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Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM |
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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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Western
Sunset 1.
A new America
The Third American Revolution, as it was called, took place in January
2009, the very same day that the new Democratic President took - or better
should have taken - charge. The right wing, white separatist movement that
seized the power with an unexpected but bloodless coup implemented the division
of the USA on racial and ethnic basis, while the Democratic Party was declared
outlaw. Most of the country, which continued to be called United States of
America, was reserved to whites of European descent. The inhabitants belonging
to other races or those of mixed origin were transferred to a number of
semi-independent “multi-ethnic” states, administrated by the US: California,
Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, New Jersey, and the city-state of New
York. Louisiana became an independent Afro-American state. Oklahoma and the
major native reservations became the independent homelands of the American
Native people. The specter of a revolt or even a civil war was avoided by giving
the people forced to move a fair economic compensation. This of course didn’t
avoid disorders and a chorus of protests from the large liberal sections of the
American society, and from most of the world countries. Particularly intense was
the reaction of the Jewish communities, especially when, a few days after the
Revolution, the new govern announced a sharp reduction of the military aid to
Israel. But even this was to be soon surpassed by other events. 2.
West in Decline
The
reaction of the other Western nations to the American dramatic revolution was a
mix of consternation and regret. The UK threatened to leave NATO, and France
ceased any cooperation with the Alliance. But on the whole the weak and divided
European Union (which the press was starting to call "European
Disunion"), while condemning the coup, was unable to agree on any actual
sanction.
By now the European Union had been faced by a deep crisis for several
years. The economic recession, which stroke the world at the shift of the new
century hadn’t spared Europe. By 2003, despite the adoption of a common
currency, the European economies were in steady decline. Three main factors
concurred to this situation. First, European industry was afflicted by a lack of
competitiveness and innovation. Second, the steady decline of the population -
and as a consequence of the productive forces - was bringing an increasing
burden on the social system and on the public finances. Third, mass immigration,
seen by some economists as a partial solution to the previous problem, was in
reality aggravating the burden on the budgets of the European states. The
enormous afflux of refugees, most of them in reality ”economic refugees",
had brought into Europe a mass of people, which for the most were unable to find
a real place into the job market and that had to be taken care of by the state
welfare system. Those immigrants who were employed were mostly confined to the
lowest jobs, often the only jobs available - those that many spoiled European
youths refused to do. On the other side of the token, unemployment among the
indigenous Europeans was rather high and increasing, and many unemployed people
felt that the immigrants stole their jobs. All this brought resentment and
social unrest. In addition to these three problems, Germany had a fourth: the
economical ballast represented by East Germany, which with one-fourth of the
total population produced only a little fraction of the national wealth. It’s
then not surprising that in the winter 2004 the creaking system finally
collapsed. The crack of the Frankfurt stock exchange was compared to that of
Wall Street in 1929. And while the world economies, with massive interventions
from the World Bank, were generally able to limit the damage, Germany was
brought to its knees. In few months unemployment rocketed to the levels of the
early Thirties. At the same time Europe was hit by a new wave of Islamic
terrorism, spurned by the contemporary seizing of power in Algeria by the Muslim
fundamentalists. The center-leftist coalition in Germany was completely unable
to cope with the crisis. Anticipated elections brought to the power a right wing
coalition formed by the CDU, CSU and Republican Parties. One of the first moves
of the new government, ratified by the parliament, was a massive expulsion and
deportation of extra-European immigrants. This move was to have unexpected
effects in the Middle East.
Turks represented the major ethnic group among the immigrant community in
Germany. Conflicts among Turks and ethnic Germans had already been going on for
a long time. The new government’s decision to expel most of them caused almost
an open revolt. In Turkey the nationalist sentiments, always strong among the
people, were suddenly spurned. The nationalists started to accuse the government
of passivity and to blame it for preserving the alliance with the perpetrators
of what they considered an offence to their compatriots and to their national
pride. The nationalists allied themselves with the Islamic fundamentalists,
which were already in turmoil due to the victory of their fellow revolutionaries
in Algeria. The consequence was a fatal one: in August 2004 the fundamentalists,
helped by members of the Armed Forces, overturned the government and took the
power. Their first move was the exit of Turkey from NATO. But this was only the
beginning.
