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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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Braveheart – The Scottish War of Independence
For the sake of clarity, I’ve referred to the
secessionists/nationalists as ‘Scots’ and the opponents as ‘English’,
although this is a gross over-simplification. Introduction To most historians, the inevitably of the Scottish
secession and the subsequent war for independence is holy writ. The actions of the Thatcher government in 1989 made conflict
between England and Scotland inevitable. The introduction and mishandling of the Poll Tax in
Scotland was the catalyst for the war. The
Poll Tax, which charged everyone in Scotland the exact same amount in tax, was
seen as a direct attack on Scotland, while the failure to introduce it to
England sparked outrage. The
success of the SNP in the elections provided a further chance for Thatcher to
mishandle Scotland. The Labour party had not promoted the campaign of civil
disobedience enthusiastically promoted by the SNP and the minor Scottish
parties. This was seen as a smaller
betrayal, which allowed the SNP to gain almost 95% of the Scottish seats in
Parliament. The Labour party
was weakened by this disaster as they had a smaller base in England and the
conservatives held most of the south. The
result was to return Thatcher for another term of office, but it was a
government without a single Scottish MP. The Tartan Army
The Scottish reaction to the poll tax disaster was one of
outrage. The majority of Scottish
taxpayers attempted to withhold payment, while excluding people who did pay, but
the government resorted to salary deductions and other underhand measures,
managing to collect most of the money. However,
some parties within Scotland were prepared to take stronger anti-government
measures and to force the government to withdraw the hated tax. The SNP has always had a lunatic fringe.
Extreme nationalists, English haters and racists made up some of the
party’s grassroots support. Some
senior figures within the party were tempted by the desire to force Scottish
independence – at the point of a gun if necessary.
They managed to restrain the extremists by a two-fold plan; first the SNP
would contest every seat in Scotland and hopefully claim a majority of Scottish
votes, which would then allow them to press Scotland’s case.
In case that plan failed, the Scots would meanwhile prepare an army,
declare independence, seize what military bases and negotiate on those grounds.
As a full civil war would finish Britain as a power in the world, it was
assumed that Thatcher would either surrender or be forced out of office. Once that course of action was decided upon, preparation
proceeded apace. The newly formed
and highly secret Scottish Liberation Army (SLA) was formed and trained.
Using arms contacts (lots of gunrunning through Glasgow) and ex-
soldiers, the SLA rapidly grew, as did their contacts within Scottish society.
Many Territorial Army soldiers were quietly approached and recruited, as
were many policemen and other organisations within Scotland. The Scots also drew up a series of plans to take over as many
British military bases within Scotland, often using agents within the bases. It may seem surprising that no British intelligence service
noticed the preparations. While
there were some close shaves, the careful use of sympathisers within Scotland
helped hide most of the preparations, policemen, for example, did not report
suspicious movements within their regions. Prelude to War
Margaret Thatcher’s victory in the 1992 general election
was a surprise to almost every political commenter, even though it should not
have been. (It remains a popular
counterfactual speculation on what might have happened if labour had been
elected.) The regions of England
that were mainly conservative were still enamoured or Thatcher or placed their
faith in the party. While there was
a considerable shift towards labour, the loss of most of the Scottish MPs to the
SNP fatally weakened Labour as a competing party. However, Labour’s betrayal of Scottish interests in 1989
made it difficult for any cooperation between the two parties, although it is
unlikely that such cooperation would have achieved anything. The Scottish MPs were seated and one of them was able to
present parliament with a petition. Signed
by every Scottish MP and a few of the English ones, it called upon Thatcher to
end the poll tax, call a Scottish parliament and grant it limited regional
powers. Thatcher, who was quite
sick of Scotland by this time, rejected this petition and refused to discuss any
changes to the UK constitution. Most
of the Scottish MPs returned to Scotland for party discussions, while two
remained in London. The SNP/SLA conference in late 1992 was acrimonious.
After much argument, it was decided to move ahead with the armed rising
and effective revolution. The MPs would form the first Scottish government, although
they invited the other party MPs as well, and the ones remaining in London would
press their case before parliament. Operation Wallace
The SLA launched its main plan on May 1st, 1992,
three weeks after the election. Scottish
forces took over most of the governmental offices and TA bases in Scotland,
while others took over most of the British military bases in the region.
