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Sadaam – the great revenge

1.       Adhere 200% to the truce terms once you have suppressed the initial risings.  Actually give up ALL WMD [after photocopying the key tech data and burning enough CD’s or whatever was used in 1991 – you hide these someplace REALLY safe for a year or two].  Invite in 2,000 Swiss experts and have them do a meter-by-meter search of the country.  Do 96-hour lockdowns by county with armed incorruptible Euro neutral military providing the cordoning forces.  Hire a couple of thousand ex-Euro police, military, techs to assist in selling off your tanks, jet aircraft, missiles, anything that could pass as offensive weapons.  Sell them to Pakistan on long-term credits.  Do whatever it takes to get the non-WMD sanctions lifted by proving [not just alleging, airtight proof, challenge inspections of the Presidential bedroom at 2 AM, whatever it takes] that in this one area you are being a REALLY good boy.  No tricks.  You actually plan to never have WMD [sort of, see below].

2.       Solve the debts.  Iraq owed everybody.  Establish a fifty-year sinking fund with a portion of the oil revenues used to pay off and a reasonable interest rate, say LIBOR.  Securitize it with a Swiss trust company as fiduciary.  This gives a lot of players a vested interest in keeping the Baath in power till these notes are paid off.  You will need friends in the right places.

3.       Keep wartime austerity.  Only Baath cadres and the security forces get semi decent standards of living.  The rest are kept alive and clothed but little more.  Let the NGO’s scream.  You want to encourage people to leave.  Allow anyone to leave but be QUITE strict on whom you let back in.  Many Iraqis are educated.  They will migrate and provide a Diaspora sending funds back.  Create hard currency stores where their relatives can buy things that are not in the basic rations and will always remain beyond their purchasing power on their local currency incomes.  The idea is both the Diaspora, who will be a lobby in their new countries against invasion however much they hate you, and to build up a giant cash account for other things.

4.       Rebuild the military as a defensive and repressive force.  The idea is to have enough AAA, SAM, ATGM, fortifications, mines, etc. to make your cities expensive to crack.  On the other hand you want to be 300% harmless to your neighbors.  Let the US send U-2’s hourly for all you care.  Establish navigational beacons to be kind to the Anglo planes flying overhead.  Your bad deeds will be elsewhere.

5.       Build up your petrol production.  Pay zero attention to OPEC quotas.  Cheat as badly as the Kuwaitis.  Don’t deny it.  Claim justification because of your poverty from your vastly exaggerated war damage and the vastly exaggerated cost of sanctions, defending yourself and your good works for the Rejectionist and Islamic causes.

6.       Be kind to your poor Palestinian brothers.  Let as many as wish to come become resident workers.  Allow them to become dual nationals if they choose.  Let Arafat set up military bases and training camps in the desert near Jordan and Saudi [nowhere near the cities or populated areas – you are not stupid].  As a whole Palestinians are well educated but need someplace to live.  They are a propaganda tool and a profit source as you can underpay and overtax them with impunity.

7.       Chase the Kurds out of Kirkuk and Mosul.  Keep them away from the oilfields.  Beyond that play politics between their factions but leave them alone.  Let the Turks crack down on their separatism.  Every time the Turks have to play stamp and squash, move the Iraqi checkpoints a few klicks north.  Slow and easy you will gain a buffer zone.

8.       Make Baghdad the new Beirut.  Numbered accounts.  Shell corporations.  Booze, drugs, women, boys – you are sin city plus black finance.  Set up a zone, a new city on the fringes for this.  The UN and US will moan but it is within the range of acceptable activity given the above.

9.       Stomp the Shiia rebels hard.  Bring in a few brigades of Korean technicians to help with the reconstruction – gee you slipped a few tens of K NK spec forces in to get loyal mercs for the butcher work.  US will complain.  UN will make pious noises.  As long as the biggest weapons they have is copters without guns no one is going to actually do anything.

10.  Keep your WMD staff on full payroll helping the Swiss till they pronounce you WMD-less.  When they do find some civilian work for them all at the same salaries.  Once this is established – biotech, specialty chemicals, precision manufacturing, etc. start building branch plants in Pakistan [1994-95 probably].  The idea is that over time Pakistan will set up the full gamut of WMD production.  You will be very careful that Iraqi funds only go for peaceful purposes.  However if you are subsidizing Pakistan’s government and economy to the tune of a few billion a year it should not be hard for your funds to be squeaky clean while their money and some of your and NK’s techs create the full spectrum.  Gee this is about the time that the Pakistani secret service is collaborating with the Saudis to set up the Taliban.  Make sure you have NOTHING to do with that.   Keep careful records to prove it.  You will want these records in a safe place.  Use your Swiss guarantors to do audits of your funds.  Be candid that you have fears some of your people may be moonlighting and do not want the blame.  All very proper for a reformed sinner.  Of course money is fungible.  Make some investments in NK industrial plants for Iraq.  The excuse is that you are starting a pan-Muslim trade block.  You overpay the NK just enough to fund the techs they give the Pakis but NOTHING on paper.  Nothing by electronic means.  Send a son to NK every 91 days for a conference in a shielded bunker.

11.  When the Paki situation blows after Kargil, you have enough influence that Musharef winds up dead instead of President.  The nationalist crazy spooks plus the jihadis take over.  Of course, you are just safeguarding your interests.  The techs now take Paki citizenship.  You let their families go but keep your dual use branch plants.  As you are doing major trade Karachi to Basra and there are huge expat communities on both sides by now it is easy for the final WMD data to be sent out on a Presidential son’s executive jet while he tours the opening of a new factory or some such.  As you never kept these you haven’t given them to Pakistan and NK.  You have just done trade between pariahs the way Chile – Israel – Guatemala – South Africa did in the 70’s. 

In the few weeks before the nuclear and bio 911 that Bin Lauden will pull you use your private accounts to go long oil, short the US exchanges, short the airlines.  This is all explicable as a trading strategy.  You do NOT short the insurance industry.  You do inoculate your entire population for smallpox and anthrax on 9/11 after Arafat claims Israel is about to do biowar on his Iraqi bases.  LOL.  You have done it, rubbed the US’s face in it and are almost untouchable.  Faced with fighting Pakistan and Afghanistan, Iraq gets off with a warning.  You shoot four secret service officials and swear you’ve been duped.  Q.E.D.

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