| A Blast in the Oblast  by Steve Payne 
     Author 
    says: what if the South Ossetia War of 2008 had escalated into a great 
    power confrontation? Please note that the opinions expressed in this post do 
    not necessarily reflect the views of the author(s). 
     
      On August 8th 2008,
     
      Please click the
        
        
          
           icon to follow us on Squidoo.on this day President Dick Cheney 
        
        ordered a surgical strike on a tunnel connecting Russia with the breakaway 
        
        Georgian region of South Ossetia which at the time was
        
        
          
          full of Russian soldiers and military hardware. 
 Until 1989, South Ossetia was a disputed region and partly recognized 
        
        state in the South Caucasus, an Autonomous Oblast within the former 
        
        Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, 
        
        South Ossetians declared independence from Georgia, proclaiming the 
        
        creation of a "Republic of South Ossetia". The Georgian government 
        
        responded by abolishing South Ossetia's autonomy and retaking the region 
        
        by force. Georgian fighting against those controlling South Ossetia would 
        
        occur on two other occasions, in 2004 and 2008.
 
 After the second attempt at independence in 2004, peacekeepers from both 
        
        Russia and George were present in the region, a dangerous deployment which 
        
        sowed the seeds for a wider conflict. And so inevitably for their third 
        
        (and final) attempt at independence, the South Ossetians decided to go for 
        
        broke, by throwing in their lot with the resurgent Russian Federation. 
        
        Problem was that whilst Russia slept, Georgia had joined NATO.
 
 The conduct of the war would no longer be decided by South Ossetians and 
        
        Georgians, nor by George W. Bush who had been assassinated in 2006. 
        
        Instead the South Ossetia Conflict would become a periphery war, a flash 
        
        point in the wider struggle to enlarge NATO eastwards. Because an oil 
        
        revenue windfall had enabled the Russian Federation the luxury of 
        
        rediscovering its chauvinism, and by 2008, NATO expansion was a threat to 
        
        global security. A clash of authority was approaching and the Kremlin was 
        
        already threatening to close US Bases that had been established in the 
        
        Caucus region during the Gulf War. In short, the situation could be 
        
        compared to a matchbox waiting for a spark.
 
 And the spark came soon enough. Following a summer of escalating tension, 
        
        on the 6th August, Georgian forces re-invaded the territory and Russian 
        
        troops mobilized in support of the South Ossetian separatist forces. A 
        
        pre-emptive, retaliatory strike was widely expected. In fact, a direct 
        
        military response from Washington had been all but inevitable since the US 
        
        suspended the NATO-Russia Council, the primary forums for bilateral 
        
        interaction on security issues.
 
        
        
       
      
      
      
      
      
      
 
     
     Author 
    says to view guest historian's comments on this post please visit the
    
    Today in Alternate History web site. 
 
     Steve Payne, Editor of
    
    Today in Alternate History, a Daily Updating Blog of Important Events In 
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    superpower, aliens influencing human history in the 18th century and Teddy 
    Roosevelt winning his 3rd term as president abound in this interesting 
    fictional blog. 
 
 
    
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