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Today in Alternate History

This Day in Alternate History Blog

by Pascal Lemaire

As the USA remembered the day it had become independent the intelligence community was on the edge. All indicators showed that the North Korean dictatorship intended to test it’s missile forces, including it’s new Taepodong II intercontinental ballistic missile. Finally the test happened and was immediately vehemently condemned by both the White House and Shinzo Abe, the first counsellor of the Japanese prime minister. While the test of the ICBM had been a failure the USA increased the funding of it’s ballistic missiles defence system while Japan began to look for an efficient system to supplement it’s Patriot Pac-3 and it’s SM-2 missiles.

While the crisis in Asia still caused vigorous diplomatic moves a new situation arose in the Middle East where Israeli soldiers were kidnapped by Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists. In response the Israeli government gave full powers to Tsahal for finding back it’s soldiers, the army beginning an immediate invasion of the Gaza area and of southern Lebanon, using it’s powerful air force as it’s main weapon and causing world wide condemnation.

The INS Hanit, a stealth ship of the Israeli fleet, is damaged by a missile shot from land by the Hezbollah, killing four sailors and causing widespread surprise in face of the use of such system by a terrorist force. The Israeli campaign in Lebanon is stepped up.

Despite involving large forces the Israeli forces are unable to find their soldiers and the country is subject to an intense rocket bombardment by the Hezbollah forces. More than 6000 rockets are fired at Israel, killing dozens of civilians in the northern half of the country. The infantry and armoured forces involved in the invasion of southern Lebanon also suffer high casualties as Hezbollah forces uses sophisticated weapons given by Iran against the Merkava IV tanks of Tsahal. While the government prepares the people for a long war the army begins to reconsider it’s decision not to buy laser defence systems for the protection of it’s main cities.

While Israel is still engaged in Lebanon and the Gaza area the world’s attention shifts once more to the Far East where North Korea proceeds to a new missile test. Unfortunately one of the missiles broke down over Japan and fell on the city of Akita on the west coast, killing 10 civilians among whom were 2 children.

Shinzo Abe, the newly sworn prime minister of Japan, launch in a ferocious speaking against North Korea and it’s missile program and officially present a bill to rescind article 9 of the Japanese constitution regarding the armed forces of Japan and the country’s renunciation of war. The next day the bill is approved by a large majority of both chambers of the Diete. The necessary referendum needed to fully adopt this change of the constitution is planned for the 15th of October.

A naval patrol made of the Japanese light frigate Yubari and the large corvette Isikari clashes with the North Korean Najin light frigate and two Osa missiles boats. The North Korean were the first to shot for they said the Japanese were inside their national waters while in fact the Japanese were more than 50 miles from the coast. Immediately the Japanese ships fire in self defence. In the ensuing battle the North Korean fire a SS-N-2 Styx missile at the Japanese which is answered by a Harpoon missile. While the North Korean missiles is intercepted by the Yubari’s gun fragments of the missile shower the ship and kill 7 Japanese sailors. The North Korean ship on the other hand is unable to stop the Harpoon which hits the ship and sink it immediately. Both side then retreat toward their home port.

The Japanese vote in great number in favour of the constitutional amendment, angered by the recent naval clash. Immediately the armed forces becomes a real Ministry of War and the three branches of service are renamed Imperial Japanese Army ( IJA ), Imperial Japanese Navy ( IJN ) and Imperial Japanese Air force ( IJAf ).

A retaliatory strike on the North Koreans is also ordered.

A squadron of Japanese F-2 fighter planes raids the North Korean naval base of Munch’on, sinking three ships and damaging a further five while destroying the local fuel farms.

On the same day in the Gaza area Tsahal finds back one of it’s soldier and begins to retreat from the area, leaving behind many shattered houses and more importantly an even higher hatred of Israel. But the invasion also shattered the civilian authorities and the territories begins to lapse into a civil war between Hamas and Fatah.

