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What
if the Spanish Civil War Lasted Longer?
Inspired by the Alternate History in the last issue,
Spain Without Franco, I wondered what it might take to keep the war going
a few months longer, so that it would still be going on when WW2 broke out
in Sept. 1939.
Let’s allow events to continue as OTL until the
battle of Madrid. This was
the first real chance for a Nationalist (i.e. Franco) victory.
Madrid housed most of the government, the republican power base and
many factories. A Franco
victory there would probably have led to the end of the war in short
order. During a bloody
battle, the USSR sent modern supplies, tanks and aircraft, which allowed
the republicans to beat back the nationalists.
The war therefore lasted two more years and ended shortly before
WW2 with the defeat of the Republicans.
Let’s consider the possibility of outside, allied,
meddling. The western allies,
France and Britain, have an interest in the conflict not ever being
resolved. A republican
victory might, as John figures, result in the Soviet Union developing a
power base in the western Mediterranean.
A Nationalist victory would give the fascist powers an extra ally
who was in a position to threaten the British base at Gibraltar.
In OTL, they decided that the fascists were the lesser of two
evils, a gamble that paid off, partly, when Franco stayed neutral in the
conflict.
However, it is indeed a pity that both sides can’t
lose, from the western point of view.
Therefore, lets have the British and French decide on imposing an
effective blockade on Spain after the Battle of Madrid.
There is no doubt that the British navy could crush the Spanish
navies and sink supply ships, while the French could seal the borders
between Italy and Germany. Submarines
can bring in a trickle of supplies, but, for most purposes, the two sides
are on their own.
This would probably force a reduction in military
activity in Spain. Franco was
very cautious as a general – note his reluctance to get involved in WW2
without supplies from Germany – and would attempt to avoid wasting his
supplies and weapons. The
republicans have problems integrating the international brigades into
their forces, as well as a growing communist attempt to take control of
the war effort, and would probably welcome an unofficial truce.
They hold most of the factories so a long delay, all other things
being equal, works in their favour.
The next two years see sporadic fighting along the
front and considerable development work being done on each sides
territory. The republicans
work to complete the social revolution, while the nationalists work to
suppress the peasants and tighten Franco’s control.
Franco may be challenged for control of the war by one of the other
generals, but I suspect that he would be able to overcome them.
However, outside events can have a serious influence.
In 1939, Hitler finally moves against Poland and plunges the world
into war – again. However,
there are some subtle differences; the German army is a little more
powerful as they have not sent so much to Spain and the air force is a
little less capable that OTL. However,
unless the Poles get a boost of their own, they will still lose.
Therefore, the allies still sit on their collective
butts until May 1940, when Hitler kicked down the door and invades France.
Swiftly, the allies are defeated and Hitler crushes the French,
forcing a peace treaty on them, as in OTL.
However, in this timeline, Hitler has unfinished
business with the Spanish. Instead
of the Germany Army being allowed to rest and fix its problems, Hitler
sends a large force into Spain to aid Franco.
The republicans are tougher than the French and more motivated: the
war lasts several months and ends with a nationalist victory in December,
with Hitler’s forces having attacked and taken Gibraltar.
However, the British have taken the Balearics and the Canaries, so
Franco has some reason to regret his involvement with Hitler.
What this means is that Hitler cannot launch
Barbarossa in 1941, not can he send a force to Africa in time to save
Libya. He is in fact
reluctant to engage in any fighting, although he presses the Vichy French
to help the Italians out as much as possible.
The republican leaders have fled to the Balearics and form a
government-in-exile, while some republican forces fight with the British
in North Africa.
The war, however, stalemates in 1941.
With the British slowly getting stronger, while having defeated the
Italians, Hitler is reluctant to turn his back on them while hitting
Stalin. Further, the German
army is in no shape for a further campaign, while British-supported
resistance movements have began to spring up in the occupied territories
and much of Franco’s forces are tied up fighting gruellas in Spain.
Aid from the US allows the British to finish the job of clearing up
Italy’s empire, while moving forces to the Far East and Iran.
With the increased British power in the Far East, Japan attempts to
negotiate a solution to her problems other than war.
Churchill offers supplies from the British Empire in exchange for
Japanese help in the war. Japan
declares war on Germany in 1941.
The addition of Japanese army and naval units does
not give the allies a decisive advantage, but it does help out a bit,
although the Japanese blot their copybook a bit by demanding the right to
take Madagascar. The Japanese
navy does help the British take out the remains of the Italian navy –
which places Italy completely under Germany’s power – and assist the
British with a campaign against Sardina.
The British then present an ultimation to Vichy
France. Accusing the Vichy
regime of aiding the Germans, Britain demands that they disarm their
colonies and place them under British supervision.
Naturally, the French refuse, but the British and Japanese cut the
French colonies off from their homeland and invade them.
The last French colony falls in 1942 and the British allow de
Gaulle to rule most of them as a puppet empire.
Japan, however, gets Indochina and effective control of the Dutch
East Indies, as well as Madagascar.
The war comes to an end in 1943. The two sides can glower at each other, but they really
can’t hurt each other much. Germany
cannot invade Britain, nor can they reach any part of the British Empire.
Britain can bomb and harass the German forces, but they cannot hand
out mortal blows. Both
Britain and Japan are financially exhausted, while Germany has to keep one
eye on Stalin, who is trying to see which side will pay him better for his
assistance. Britain
reluctantly recognises the German conquests, while Germany recognises the
loss of the Italian and French colonies to the allies. |