The new President and religious leader of the country - who assumed the
name of Mohammed III - had much more far reaching projects. He intended to turn
Turkey into the leading country of the Muslim world and to reestablish the
preeminence that his country had enjoyed in the Middle East during the glorious
days of the Ottoman Empire. He proposed not only an alliance, but also a true
confederation of Islamic states - with a common foreign policy and defense -
under Turkish guide. In October 2004 the birth of the Islamic Confederation was
officially proclaimed in Ankara. Algeria, Libya, Sudan, Jordan and Syria were
the first members, followed a few weeks later by Iran and Iraq (the UN had
lifted the sanctions against Iraq early that year, with the guarantee that
Kurdish autonomy in the North would be preserved). Like pieces of domino, even
Egypt fell to the Islamic revolution a few months later and the country
immediately joined the Confederation.
The Islamic turmoil concerned the West to the extreme, but - while
Germany continued along its new course - as so often before the Western powers
were unable to act in some effective and concerted way. In 2008 the US
Democratic candidate promised to strengthen America's ties with Israel. At the
same time he proposed defense cuts to implement its social politics. This of
course didn’t please the right wing radicals, which considered the support to
Israel the main cause of Islamic resentment against the US. Nor it pleased the
military, which considered madness to reduce the defense budget at such a time
of crisis. As a consequence, after the democratic victory, a group of Pentagon
officials gave their support to the right wing conspirators. Their help was
determinant in the success of the January coup. But, while a new strong govern
had taken the reins of the United States, most of the other western countries
were watching uncertain and afraid the ominous events unfolding before their
eyes. 3.
The Islamic Military Power
From the beginning the new Confederation started an impressive program of
rearmament. The Confederation controlled a great deal of the Middle East oil
resources, which gave it an immense financial power. This power was fully
exploited for the acquisition of military material and military technologies,
while the living conditions of the inhabitants remained at Third World levels.
This didn’t dampen the enthusiasm of the Muslim masses however.
The first and most important source of armaments was of course Russia,
with China a not too distant second. The sell of weapons to the Confederation by
Russia was not a hostile move against the West: the Russian economy was in ruin
and the country was in desperate need of cash.
A steady, huge stream of weapons started flowing to the Confederate
countries - in change of ready cash payments, oil and gas deliveries or even
through loans. The Confederation acquired from Russia the latest versions of the
T-80/T-90
and the new Black Eagle Main Battle Tank, with all the most modern Russian ATGWs
and SAMs. It acquired also MIG-29S
Fulcrum-C, Fencer and Flanker
fighter aircraft. Western intelligence agencies were however puzzled by the fact
that most of the latter didn’t belong to the Su-30, Su-35 and Su-37
land versions, but to the navalized version, the Su-33.
This was only partly explained by the acquisition, in the summer 2005, of the
Russian carrier Admiral Kutnezov, which
was renamed Al Fatah (victory). The
Confederation acquired also four Sovremenny
class destroyers, eight Krivak II and III
frigates, and, more ominously, the battlecruiser Admiral
Nachimov (renamed Ayatollah Khomeini)
and one Alfa class nuclear attack
submarine. The naval ambitions of Mohammed III had however already emerged early
that spring, when US satellites noticed that strange modifications were in
course on three enormous ULCCs (Ultra Large Crude Carriers) in the docks of the
Confederation - two in Iran and one in Turkey. The analysts of the various US
intelligence agencies concluded that the works had a military finality,
especially after considering the efforts that the Confederates made to mask
them. Bur the exact nature of the works was at first unclear, even if it was
generally assumed that the tankers were destined to become replenishment or
supply ships.
To compensate the enormous costs of the high-tech Russian equipment the
Islamic Confederation acquired from China cheap MBTs (Type
85 and 90), troop carriers, MRLs
(Multiple Rocket Launchers) and guns. Even so, it’s not surprising that in
2005 the defense budget of the states of the Confederation rocketed to almost
30% of their GDPs. An austere domestic economic policy was implemented. But this
was in line with the Islamic ideals, which rejected the welfare and luxury of
the West, while Muslim solidarity and Muslim charity organizations took care of
the poorest and most dispossessed citizens. The dramatic expansion of the Armed
Forces had also the effect to adsorb the unemployment among the young people.