Kim Jong Il, dictator of North Korea, is badly shaken by the Japanese raid. He orders his forces to prepare for an all out assault on South Korea in order to prevent the complete crumbling of his nation. The official reason is to gain airbases in range of Japan to punish them for the raid. Invasion is slated to begin on the 15th of November with the hope that the winter will weaken the South Koreans by grounding their air force. It is also estimated that American commitment in both Afghanistan and Iraq will prevent reinforcements.

News of the impending invasion reach Seoul which does not believe it. Yet the forces along the DMZ are ordered to stay on alert. The civilian air raids shelters are opened and readied for any potential assault.

The North Korean offensive begins with a massive artillery barrage which causes massive damages to Seoul. The large but mostly obsolete North Korean aviation also begins to strike border units while missiles are shoot all over South Korea. Submarines attempt to land commandos in the South Korean rear but most are intercepted before reaching the coast. Some 500 000 men, 1200 planes , 8000 artillery guns and 2000 tanks were thrown at the South Korean and US forces stationed on the DMZ.

The North Korean army, while made up of mostly outdated equipment, did make good progress in the first days of the war, albeit with horrendous casualties. Reinforcements are already on the move to support the first line units. The southern force have no real reserves available but the combinations of a powerful airforce and better land technology allows them to keep their loss acceptable, even if they have to retreat in many sectors. The USA, stretched thin by it’s other commitments, can only send more planes to the theatre while three aircraft carriers are also sent to the area. The Bush government asks Japan for the authorisation to mount combat operations from it’s bases on Japanese soil, which Shinzo Abe agree. This prompt an immediate North Korean missile strike on Japan, mostly on the city of Kanazawa. This prompt the Diet to declare war on North Korea. Immediately the Japanese ready an expeditionary land force while launching it’s aviation against the eastern ports of it’s enemy. South Korea and Japan agree to force a naval blockade on the North Korean, the South Korean taking responsibility for the western side of the peninsula while the Japanese seal the eastern shore.

The allied air forces have completely annihilated North Korea’s air force and rule the sky, striking at will everywhere in North Korea while suffering little losses from the outdated SAM systems. On the ground the enemy’s offensive has bogged down after some 50km and in some areas the North Koreans have even been repulsed and some allied forces made small progress on enemy territory. The almost complete absence of US ground forces is largely compensated by the fierce Japanese soldiers of the Korean Expeditionary Force.

In Beijing worried communist leaders looked with an increasing dread at the situation in Korea. An united Korea would be a threat to them, especially with the South’s high technology and the small ( to Chinese view ) distance between their capital and the border. Thus they decided to launch the plan Double Dragon : beside sending forces to the help of their communist brothers of Korea they would use the opportunity to launch an invasion of Taiwan.

At the same time in Israel the firsts five THEL laser guns were installed in the country near the biggest cities in order to protect them from small rockets and artillery rounds.

The planned Chinese offensive was launched on the 15th as planned. Twelve divisions ( some 150 000 men ) are sent to North Korea with ample air support, including numerous J-11 fighters, licensed build copies of the Russian Su-27. The airspace began most contested as both sides threw fighters against fighters, allowing the Chinese to move their forces to the frontlines without suffering too much casualties. Their advanced T-96 tanks proved to be a match for the Japanese T-90 and South Korean K1A1. The allied, fearful of the Chinese, stopped all offensives and fell back on the most defensive positions available before digging in and waiting for the air battle to resolve. Failure in the air battle would mean certain defeat.

This battle saw the first operational use of the F-22 Lightning II US fighter which showed itself to be a poor dog fighter as had been warned by some analysts. The more manoeuvrable J-11 was a better close fighting unit but only when it could get close enough to the F-22, which was not very often.

Further south the Chinese launched the second part of Double Dragon, the invasion of Taiwan. After a mass conventional missiles strike on the islands the Chinese air force attempted to protect an airborne force tasked with the capture of a beachhead for the marines. Unfortunately for them the Taiwanese air defence system had survived the missile strike almost intact, as had their air force. The Chinese were thus met by angry pilots flying Mirage 2000 and F-CK Ching Kuo fighters which decimated the Chinese first wave, those few planes who got through being destroyed by the Patriot missiles of the air defence system. In order to gain some time the Taiwanese air force then launched a large air strike against the Chinese amphibious fleet, using it’s F-16 and Hsiung Feng II missiles to devastate the troop ships, not without suffering high casualties.

