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Today in Alternate History

This Day in Alternate History Blog

Coalitions
 

If the previous year was anything to judge by, then one may have thought that things could only get better. Relations between nations & people had become strained to say the least. More ominously, the United States & its allies had commenced rearmament. Surprisingly, few in Europe or elsewhere for that matter, objected to this action. After the policies of the Bush Administration of the previous eight years, the fact that President John Drache followed along similar lines surprised few.

As a result of this, there was little reaction in copying the American rearmament programs. Only China continued with its policy of rearmament, but then again China had been doing so since 1995. As the world had witnessed changes in China, mostly for the better, since the dreadful days prior to 1990, few had voiced opposition to China’s military policy. Only Taiwan strongly opposed any mainland action & with some right. Still this was balanced by Taiwan’s own military strength along with assurances of assistance from the USA should China try anything stupid.

The sleeping giant, of course, was Russia. Being the remanent of the old Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), Russia had inherited most of the USSR’s military strength. This strength, however, was soon discovered to be anything but the definition of the word. Nonetheless Russia gained control over the USSR’s vast nuclear arsenal. Being thus equal in nuclear strength to America, Russia was still a country to be reckoned with on the international scene.

Alas for Russia, the ending of the Cold War meant that she had effectively lost. After the USSR fell apart, Russia was left with incredible burdens. Instead of continuing to enjoy centre world stage, along with the USA, Russia retreated into its shell due to its internal problems. This, along with a reluctant China, ensured that the United States became the world’s only superpower. More to the point, America could do whatever it wanted, within reason, wherever it wanted. And there was no-one to keep America in line: until now.

Now that NATO had all but broken up, France & Germany decided to organise a European version. In many respects this would recognise the current realities which had recently taken place. NATO, though, would still survive & continue to be called by the name of the old treaty, albeit with many internal changes. For instance, NATO headquarters would be moved from Brussels to London. Any remaining NATO forces & offices within Europe would be moved to reminding members. This caused some stir as even Spain had left NATO. Having had a change of government, Spain was no longer considered an ally of the United States.

As said, Europe decided to establish its own military organisation to counter NATO. Called the European Defence Organisation (EDO), it immediately took over the same duties & responsibilities that NATO conducted out of Brussels. In fact as NATO personnel left the various buildings around Europe, EDO personnel moved in. Ironically, many of these people were one & the same as many were citizens of EDO countries.

Probably the most fundamental aspect of EDO, though, was the fact that the United European Force (UEF), minus British units, effectively came under the direct control of EDO. This was a departure from NATO where the UEF had been kept as a separate independent identity. Secondly, & in parallel with the establishment of EDO, more units were transferred to the UEF from the member countries of EDO. This essentially meant that the size of UEF almost doubled overnight.

Although the Americans were also increasing the size of their military, the Americans viewed the increase in the size of the UEF as threatening. What they did not understand, though, was the fact that all the Europeans had done was to transfer units around into a centralised command. Essentially there was no difference now as before under NATO. The main difference was structural: that the separate nationalities no longer mattered as all units in the UEF came under the one command. There was, however, still in Europe separate national forces. These, though, now acted like a reserve pool for the UEF. But essentially, European troop numbers had not changed.

Another important aspect of EDO was the direct French involvement. Unlike NATO, France had decided that it be a full member of EDO. There was some opposition to this, being seen as surrendering the country’s ultimate sovereignty to a foreign power, but the pro Europeans won the day. Somewhat disturbingly, though, France’s authority over its nuclear arsenal would also be transferred to EDO, albeit with restrictions.

It was probably this aspect of the EDO treaty which was too much for the United States to accept. Having already become concerned over the increase in size of the UEF, now that the EDO was also armed with nuclear weapons, the USA had to do something. Ironically Drache turned to the United Nations for help. The one organisation which Drache & many other American Presidents had complained about for decades, was now thrusted into the middle of an impending international crisis.
 

Decline of the Old
 

Many speculated at the time, & have done so ever since, that Drache was merely waiting for some event or incident with Europe in order to challenge the UN. Although there were several incidents between the two powers, he needed one which he could truthfully claim as a threat to world peace. There had already been, as noted, several decisions made by the UN which had gained criticism from Drache, but these were the usual run of the mill stuff which was nothing new. But a nuclear crisis with France was something else entirely different.

