Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

The Mullah War of 2003 - 2004

Our POD is the fall of Kabul when the US media started whining ‘what’s next’. The potential next list was whittled down in the State of the Union in January of 2002 to the famous threesome Axis of Evil. What I am changing is the monomania fixation on Iraq to a more generalized fixation on the Axis in the context of finishing off Al Q.

The SOCOM resources are NOT pulled out of Afghanistan to prep the future Iraqi battlefield. They continue to be active on the Pakistani border BUT unlike OTL are also active on the Iranian border. We open a brigade camp with attached air base in Heart to support this. We lean on BOTH Pakistan AND Iran over giving sanctuary and transit to Al Q and Taleban remnants as well as support for ex-muj elements also resisting[Hekmar etc.].
Similarly 2002 becomes different in nuance. Cheney will still lead the charge at Iraq. However the emphasis will be somewhat different. Less blanket assertion on WMD and more emphasis on Sadam’s burden of proof that he doesn’t have them. MUCH more emphasis on what became known in 2004-5 as the oil for food scandal. In outline it was known in 2002. Kurds got their money directly. Kurds had no starvation, a functional state and infrastructure improvements. Why are Iraqi children starving and infrastructure well and truly trashed? We go public on UN, Euro, Iraqi double dealing. Demand public audits, power to compel testimony, waivers of diplomatic immunity. We will get NONE of it but it will play well in the US. When our idiots insist on going to Baghdad actually enforce the travel bans. Arrest Sean Penn, Congressman McDermot etc. Draw clear lines. Go over presence of Abu Nidal, Zarquai, Ansar al Islam. Make clear that we reserve the right to send SOCOM and / or merc mike forces in after them BUT say the same about Bin Lauden’s son and the several thousand in Iran. Clear links to 911 for that part of the US public prepared to listen. Make clear that Westphalia sovereignty will not be honored to any that give refuge to Al Q etc. We will be asked about Pakistan which gives Bush a chance to show moderation. Differentiate Pakistan by pointing out all the ways they are trying to cooperate – use of air bases and ports, overflights, FBI/CIA cooperation…
Start going after the dhows smuggling Iraq oil. Put a small boat force in the Gulf as well as the carrier groups. Chase a few into Iranian waters. If that does not produce a shooting incident announce that too many are coast hugging on the Iranian side and if Iran doesn’t cooperate to our satisfaction we will go after them and ignore territorial waters.
Get the Congressional resolution we did in OTL but have it name Iraq and Iran. Make clear to Congress and thus the public that we do not specifically seek war with either but that the current situation is unacceptable. Say that we will go to the UN and try diplomacy but must reserve the right to use the sword. Lay out the case for why the sanctions regime in Iraq is not sustainable. Massive cheating. No support at UN beyond veto of US/UK. Lay out WMD case for both. Admit that the data is tentative but ask if we want a mushroom cloud as proof. Remind people of Pearl Harbor and how betting on intentions instead of capabilities can be deadly. Point out that we are using diplomacy and multilateral approaches with Pakistan and NK so the policy is not just mindless jingoism.
Ask Congress for full war powers including ability to keep reserves in as long as needed.
Ask for hearings on posse comitatus – explain to Congress that we are at that stage and that every threat we don’t preempt is going to hit their constituents. IOW run a coherent campaign in Congress and the media to educate instead of ramrodding on a least common denominator as Wolfie admitted they did.
Do the Gulf buildup as we actually did except DO pull out of the Saudi bases – Saudis can run the needed airfields with US ex-military contractors but without the US barracks or US flag. Also do the Turkish vote BEFORE the elections. We may still lose but it is less inept.
Get the December UN resolution but do NOT paper over the differences of opinion with the Euros on burden of proof and that we simply will not accept either Sadam escaping from the sanctions without verification OR continuing the current air war forever while everybody cheats and Sadam harbors Zarquai, Nidal etc. However work into the rap that we regard Iran as an equal danger. Axis of Evil. Anyone who shelters our enemies is our enemy etc.
Keep squeezing Iran. Patrols in their territorial waters. Rumors in the Western media of SOCOM ops inside Iran. Beauty of the SOCOM stories is that you don’t have to actually run the ops and risk US personnel. Just leak a contingency plan to Hersh or some other of the usual suspects and refuse to deny it when published. Instead ‘no comment’ on everything and start a very public mole hunt for ‘leakers’. Iran gets hit by drug and smuggling gangs all the time. Pitched battles up to company scale. How do they KNOW none are SOCOM? LOL. Black propaganda at its best.
Start Farsi language exile radio and TV stations in Herat and Quatar. A Congress in say LA of exiles to form a shadow government in exile. Put on the internet as full a set of the more insane speeches and other data out of Iran both historically and in response to all this. Find exiles who will do accurate translation but who personally have the right political slant. Stick it all up on the web. The more the usual suspects whine about mistranslation the more the public will believe the USG ones. When Congress complains ask for major funding for DIA to train a large contingent of Farsi language experts. Ask waiver of normal security rules so that expats and dual nationals can be used. It will look like the US is training a cadre for the occupation. Nothing anyone can pin down because there is no such smoking gun but again judicious leaks to left media types can start a drumbeat as though this were true. Just pass contingency plans over the right desks in the permanent government and let them think they are leaking.
Get the same sort of documentary people who did the Stolen Honor film private financing for films on Tehran Embassy siege, Jimmy Carter Desert Classic, Beirut bombing, other Iranian Lebanese atrocities. Use Bush 41 and usual GOP Texas money contributors. No smoking gun. It can be an open if not heavily publicized private company doing documentaries to be sold as DVDs and possible TV use from a mixture of patriotic and financial motives – I’ll bet one could find a few Saudi princes who would have LOVED to divert attention from 15 out of 19 to Tehran and the mullahs.
NO TONKIN GULF. Presume everything will leak. So there can be no smoking gun. Every op order must be such that it can show up on the front pages of the WP. However it would not be out of bounds for Rumsfeld and Cheney to insist on reviewing the posting of USN, USCG, USMC officers to the small boats doing the stop and searches in Iranian, Iraqi waters. The excuse is that you want to be sure that officers who could commit the USG flag to war know the rules of engagement. Every word is true. You want a clear case of Iran firing the first shot. However one can select for hard ass hard chargers who while not starting the war won’t give an inch. Given the Iranian naval revolutionary guards you will start to get incidents. You don’t escalate but you don’t give an inch. The first time a US ship takes serious damage you level the port the attackers came from. If not sure, level the possible ports. With modern TV uplinks and embedded reporters [insist that the embeds have acceptable prior military service because of the danger etc] the clashes are going to take place on a live feed on the cable nets.
You probably get a shooting war with Iran before you can pull the trigger with Iraq. If not when the French ask for another 3 months offer 6 but refuse to scale back the naval patrols until the smuggling stops and until you get 100% of the documents and witnesses you’ve asked for…
You might get lucky and get an Iran-Iraq dual war but as we haven’t committed ourselves to occupation, regime change, making 21^st century Scandinavian Social Democracies out of them you can do butcher and bolt, OR find locals who with US air cover will rise OR…it is a more open ended approach emphasizing the things we need – no terrorists, no WMD.

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