The Chinese fleet responded by beginning a blockade of the island which called for help and was heard by Japan, South Korea and the USA who all dispatched strong naval forces to the area, including two US carrier.

But the US Navy was beginning to feel really stretched thin because Double Dragon held still another part in it’s plan. The Chinese leadership knew well that the current situation would certainly provoke US intervention and that it’s air force would be unable to take on four or five aircraft carriers. Thus it had made pressures on it’s allies Iran to take action. In fact the Iranian wanted to strike at the USA for quite some time and only looked for the most appropriate time to do so, and they thought the time had come. With 3 aircraft carriers near Korea, two more going to Taiwan, one on station in the Indian Ocean for Afghanistan support operations it was more than half of the available US carrier fleet that was occupied elsewhere.

The Iranian thus began operation God’s Will, the closing of the Hormuz straight. The first move was realised by the Kilo class submarines which laid mines across the straight while silkworm missiles batteries were put in place all along the coast. The world learned of the Iranian trick only when a very large crude carrier ( VLCC ) blew in the midst of the straight. Immediately president Bush declared war on Iran without even consulting his top advisers. The US military, surprised, had to hastily prepare a plan to re-organise it’s forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan, knowing that the US forces in Iraq did not have much supplies and that their main logistical road had been cut...

Russia, fearful of the recent developments, decided to redeploy part of it’s forces on the Chinese and Caucasian borders, including numerous units of it’s air force. The move was badly perceived by the Caucasian Muslim nations who begins to mobilise and enter negotiations with Iran or Turkey about military alliances.

The Europeans nations begins to be increasingly concerned while the world’s economy is threatened and access to the Middle East oil is cut.

In Damascus a secret high level meeting between various leaders of the Arab world takes place. They decide they do not have much to fear from Iran for the time being but that the occasion is perfect for a strike on bogged down Israel, still engaged in southern Lebanon et seeing no end to it’s troubles there. Troops from Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and the United Emirates begins to be moved toward Israel, including large amounts of heavy armour including Challenger I, Challenger II, M1A2 and Leclerc tanks.

The battle for the Korean Airspace sees a definite allied victory as the last Chinese J-11 are called back to protect Beijing after suffering horrendous loss to the better trained and better equipped Korean, Japanese et US air forces. But those have also suffered a lot in the fighting, with some 30% of their planes out of commission and 22% of their pilots dead or captured by the enemies. On the ground the allied forces are able to stop the Chinese forces thanks to massive close air support operations led by the powerful A-10 planes but the units are too weak to launch an offensive to take advantage of this, especially since the enemy’s artillery is still very powerful and able to destroy anything moving in the open. US Marines reinforcements are on the way but might be sent to Iran instead.

For the North Korean and their Chinese allies the lack of enemy forces in the area is a good news in the midst of the disaster because this means North Korea still exists. But the North Korean populations begins to revolt as news of the casualties begins to reach the civilian population. In numerous villages officials are shoot by the peoples, making it necessary for Kim Jong Il to send army units to crush the revolts at a time when every army unit is needed on the front.

In Taiwan the situation is another military disaster for Beijing despite some great victories against the US Navy. Indeed the Chinese air units in the area have suffered 68% casualties while attempting to destroy Taiwan air defence network and air force and have finally been put out of action by huge Tomahawk cruise missiles strikes launched from two converted Ohio class submarines. The cream of the Chinese airborne assault units is dead, as is most of it’s surface fleet. The submarine branch of the PLA-N has also suffered mightily to the allied but has also scored the biggest Chinese victory yet when two Kilo class submarine ambush the USS Nimitz carrier battle group and sink the aircraft carried, the USS Anzio cruiser and the USS Barry destroyer before being sunk too. Some unconfirmed reports speak of the use of a tactical nuclear warhead by the Chinese to sink the Nimitz, but many thinks that those reports are only American propaganda born from the fact the US admirals can’t accept the fact that one of their carrier has been lost to enemy action and that some 7000 thousand sailors have killed by about one hundred Chinese sailors...