One the same day that France announced its decision to transfer authority for its nuclear arsenal to EDO, Drache declared that this decision "was a clear and present danger to the United States & its allies." But instead of merely making noises about the transfer, he went further by announcing that, "as a result of this move, I have ordered that a large number of our nuclear missiles be targeted on the European nuclear threat."

The Europeans could not believe what they had just heard. More to the point, what did Drache actually mean? Considering France only had 18 nuclear missiles in silos, none of which could reach the United States, France could not understand why the Americans were reacting in such a way. The only weapons which France had, which could be a threat to the Americans, were its four ballistic submarines, but they would have to sail into the North Atlantic Ocean in order to launch their missiles at Washington. As far as France, & her allies were concerned, the Americans had truly gone mad.

If the American President’s announcement was not bad enough, his action in the United Nations was. And it is this action which has gained much analysis over the years. Drache demanded a special meeting, not only of the General Assembly, but also of the Security Council. Without giving a hint of what he wanted, although everyone guessed what the topic would be, Drache demanded that the Security Council order France to take back its nuclear arsenal from EDO.

It was a smart move on behalf of Drache. No where did he demand the destruction of the nuclear weapons - on the contrary he recognised France’s right to have them - but he demanded, under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, that France could not transfer its nuclear weapons to anyone else let alone EDO. It was a very convincing argument & one which isolated France on both moral & legal grounds. When the Security Council voted on the matter, however, France’s veto ensured that the declaration was rejected. France, though, was not totally alone as many assumed.

As far as Drache was concerned, however, France had no choice. He was to be disappointed, though, as both China & Russia abstained on their vote. Their position, hence, merely reinforced Drache’s resolve. It also gave him all the armament that he needed for his overall plan. As noted, Drache had deliberately waited for a crisis to emerge in which he could use for his advantage. Now he had the moral right for America to react in whatever way he chose. He could go back to the American people pleading his case, knowing that the vast majority would support him.

Prior to that, however, Drache had still to address the General Assembly of the United Nations. At first, most people believed that Drache would do the usual thing & complain about the Security Council & the general perceived uselessness of the UN. Not only did they get this expected speech, but what came next was thoroughly unexpected. Standing there, before the world’s representatives, Drache announced that the USA would be withdrawing from the international organisation with the intention of "setting up a community of nations, one of which will ensure peace & order will be achieved."

The reaction of the diplomats was wild to say the least. Many were stunned. Many abused Drache whilst just as many applauded his challenging speech. To add insult to injury, Drache also ordered the UN to get out of New York & close the UN building. Not only did the American public celebrate the fact that they were finally losing the burden of the UN, as many Americans considered the it to be, but a prime piece of real estate would come onto the New York property market. This, if anything, gladdened the Mayor of New York who would no longer have to deal with all the traffic hassles caused by the UN diplomats who enjoyed diplomatic immunity.
 

A New World Order
 

The Community of Nations (CN), the international organisation which Drache established, was rather small at first. Its only members, on the day it was established, were the USA, Canada, Mexico, Israel, Australia, Poland, Kuwait & Britain. Soon afterwards, though, Japan, South Korea, Syria, Jordan, Iraq & Palestine joined. Yet compared to the UN, it was still small. Having said that, the economic power, which the CN enjoyed, simply overwhelmed the planet. And it was this power which would soon tempt others to join.

As a result of a lot of inducements, almost all of Latin & South America signed up. These countries had been promised a large amount of aid, most of it humanitarian, the likes of which they had never seen before. The UN, even at its best, could not offer the same deal as that which the CN had on offer. There would be some conditions, naturally, but these could be tolerated. Obviously, leaving the UN was the leading one.

The CN expansion, however, did not end in South America. Soon several African countries, many times worse off  than those in South America, joined the CN as well. Like the South Americans, the aid came with the same conditions. Unlike in South America, though, many thought these conditions came with a far too higher price. Many had strong ties with Europe & wanted to be seen as neutral if nothing else. Nonetheless, by the end of the year,  nearly half of Africa had joined the CN.

Asia & Europe, though, were slim pickings for the CN. Only the Philippines decided to join the CN, whilst the rest of Asia declined & some far from a polite refusal. Malaysia was downright hostile in its rejection, whilst both India & Pakistan were not overly different in their criticism. New Zealand was also hostile & told the CN to "Buggah off." When the CN delegation asked what that meant, the New Zealand Prime Minister said "It means the same as go to Hell!"  Ironically Taiwan was refused entry into the CN on the thought that if it did join then China could quickly become a major threat to the fledgling organisation.

