were damaged
and put out of action) by a mysterious explosion.
The culprits remain unknown. MI5
suspects it was the Japanese, but the British Government does not want to make
any hasty accusations. The
Americans are unhappy, but don’t know whom to blame.
Meanwhile, the Canadian government is in desperate financial straights,
and is forced to borrow money off America. The Japanese Government, having made the cold-blooded decision to go to war with their former ally, have to consider the following points: Ø Currently weak British position Ø Confused situation in British India (“It would be easier to fight a united Empire, than the situation today, where who knows who is in charge” lamented a Japanese official) Ø Steadily growing British power, although it can’t compete with Japan yet Ø Danger of American and/or USSR intervention Ø
Danger of repeating the British mistake and becoming
overstretched. They can choose from a number of courses
They decide, because time is pressing, to embark on a
mixture of numbers 3 and 5. They
make careful enquiries in Italy, Germany and Turkey, asking the parties
concerned if they would be interested in a division of British territory.
Hitler refuses to get involved, but Mussolini and the Turkish government
express interest. Stalin notes the
Turkish actions with concern. The
Japanese government sends a final list of demands to the British government,
and, while the British are considering the matter, launches a pre-emptive
attack. On march 23rd, 1936, Japanese forces started the
war by landing in Thailand, and advancing downwards though Malaya and besieging
Singapore. After a desperate defense,
the island base falls to the Japanese. The
British submarines take a bite out of the Japanese ships, making them more
cautious in battle. The British
ships present are either sunk or retreat to Australia.
Small Japanese forces mop up isolated British forces across China and
Indonesia, although they are reluctant to press too far down towards Australia
in fear of American intervention. They
land forces to invade Port Moresby, but Australia forces hold them off.
In return, Japanese carrier planes bomb Darwin and Sidney.
The RAF and RAAF planes fight well, but are outnumbered. India and Burma explode with riots.
The British forces fight well, but are forced to retreat back to the
coastal towns and a few isolated holdouts.
The emir of Afghanistan launches an invasion of northern India, forcing
Hindus and Muslims to work together in resisting the attack.
Stalin supplies the Indian communist party with weapons in return for
influence in India after the war. As
British forces are pulled out of Iran and Iraq, Turkey invades then, as well as
Palestine. Stalin panics and orders USSR forces into eastern Turkey,
Iran and Iraq. The war between the
two sides swiftly bogs down in Turkey, but they are slowly loosing.
Stalin makes threatening noises towards French Syria, the French send
extra forces to the region, but they are still very weak there.
The Iranians soon discover that the British were better than the
Russians, as Stalin orders the complete destruction of any town suspected of
hiding resistance fighters. The
world is appalled, but can do little. The cost of the war to the British is increasing.
The fleet is still on its way to the Far East, pausing at South Africa
for supplies before traveling to Ceylon. However,
the South Africans exact a price, they want the British Empire’s African
processions. Reluctantly, Parliament grants than the mandate for all the
African territories, aside from Egypt, and cedes them control.
The South Africans start making themselves even more unpopular there. Hitler observes the Soviet Unions moves in the Middle East
with concern. He plans to destroy
the USSR, to whom he is pretending to be friendly towards, but he realizes that
if the beast grows too big, it will become impossible to destroy. Reluctantly,
observing the French predicament in Syria, he makes approaches to the French for
a possible alliance. The French are
tempted, and send a delegation, led by Petain, to Berlin for talks.
The talks proceed well and some joint plans are drawn up for action.
However, the French insist that the USSR makes the first move. Fine, says Hitler, and starts planning to provoke a soviet
attack on Poland. He makes
approaches to Britain, but Britain is not interested at the moment. They have good reason not to be. India is exploding in four-way war, as British fight
communists who fight the ‘independent’, Japanese backed princes, and the
Afghan invasion is being fought by all sides, but for different reasons.
The naval war against Japan is being lost, with the fall of Singapore and
the East Indies. The British fleet arrives at Ceylon and the Japanese battle
fleet advances to meet it. The
battle, between battleships, is a close-run thing, and the British win.
However, the Japanese have managed to capture Ceylon and with it the
fleet base there. The battered fleet has to head to Australia and is ambushed
by Japanese submarines. Result:
the near complete destruction of the British and Japanese fleets.
However, the balance in power is now firmly on Japan’s side. The British Government falls and a new government comes into
power. Meanwhile, the Spanish civil war has been fought and
concluded. Franco has won a little
quicker than in OTL as the fascists have been sending uninterrupted supplies as
the British have other things to worry about. Overconfident now, he demands the return of Gibraltar to
Spain. The Italians demand Malta
and the Greeks demand Cyprus. They
have a fair chance of getting it as Turkey is locked in mortal combat with the
USSR. The British Empire is now
becoming a military vacuum and the new government realises it.
They give orders for India, Egypt and Iran to be evacuated completely.
Some units of the Indian army choose to go with the British, but most
disband or are absorbed into the princely forces.
India dissolves into civil war.
Iran is almost completely overrun by the soviets.
The Italians attempt to invade Egypt, but the resistance forces manage to
push them back out. They do manage to take Malta, but as terrific cost of their
navy to British submarines. Hitler
practically orders Mussolini not to try anything else with British territory.
The Duce wants to refuse, but he’s too terrified of the combined
French/German forces to refuse. Gibraltar
falls to Spain and Franco shouts his triumph to the skies.
Even the loss of most of his pitiful fleet and the Canary Islands to
Britain does not deter him. As events progress, the British Empire is effectively
destroyed. The state of the empire
is as follows: Canada: Nominally
independent, but in economic hock to the USA, some of the more perceptive
Canadian politicians are openly advocating union with America. Australia: Independent
and still loyal to the King, but very dubious about Britain’s ability to
support her in war. She now has her
own war production industry and very close ties with America.
Constant Japanese pressure may lead to her becoming a Japanese possession
in all, but name. New Zealand: Under
pressure from Japan to grant her preference in all things and native
Japanese full voting rights. Attempts
to interest America or Australia in a defensive alliance have failed. India: Anarchy.
The county is torn apart in wars between the princes, Hindus and Muslims
over who should rule a united India.
There is no leader of significance now.
Attempts by Japan to interfere have largely failed. Ceylon: In Japanese hands Burma: Independent,
but closely allied to Japan, who treat it like it was part of their empire. Gibraltar: In
Spanish hands Malta: In
Italian hands Egypt, Iran and Iraq: In Anarchy. Singapore and Hong Kong: In Japanese hands Other African possessions: In the hands of South Africa in
exchange for support in the Empire War. Slowly
turning into a Nazi-type environment. Ireland: Completely
independent now. Falklands: In
Argentine hands Jamaica and other Caribbean islands: Sold to America Short Term Consequences: There are the beginnings of a European Alliance as Hitler
seduces France and Spain into joining a war against the USSR.
This will be on a much bigger scale, but I don’t think I want to live
in that world. I’d bet on Hitler
to win, and, in the TL, he has a good chance of being remembered kindly.
What do you think would happen? On Japan’s side, they will be grossly overstretched,
worse than in our timeline. There
may not be a Normohan border conflict between Japan and the USSR. What about the effects on Britain herself? Would you like to write it up? It would be interesting to see if someone else agrees with my
vision References:
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