The US Navy suffers further damages when two ships, a frigate and a destroyer of the Hormuz Force, name given to the task force built around two Avenger mine countermeasure ships tasked with the clearing of the straight, were fired upon by Silkworm missiles that had escaped bombing raids. The USS Ford would eventually sink five hours after being hit, it’s crew having been evacuated. On the ground the American offensive in Iran was going badly with massive human wave attacks on the lead units and heavy guerrilla attacks on the rear units, including attacks by iraki Shiia on the invasion’s logistical hub of Basra that cost the British forces in the sector many casualties. The attack coming from Afghanistan was going a bit better but the land was very bad and it was mostly a war being led by the special forces to prevent Iranian invasion of the country rather than a full scale attack, especially since the Talibans had stepped up their attacks against the coalition forces in the area.

Further west the Muslim Alliance as the Saudi led force has become to be known launch it’s planned attack on Israel. Covered by the powerful Saudi and Egyptian air forces massive armoured formations throw themselves against Tsahal. But the IDF’s air force, with it’s equal equipment and better training, is able to limit the damages caused by the Alliance’s planes and counter attack by launching raids deep in enemy territory while on the ground the poor logistic of the Muslim invasion soon shows with tanks running out of gas and becoming easy target for the veteran Merkava crews whose tanks proves to be more survivable than the M1A2 and Challenger tanks. Only the Emirate’s Leclerc shows themselves to be a match for the Israeli tank but there the crew’s lack of training cause their demise. Soon Israel sends it’s southern force deep in the Sinai and orders infantry units to "clean" the Gaza area. This would in fact proves to be a real genocide for Israel is decided to destroy once for all this threat to it’s security. Using artillery, fuel explosive bombs and infantry the begin to kill and destroy everything they see. The Palestinian peoples does it’s best to fight back, to no avail. Hezbollah tries to helps it’s Hamas allies by launching an offensive of it’s own in Lebanon but this only prompt Tsahal to cross the Litani river which until then had been the northern limit of it’s invasion. On the eastern front the Israeli decides to push for Damascus and to capture Amman in Jordan. It is clearly the final battle between the Jews and the Muslims for control of the Holy Lands. In answer Syria launches Scud missiles with chemical warheads on Israel’s main cities, many of them being intercepted by the Arrow ballistic missiles defenses and THEL laser guns but 6 missiles still falls on Tel Haviv, Haifa and Netania, killing hundreds of peoples with VX poison gas. In answer Israel blows up the mosque Al Aqsa on the Temple Mount.

The increased tensions prompt a Turkish mobilisation and deployment of forces on the Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian borders where the army decides to perform a total cleanup of the area by killing all the Kurds still living in the area. In a genocide reminiscent of the Armenian genocide villages are burned to the ground and many flees to Iraq or Iran. The lands are then given to colons coming from Istanbul and Ankara. These actions goes almost unnoticed in a world that looks mostly toward Israel and Korea but the European Union still notices it and suspend all negotiations with Turkey, closes it’s borders and expel all the Turks from it’s lands, a move that leads to riots in Brussels and in Germany were dozens are killed.

The European Union is most disturbed by those news and decides to mobilise forces with land units sent to Bulgaria and Greece while a carrier battle group built around the French De Gaulle CVN is formed in Toulon and a large amphibious assault group built around the Spanish Principe de Asturias light carrier. Airborne units are also being prepared for action in Italy and weapons production in all of Europe is increased, mainly the aircraft and helicopter factories which accelerate the production rhythm of Eurofighter and Rafale fighters and PAH-2 Tiger helicopters while the work on the ships under construction is accelerated. In many capitals there is a lot of fear about the units deployed in Afghanistan which are very hard to supply due to the global tension.

To Part 2

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