Having mentioned China, whatever Drache was thinking otherwise, China refused to have anything to do with the CN. In fact China was the first to lead opposition to the CN everywhere, but none more so than in the UN. For some reason, China viewed the withdrawal of the USA from the UN as wrong, but the establishment of the CN by the USA was treachery. Clearly China was not going to join the others in the CN.

Russia, like most of Europe, said no to the offer to join the CN. Again Drache thought otherwise for whatever reason. Even after threats to stop humanitarian aid to Russia from the USA, the Russians said no. It appeared that the Russians had thrown their lot in with the Europeans, which Drache naturally thought foolish. In a similar fashion, most of Europe clearly said no to the CN. Only Britain & Poland said yes making them rather lonely.

Unlike Asia & Europe, the Middle East became a gold mine for CN conversion. Already enjoying members in the area from the beginning, the list of converts grew as the year went on. Thus Lebanon, Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar & Oman all joined the new organisation, but without the offer of the large aid packages which had been offered to the impoverished nation members. More to the point, this meant that most of the world’s oil producers were now under the influence of the CN.

Only Saudi Arabia & Iran stayed clear of the CN for various reasons. Iran wanted to keep its independence, especially from anything American. Furthermore, there were religious & racial aspects involved. Being a different branch of the Muslim faith, they expressed concern about being forced to change. Then there was the fact that they were Persians & not Arabs.

The Saudi’s had similar views, ironically, with the Iranians. The first was suspicions of American intentions. What with external threats to their country removed in 2003, the Saudi’s had become rather cold to anything American. That, coupled with what appeared to be an American takeover of their neighbours, further convinced the Saudi’s that the CN was not the way to go. Although it meant their isolation, it also meant their independence. Besides, there were political factors as well. The CN was clearly supporting democratic reforms everywhere. This was something which the Saudi Royal Family could do without.

Whilst the CN rapidly expanded, the UN could do nothing as members left. It could not match the offers which the CN dangled out as carrots to the nations of the world. Furthermore, it had even been evicted unceremoniously from its building in New York. To add insult to injury, the CN moved in a few weeks later. Many diplomats, somewhat ridiculously, went back into their old offices after removing everything a week or two before. Many commentators observed that the new CN appeared to be behaving no differently than the UN.

Thus from the sidelines the UN settled back in Geneva. Debate soon broke out in the General Assembly over what to do next. Some changes were adopted at the beginning, especially reforms to the Security Council. Soon Germany had become a permanent member of the Council along with India, the appointment of which surprised a lot of people. Still, selecting India, with the second largest population on Earth as well as having a nuclear arsenal akin to France, was, in many ways, logical.
 

First Actions
 

Whilst the UN continued to remain almost dormant in Geneva, the CN began bold ventures around the globe. As mentioned, the advanced members of the CN began to pour vast amounts of aid into the impoverished members at levels akin to times of great disasters. Of course the poor nations were grateful for the humanitarian aid, but many were not so sure about the supervisors & advisers who came with it. Basically these countries civilian authorities were left out of the process of distributing the supplies. Instead, personnel from the United States, & its various allies, ensured that the aid got though to the desperate people who needed it.

The American aid, though, did not just end with humanitarian needs. Not long after the aid arrived in several countries, rival factions & warlords began to impress their influence over the much needed supplies. Of course this was one of the reasons why the CN sent supervisors, but the local power of the warlords was, more often than not, greater than anything these supervisors could counter at first. Needless to say, that would change.

As part of the Charter of the CN, the CN could support its humanitarian efforts through military force if need be. And as far as Drache was concerned, if force was not used now then the CN would be seen as useless & as toothless as the UN often appeared. With little resistance in the CN General Assembly, the USA got its way. Soon thousands of heavily armed troops were being transported to the problem areas.

The geopolitical arena in several regions thus changed dramatically. Soon, CN troops, from various member states although mostly from the USA, Britain, Canada, Australia & Mexico, began intensive combat with warlords & Marxist guerillas in countries as diverse as Colombia, Somalia, the Philippines & the Congo. Overnight, it seemed to onlookers, some form of World War III had just begun, considering conflict was being wagged on three continents.