The tense relations between Israel and the new US government didn’t
change the Muslim attitude towards America. To the Islamic leaders America
remained the great Satan, and the new govern was seen as an evil and racist
establishment. Israel war machine wasn’t, at least for the time being,
affected by the cuts in the US aid program. Israel had an efficient, largely
self-relying defense industries, and spare parts for its American equipment was
available on the market from third countries. But the economy of the little
state received a hard blow.
But the US/Israel quarrel was to come to an abrupt end in the following
autumn. Two events caused this change. The first was the shocking realization by
the US defense analysts that the three supertankers under modification in Iran
and Turkey were not destined, as it was first thought, to become logistical
ships. They were being transformed into monster 'arsenal-ships', the biggest
warships ever conceived. The engineers of the Confederation had accomplished
something original: they had initially kept the aft superstructures - which at
first had misled the Western intelligence - but had started building flying
decks on the enormously long hulls. Now the big orders of Su-33
from Russia found finally an explanation. But the defense analysts were almost
certain that the aircraft-carrier role was not the main purpose of the
monster-ships. The detailed analysis of satellite pictures had showed evidence
of massive armor and a tremendous amount of missile armament being added. The
lack of confirmation by HUMINT (Human Intelligence) sources - a notorious weak
point in American intelligence, especially when the Muslim world was concerned -
left a few skeptics among the military; but most of the US leadership suddenly
realized that America was no longer unchallenged at sea, where it had previously
felt invulnerable. To make matters worse, American satellites discovered also
that the Confederation had started building super-transport ships.
The second event was the Islamic revolution in Saudi Arabia. The Islamic
fundamentalists had long criticized the pro-American inclinations of the
reigning house. During the summer there were demonstrations and protests on the
streets, which occasionally degenerated in bloody incidents when the National
Guard tried to disperse the demonstrators. Now at last the bubble exploded. With
help from members of the Armed Forces and from an angry mob invading the streets
of Riyadh and Medina, the opposition seized the power. Almost immediately the
new Islamic monarchy, nominally presided by a member of a collateral branch of
the reigning House, but actually controlled by the religious leaders from Mecca,
joined the Confederation. The King and the other Saudi rulers fled to the Gulf
States. The Saudis started immediately to work on the conversion of an even
bigger supertanker to arsenal-ship.
Now Israel was completely encircled by enemies and felt really in mortal
danger. On the other side the vital oil supply of the West were also in danger,
while the oil price continued to steep up. UK and France forces had already left
Saudi Arabia when the sanctions against Iraq were lifted. Now also the 5,000 US
troops had to leave and were re-deployed in the Gulf States. The USA sent
reinforcements and in December announced that the military assistance to Israel
would return to the levels precedent the Revolution. In addiction the new
President - McCulloch - reluctantly requested from the provisional Congress an
extraordinary fund of 500 millions $ for military aids to Israel. It was
approved after very lively debates. 4.
Countdown to Armageddon
In January, giving way to the pressures from the American government, the
Russian and the Ukrainian Presidents announced the suspension of all sells of
military items to the Islamic Confederation. It was too late. Not only an
enormous amount of weapon systems, including the already mentioned warships, had
already been delivered - the need of cash had made the Russians quick in cutting
corners - but the rights had been acquired for the production in the Confederate
states of many of these weapons. In addiction, China continued and even
increased its sells, while France, hostile to the new US government, didn’t
refrain from taking the place left vacant by Russia and Ukraine. During the
previous years France had delivered a few self-propelled howitzers and missile
systems. Now it sold to Algeria, Syria and Saudi Arabia its Leclerc
MBT and Rafale fighter aircraft
and to Saudi Arabia two destroyers of the Georges
Leygues class. Since in war all the armed and paramilitary forces of the
Confederate nations would fall under Confederate command, it was as these
weapons had been sold to the government of the Confederation itself.
In the meanwhile, the first months of the year 2010 saw a build-up of
American forces in the Gulf States, to protect them and the vital oil supplies
of the West. First to arrive, as in 1990, was the 101st Air Assault division,
followed by the 24th Infantry (mechanized) and the 1st Cavalry (armored).
In February the Cuban government stipulated a military agreement with the
Islamic Confederation, whose terms allowed the deployment of aircraft and troops
on Cuban territory.
Now the set was almost ready for the final showdown between East and
West.
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