Most of the Scottish personnel in the RA were willing to join the SLA,
while other chose to sit the conflict out.
The Scots were also able to take over the major RAF bases in Scotland,
although RAF Leeming was the site of a major gun battle between SLA forces and
the RAF Regiment – the base commander being from south England and never
approached by the Scots. The Scots
ended up with approximately half of Britain’s combat aircraft, although they
had few fast-bombers and even fewer pilots.
On the navel front, the Scots were able to capture most of Britain’s
submarines and a few surface vessels – including one of the four nuclear
submarines – and none of the carriers. Again,
crewing them would be a problem, although the SLA was confident that if they had
enough time, they could find volunteers from the Scottish fishing industry. The London morning was full of wild rumours and
hair-raising stories. The remaining
two Scottish MPs had persuaded the speaker to allow them to make a speech
‘pertaining to events in Scotland’. The
speaker, expecting a call for a vote of no confidence in the Thatcher
Government, permitted the speech, while asking as many MPs to attend as
possible. The Scottish speech was simple and to the point.
The Scots had suffered under English rule and they now were governed by a
government that had NO Scottish members, nor had shown any concern for Scottish
feelings. After a short digression
on the attempts to forge a compromise between the government and the Scots, the
Scottish MPs gave the final Scottish response – a unilateral declaration of
independence. Having done so, the
Scottish MPs withdrew from a parliament, boos and shouts of outrage ringing in
their ears. The English Response
The Thatcher Government was shaken by the Scottish
declaration, although few would have admitted it, many conservatives wanted to
remove Thatcher. The problem was,
of course, that a leadership struggle would weaken the party so much that it
might collapse. Having heard the
Scottish declaration, Thatcher discussed the government’s reaction, which was
announced to the commons that afternoon and also broadcast to the nation.
(It was an oddity of the conflict that the civilian population of both
sides would be able to hear both sides’ stories without serious problems.
There was no possible way that either side could use more than the
minimum censorship.) The Conservative government declared the session completely
and utterly illegal. Drawing
comparisons between the Scots and the Confederate States, Thatcher painted the
Scots in uncompromising terms, although she was willing to concede that the
Scots had been swept along by ‘malcorlants’ and ‘trouble-makers’.
She based this claim on the failure of MI5 to pick up more than slight
hints of the impending session, although the general willingness among the
Scottish population to either assist the SLA or turn a blind eye to its
activities blinded the eyes of Westminster. Thatcher, once convinced of the seriousness of the
situation, acted with speed and decision. The
Scottish ports were declared closed to travel and the RN was ordered to enforce
a blockade of those ports, a task made difficult by the need to shuffle personal
around and the Scottish submarines, which were being prepared for active
patrols. The Royal Army reserves
were called up to ‘re-establish order’, although Thatcher needed to prevent
Scottish units from deserting to the Scots. Some units made their way to Scotland, others were interned
for the duration of the war, and the Falklands detachment voted to remain on
duty there. Thatcher had wanted a quick and decisive attack on the
Scots, but was informed by the army leaders that the army was unprepared for a
quick campaign and SAS teams were not quickly available.
Thatcher did insert a few small teams, but one was wiped out and others
were unable to accomplish much. The Scots Independent
The Scottish people reacted in three different ways.
A loose majority were delighted at the actions of the SLA and volunteered
to support it in any way they could. Recruitment
for the Scottish Army proceeded quite fast, although this was limited by the
weapons situation and the need to train recruits so that they would be more than
just cannon fodder. The Scottish
navy was swiftly brought up to full complement, although they too needed
training time and preparation before they could contest the English blockade.
