| Bush Vetoes Bailout by Jeff Provine 
  
   Author 
    
    says: we're very pleased to present a new story from Jeff Provine's 
  
  excellent blog This 
    
    Day in Alternate History. Please note that the opinions expressed in 
  
  this post do not necessarily reflect the views of the author(s). 
     
      By October 3rd 2008,
     
      Please click the
      
       icon to follow us on Twitter. a vicious cycle of "predatory lending" 
      following comfortable economic growth in the mid-2000s gave way to one of 
      the largest economic disasters since the Great Depression. Governments all 
      over the world faced trade problems, collapsing values, and surging 
      commodities including oil and food costs. In the United States (often 
      blamed as the source of this disaster), the main issue was sub-prime 
      mortgages. 
       Under legislation to promote home-ownership in the Clinton era, laws 
      limiting the offers of loans to persons with poor credit were softened. A 
      housing bubble began, and money from investors quickly followed. Mortgages 
      were taken up by banks, resold to lending institutions, and parceled out 
      to securities, some at very high risk. When the growing economy hit an 
      inevitable stone in the road, mortgages began to default, causing a loss 
      to investors, causing a withdraw of spending, causing further economic 
      downturn. With houses pouring onto the market, home prices plummeted. The 
      stock market dove as well, and unemployment skyrocketed from businesses 
      forced to downsize.
 "Obama managing to avoid a full blown collapse, 
      atop a miscalculation on this scale by GWB, will pretty much remove the 
      Republicans from power for a generation at least. Now the real question is 
      if the US would consider Al-Qaeda worth paying attention to at all." - 
      reader's commentEconomic bad news seemed to swallow up all news, 
      even eclipsing military actions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Famously, Bernie 
      Madoff and his Ponzi scheme would be one of many examples of the 
      mishandling of funds that would all but destroy Americans' faith in 
      business. With an election in November, President George W. Bush called 
      for decisive action.
 
 On September 21, Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson would propose a 
      plan for some $700 billion in government funds to support mortgage-backed 
      securities like Freddie Mac, AIG, and Fannie Mae as well as major bankrupt 
      businesses like General Motors. The original proposal called for nearly 
      unlimited power as well as freedom from judicial review and oversight. 
      Americans booed the plan, and it underwent a week-long adjustment through 
      Congress before becoming the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008.
 
 "Loans to "persons with poor credit" (i.e., 
      low-income members of minority groups) played only a marginal role in the 
      creation of the housing bubble. By far more important was the overyuse 
      (and misuse) of financial derivatives, which fostered speculation at the 
      cost of a loss of accountability: after a while, no one could be sure 
      exactly who owned what debt, so "instruments" were traded fpor their 
      speculative value without regard to the ral money attached to actual 
      properties. Like all such bubbles, including the Internet bubble of the 
      nineties, tis one eventually burst. If the Clinton Administration deserves 
      blame, it isn't for fostering policies allowing more black people to buy 
      homes but for refusing to take a resolute stand against repeal of the 
      Glass-Steagall Act, the Depression-era measure aimed at separating 
      commercial banking from investment banking. The Republican Congress which 
      pushed through repeal was setting the country up for a repeat of the 
      banking crisis of the 1930s, which duly arrived. Clinton should have 
      vetoed it, gone on television to tell the country why, and dared the GOP 
      to override his veto and accept responsibility for the consequences--but 
      he didn't" - reader's commentOn September 24, Bush addressed the 
      nation, describing a disastrous future for the American economy if some 
      sort of action was not taken. The idea of using tax dollars to invest and 
      then be returned when the economy was sound came off as good to many until 
      the President mistakenly left out the word "back" from the phrase, "gives 
      our economy the flexibility and resilience to absorb shocks, adjust, and 
      bounce back".
 
 "Would the Michigan Nat'l Guard go up against 
      militarized union workers?" - reader's commentCommentators on both 
      sides (liberals looking to knock down Republican votes in November, 
      conservatives looking to stop the "socialization" of America) descended 
      upon the word, portraying the "bouncing" of the economy as a clear signal 
      that nothing was in control. The government would throw desperately needed 
      money at a problem, and debts would only rise. In a rash of speeches and a 
      viral video describing its methods against Keynesian economics of feeding 
      the cycle of boom and bust, the conservative economic ideals of Friedrich 
      Hayek came to the forefront. Allusions to the works of Ayn Rand began to 
      resound. "Let 'em Fail" drowned out the calls of "Too Big to Fail".
 
 "I'd hope Michigan would turn into much more of a 
      stand-off than all-out battle, but it'd essentially have to be a military 
      crackdown" - author's response Feeling the change in American 
      opinion, Bush vetoed the bailout bill, sending it back to Congress and 
      asking for something that "won't pat the back of lazy sleaseballs". 
      Another bill would be produced by the end of October called the Economic 
      Solvency Act of 2008. It posed stiffer regulations and granted power to 
      the FDIC to clean up the mess banks made with harsh penalties, including 
      criminal investigations.
 
 Wall Street reacted by collapsing. Americans flew into panic, stockpiling 
      weapons, bottled water, and canned goods. Riots broke out in major 
      industrial cities, practically tearing Michigan apart and creating 
      militarized Union workers locking down factories until agreed pay was 
      given. The 2008 election gave Democrat Barack Obama the White House and a 
      country on the verge of anarchy. While millions were devastated, his 
      alleviation programs akin to the WPA and breadlines of FDR kept the 
      country from total disaster, which was seen in many other countries with 
      open warfare in Greece and a collapse of rule in Iceland.
 
 The economy has readjusted and begun to rebuild, slowly, upon Hayek 
      grounds. The Second Great Depression drags on with promises that, one day, 
      jobs will be plentiful again. In the meantime, savings of whatever is left 
      are solid upon a gradually deflating dollar.
 
     
     Author 
    says in reality Bush and the nation at large approved the Paulson plan 
    and its promises of an economy that will indeed "bounce back". As future 
    generations cope with a continual federal deficit and a national debt 
    looking to cross $14 trillion by the end of 2010, an end to the recession 
    seems in sight, but unemployment remains depressingly high. To view guest historian's comments on this post please visit the
    
    Today in Alternate History web site.
 
 
     Jeff Provine, Guest Historian of
    
    Today in Alternate History, a Daily Updating Blog of Important Events In 
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    Roosevelt winning his 3rd term as president abound in this interesting 
    fictional blog. 
 
 
    
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