For the warlords & guerillas, it was all a mute point. With the full resources of the United States turned against them, the best they could do was to hide in caves. Extensive electronic & technological warfare was utilised against them. Satellites, employing a whole wide range of devices, were able to find the locations of various warlords & guerrilla groups. When Satellites did not work, aircraft employing the latest in surveillance equipment tracked them down through various means, from tracking radios & mobile phones to employing probes to listen for breathing or even the sound of a human heartbeat.

Of course, the mission of the CN did not merely end with discovering the location of the enemy. Next came the combat. This was done via many methods, from using unpiloted aircraft attacking a target with Hellfire missiles to launching an all out assault with combat troops. More often than not, the sneak Hellfire attack was usually successful, but went unnoticed due to the shear size of the combat operations. After witnessing one such attack, a CNN reporter said that it was "like Hell on Earth", such was the horrendous violence of a typical CN military attack.

By the end of the year, the violence was mostly over. Thousands of the enemy had been annihilated. Drache could be seen everywhere claiming a massive victory for peace loving civilians regardless of race, colour or creed. There was much truth to his claims too. Millions of previous victims now lived without the fear of a warlord or some Marxist rebel group. They could now walk the streets of their villages, towns & cities in peace. CN peace keepers ensured that they could. They were even safe from their own governments, several of whom had to face many reforms very soon or be replaced by an interim government appointed by the CN. To many around the globe, it appeared that the CN could achieve everything which the UN could never accomplish.

That might have been great for the living, or the survivors of these warlord wars, but it had come at a great price. One of the main issues of these wars, which Drache did everything to keep quiet, was the civilian cost. In many cases, it was hard for the CN military to distinguish friend from foe. Just like in Vietnam many years ago, the enemy did not always fight in uniform. In fact in most cases, they wore the same clothes as civilians. Nonetheless, that did not stop them being an enemy force at war with the CN. Determined not to lose this war, Drache gave drastic orders to attack anything suspicious, regardless of the lack of evidence.

The result of these controversial orders was, naturally, innocent civilian casualties. Not much was mentioned about this in the media at the time, because the issue was never discussed out of house. Whenever it was raised by an inquiring reporter, it was always denied. The reporter would then be shipped out from the war zone by the military & suggested to report about something else. Other than that, phrases such as "I cannot confirm or deny that due to security reasons, you understand" became a very common statement at media briefings.

Still, that did not comfort the dead. Many peace activist groups, even UNICOR (a major humanitarian division of the UN), protested the way in which the CN military conducted the war. Regardless of how well the CN managed the reporting of the conflict, the simple fact that even the CN had to admit occasionally to civilian deaths. Needless to say, such announcements got others involved. Soon the EDO military were conducting satellite surveillance & were looking down on the various war zones. What they saw shocked even seasoned veterans.

France, not long afterwards, soon raised the issue at the UN Security Council. Supplying as much information as possible, from EDO’s surveillance efforts, the French Ambassador claimed that for every warlord soldier or guerilla killed in action at least ten innocent civilians were killed in the process. The Russian Ambassador, who had been quiet on the issue up until now, concurred with his French counterpart. As he was conducting his speech, his staff entered the chamber in rather dramatic fashion & began to hand out their own satellite data about the conflict. He concluded that the death rates quoted by the French Ambassador "are a conservative estimate. It’s probably more like 100 civilian deaths for every enemy killed."

The issue, of course, did not merely stay within the chamber of the UN Security Council. Making their views very public, a war of words soon began between the leadership of the UN & the CN. Drache, naturally, rejected the claims of the UN. Stating that the UN had no idea what it was talking about, he admitted that there had been some civilian deaths as had already been admitted, but that these were very low in number compared to the casualties suffered by the enemy. What he did not add was that many of the casualties had been counted as the enemy regardless of the truth. As often happens in war, truth is always the first casualty, followed very closely by humanity.

As the world saw another New Year begin, global tension was clearly evident. Two enormously powerful political blocks had become firmly established. Although there was no hint of any possible war between the two, they were not on friendly terms either. Whether that would change no one knew. But what was obvious was the fact that the CN certainly had their act together. Within a year, it had achieved far more than the UN had done in over seven decades. Whether, in the long run, it would be a significant benefit to the world, was still to be seen.

On to Year Three

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