While some fanatics were in favour, the SNP/SLA council was determined
(and this Thatcher agreed with them wholeheartedly) to avoid the use of nuclear
weapons at all costs. The Scottish
Air Force was the weakest link in the Scottish chain; lacking enough pilots,
bombers and AWACS aircraft to be a completely active force, although the Scots
were confident that they could establish an aerial umbrella over any
battlefield. Not everyone in Scotland welcomed the separation from
England. Conservative supporters,
the ‘lairds’ (who expected the Scots to go republican), people who depended
on contacts with England (mainly businessmen) and people with relatives on the
other side of the border. The SNP/SLA
was not in the mode to tolerate any form of sabotage or subversion, but they
were willing to assist in reparation, as they did not want to create an
underclass that could be used by English forces. Soon, buses carried a few thousand people to
Berwick-Upon-Tweed, where they were transported to relatives or found hotels in
England. The First Skirmishes
The Thatcher Government was aware that time was not on
their side. If the Scots were able
to set up a completely independent system, their secession might be recognised
by the world, guaranteeing their independence.
America had already declared neutrality in the conflict, but large
numbers of Scottish-Americans and Irish-Americans had descended on Washington,
demanding action. Europe made vague
statements of sympathy (for whom was not mentioned), but did nothing, although
private arms dealers were more than happy to supply the Scots.
Iraq formally recognised Scotland and offered to send arms, although they
had little to send and the SLA refused to accept them in any case. There were three minor skirmishes between the declaration
of independence and the invasion. The
first one was more of an accidental skirmish than anything else – the Scottish
army had decided to establish watching posts along the border, but an
overzealous English commander had decided that they were artrilitary support
posts and ordered an attack. The
English forces used tanks, a couple of helicopters and a mortar to blast away at
the builders, who summoned reinforcements and returned fire.
After an hour-long firefight, the two sides fell back, neither having the
determination to press on into the other’s positions. The second battle was more serious.
Thatcher had determined that the oil wells in the North Sea were vitally
important and that they would prove a strong bargaining chip in any discussions.
She therefore ordered the RN to seize the oil wells. The Scots had sent some armed troops to the oil wells
however, and resisted. Scottish
navy units faced off against English ones and a full-scale battle developed.
The Scots fought bravely, but superior English numbers were hitting the
Scots hard – until the Scots send their few bombers into the fray, attacking
the English ships with anti-ship missiles.
The two sides broke off the conflict after the carrier HMS Ark Royal
was sunk, although the English had seized a few of the wells.
Both sides declared victory. The third battle was a very small skirmish, but it was
important to Scottish morale after the Battle of the North Sea.
The RN, which had been blockading Glasgow, lost a frigate to a Scottish
submarine, which then managed to evade a full-scale hunt by most of the English
fleet, returning safely to holy loch. Operation Hammer
The Thatcher Government was in trouble and knew it.
After much thought, they decided to launch an invasion of Scotland,
planning to capture the ‘terrorists’ headquarters in Edinburgh and
recovering most of the captured military equipment.
They then planned to slowly bring Scotland back to the union.
Towards this end, they started a massive mobilisation and prepared their
offensive, recalling troops from Germany and the Gulf. The Scots were not unaware of the English plans.
They had plenty of sympathisers south of the border and spies in England.
They started to prepare a defensive plan, although they knew if they lost
Edinburgh it would be hard to remain as an active government. Important members were moved from the city, none the less,
and preparations were made for its defence. The English started Operation Hammer on June 23rd.
They started by launching a massive air offensive directed against the
Scottish airfields, which was challenged by the Scottish air force, leading to
constant aerial conflict. They also
launched Medium Range Missiles at the Scottish airfields, causing considerable
damage and forcing the Scots to re-deploy from civilian airfields.
The English then launched a strong ground force towards Edinburgh from
Berwick. The Scots knew that they could not afford a big tank battle
as they had fewer tanks. They
therefore had prepared an ambush about midway to Edinburgh and sprung it once
the English got close enough. The
battle cost the English their confidence and about a quarter of their tanks,
while they lost almost all of the escorting helicopters.
The Scots were able to launch a helicopter attack of their own, which
severely dented the tank force and nearly wiped out the first echelon of
infantry. The English pushed through these obstacles with heavy
casutitites on all sides. They had,
however, entered a region mined and prepared for total war.
Instead of a fast push, the English found themselves bleeding from a
thousand small battles, while their air cover was intermittent at best.
The Scots were losing the air war, but were giving almost as good as they
got. After five days, in which the
English bled badly and gained nothing, the English commanders called off the
operation. The Scots let most of
them go, although a few units surrendered and others died fighting. Peace
Disillusion with the war united parties in England that
normally had no use for each other. Labour,
for example was concerned about the complete loss of the Scottish vote if
Scotland either became independent or was crushed.
The Liberals opposed a war against fellow British people.
Anti-war demonstrations began before Operation Hammer and gained ground
after the Scots reported the complete halting of the offensive.
The people wanted peace. The conservatives knew that Thatcher was leading them to
disaster. After a violent party
conference, the deflection of John major (Chancellor of the Exchequer) sealed
Thatcher’s fate; the party pushed her into resigning in favour of Micheal
Hessiltine, who became the next Prime Minister on 1st July. The peace conference began a week later.
Fortunately, there were no atrocities or annexations to blight the
conference (the closest thing to an atrocity that happened was clearly an
accident) and talks were cordial, if somewhat heated.
England agreed to recognise Scottish independence the first day, although
there was some preparation made for an IONA council for issues of mutual
concern. The British services, such
as rail and the post office, would be jointly funded.
There would be no tariffs between the two nations. Oil proved the main stumbling block; the Scots wanted the
entire oil fields and the English, who had provided most of the funding, wanted
some control over them. Finally,
England agreed to provide more funding in exchange for cheap oil and some
control over the fields. The war
was over. Aftermath
The Scots held their first proper election a month after
the peace conference. The SNP had
the highest success, reflecting their victory for Scotland, while the greens and
the liberals had about a third of parliament between them.
Labour and the conservatives polled very few votes and won no seats,
leaving Tony Blair and his cronies out in the cold.
Scotland’s politics would be dominated by the SNP for the next ten
years. After a vigorous debate, the Scots became a republic.
The Crown and Aristocratic lands and properties were confiscated and
became public land. Philip’s famous refusal to stop styling himself the duke of
Edinburgh led to a crisis in England and the forcible abdication of Queen
Elizabeth in favour of Prince Charles.
Despite developing a gun culture on the lines of the American one;
Scotland became reluctant to send any of its armed forces outside its borders.
Scotland’s role in the EU would become acrimonious and the Scots would
withdraw from the EU in 2000 after a dispute over fishing that was heavily
slanted in France and the Netherlands’s favour. England’s politics would enter a grim year in 1993.
The conservatives lost most of their seats in bye-elections, allowing a
liberal-democrat led coalition to win the next general election, which was
forced in 1994. The LibDems worked
to remove the monarchy, although poll results were inconclusive enough to hamper
that plan. The conservative support
for the US’s invasion of Iraq in mid-1993 broke that parties power, leading to
the election. Author’s Notes: I
confess that this AH is probably unlikely, but the potential for something like
it happening was quite high. I’ve
another version that involves massive greaulla war and atrocities that make this
one look like a world of light. The
AH is based on the premise that Thatcher might have been warned by the Scottish
experience not to go ahead and introduce the poll tax to England.
If she’d held off, its quite possible that her leadership would not be
challenged in 1990 and she’d remain Prime Minister until the elections in
1992. This meant that Scotland
would have endured the tax for longer. Labour historically refused to support the SNP/SSP/etc
campaign of non-paying and civil disobedience.
That was seen as a betrayal, so its not beyond the realm of possibility
that they would be punished for it in the next general election.
Of course, the SNP will never be able to hold a majority in British
politics as they only contest the Scottish seats. The SNP has always had a lunatic fringe.
The ‘tartan army’ is real; it just does very little, most recently
sending poison to Prince William. The
MI5 has had no big successes in tracking them, although they’re a small and
unimportant target compared to the IRA. Most
Scots simply don’t feel oppressed. For those who doubt that Scotland could mount a viable challenge to the UK military, there are the following facts to consider: Scotland provided about a third of the UK military at the time. Two of the three fast-jet bases are in Scotland, as are some of the important ports, including one of the nuclear submarine bases. Manning them would be a problem, but many Scottish fishermen were naval veterans and the navy kept a careful list of reserves.
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