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Philip II of Macedon was famously assassinated at the wedding of his daughter, Cleopatra, to his brother-in-law, Alexander of Molossia. His assassin, a bodyguard (somatphylax) named Pausanias, was killed, perhaps accidentally, by Leonnatus; his son, Alexander, was hailed as king by Alexander of Lyncestis, and the rest, as they say, is history.

Philip was certainly assassinated at the bequest of a conspiracy, although the exact membership of that conspiracy is uncertain. The Athenian politician Demosthenes, and the just-acceeded Great King, Darius III, were almost certainly members (although the Persian role must have established by Darius’ predecessor Arses, or by his infamous eunuch vizier, Bagoas). Olympias, the disgraced Epirote wife of Philip (and mother of Alexander), was probably a member, as were high-ranking Macedonian noblemen, such as Attalus, Philip’s commander in Asia and his father-in-law, and Parmenion, his right-hand man and boon companion. Alexander was probably not a member of the conspiracy; it has been suggested that another somatophylax, Attalus (not to be confused with the general), was deputed to kill Alexander, but funked when Philip rearranged the wedding procession at the last moment.

Let us suppose that Pausanias also blows his mission. Philip remains alive, his daughter and his brother-in-law are married, and exeunt omnes. What then?

Philip is perhaps one of the most underrated kings in history, being overshadowed by his undeniably brilliant son, Alexander III (known in OTL as “the Great”). The military system that Alexander used to such in his conquest of the Persian Empire, however, was entirely Philip’s invention, and if we take into account the positions from which they started, Philip used it at least as well, if not better, than Alexander.

Early, erroneous reports of Pausanias’ success will undoubtedly spread (Demosthenes is said to have publicly celebrated Philip’s assassination before even rumor could have reached him), which reports will shortly thereafter be disspelled by Philip’s coming down into Greece with an army. Philip would cross into Asia Minor, join up with Attalus, and begin the war with Persia.

I postulate that, up to a certain point, the war would have gone much as it would have in OTL. The Greek mercenary general, Memnon, would have advised a “scorched earth” strategy of defense, which the Anatolian satraps would have refused to implement. Philip would have won several minor battles in Asia Minor, and a major one, against Darius himself, on the Cilician-Syrian border. And then...

After Alexander defeated him at Issus in OTL, Darius is said to have offered him his daughter, 10,000 talents (about 300 tons!) of gold, and all Persian territory west of the Euphrates. Alexander refused the offer, saying that he already had all these things, and continued the war. Philip, however, was not a dashing young romantic like his son, but a shrewd and experienced politician (albeit with a sentimental philhellenism that he indulged whenever the Greeks weren’t actually in arms against him). I posit that he would have accepted the offer.

Philip must spend a couple of years organizing his new empire. Asia Minor (except the Greek cities of the coast, which are nominally made independent), Palestine, and Egypt are placed under direct Macedonian rule. Cilicia, Cappadocia, and Syria, however, are made a sub-kingdom under Alexander. The bad blood between Philip and Alexander has been much exaggerated by historians. However, the marriages of Philip to Attalus’ daughter Eurydice, and of Cleopatra to Alexander of Molossia, and the failed marriage of Alexander and his half-brother Arrhidaeus to the daughter of Pixodorus, subject king of Caria, undoubtedly rankled. Philip, by this deed, gets Alexander out of Macedon (an action which, in his opinion, could only have prolonged both their lives), makes a grand public gesture of trust in him (which, given Alexander’s character, he would have responded to with extravagant loyalty), and gets some use out of him (Alexander’s sub-kingdom is on the border with Persia; in case Darius or his successors attack, the first blow will fall on Alexander). Philip then heads back to Pella, the seat of the Macedonian court, to spend his final years in luxury.

His desires are disappointed. In OTL, Philip’s brother-and-son-in-law, Alexander of Molossia, crossed to southern Italy, ostensibly called by the Italiotes (descendants of the Greek colonists) to defend them from the aggressions of Carthage, and was assassinated by them there in 330. The changes from any PoD would take some time of propagate, so I am not ashamed to postulate that the sequence of events that led up to Alexander’s assassination would have remained the same. What changes is the sequel.

In OTL, Alexander of Molossia’s nephew/brother-in-law is off campaigning in Iran; the long-time regent of Macedon, Antipater, has neither cause nor desire to do anything about it. Philip, however, is impelled by Greek notions of honor to publicly avenge A of M, and to pick up the task that has fallen from his hands; besides, he is probably not averse per se to adding another province to Macedon, however reluctant he is to do so himself. Prying his tired old bones out of Pella, therefore, he crosses to Italy, and spends the last four years of his life providing to the Italiotes a lesson in what it means in to piss off the Great King of Macedon by killing one of his relatives against his will.

In 324, Philip, worn out by age, campaigning, and wounds suffered in previous campaigns, dies. The alternatives to his son, Alexander, are no more realistic than in OTL; plus, in this timeline, Alexander has had nearly a decade’s seasoning as sub-king of the Marches. He is in his early thirties, not as rash, and his notorious causeless longing (pothos) has been tempered and transmuted to a specific goal – to unite the Hellenes under a single crown.

First, of course, he must finish what his father had begun. His sub-kingdom now formally united to Macedon, he goes to Pella (with several regiments of his “Successor” cavalry, Asians recruited by his officers and trained in Macedonian cavalry tactics), is hailed as king, and himself crosses into Italy. What his father could not finish because of ill-health, he does – after convincing the Italiotes that, yes, he really does mean business and, no, it is not a good idea to offer open opposition, he crosses to Sicily and proceeds to whomp the poo out of Carthage, ancient enemy of the western Greeks.

The Carthaginians are by no means fools. Although they might resist for years or even decades, Carthage will eventually fall to Alexander, and the fate of the city will be the worse the more vigorously that they resist (see Alexander’s treatment of Tyre in OTL). A treaty is made in 318: Carthage becomes a subject ally of Macedon, formally acknowledging the sovereignity of the Great King, accepting a Macedonian resident (tamios), paying a modest tribute, and furnishing Alexander with troops, particularly its fleet and elephant cavalry. Alexander, for his part, is relieved at not having to conduct a prolonged Carthaginian War, and has no need, psychological or otherwise, to see Carthage destroyed. The deal is struck.

This frees Alexander for what is probably the most pleasurable campaign of his reign: the Arabian Expedition. Part pleasure cruise, part exploratory voyage (like the Lewis and Clark Expedition), and only incidentally a campaign of conquest, Alexander sets off from Egypt, rounds the Arabian peninsula (annexing the Himyarite kingdom in Yemen in the process), and sails ceremoniously into the Shatt-al-Arab, where he is greeted equally ceremoniously by his in-law, the newly acceeded Artaxerxes IV of Persia. Potential trouble between them (Alexander does rule the western half of the old Achaemenid empire, which Artaxerxes would like back) is averted by other concerns; Artaxerxes must turn eastward to deal with the rising Chandragupta Maurya, whilst Alexander is determined to save the Hellenes from the barbarians, whether they wish it or not.

Alexander leads two expeditions against the Scythians. Although the Scythians repeat the tactics that they used against Darius I, Alexander is a better general, and has better engineers and infantry. Gradually, he pushes a line of mutually-supporting fortifications up the western coast of the Euxine. Paerisades , tyrant-king of the Cimmerian Bosporus, accepts Alexander as his overlord, to save himself by both Macedonian and Scythian armies; Alexander effectively (although not formally) annexes the Bosporian territories around Lake Maeotis, and then marches down the eastern coast of the Euxine, creating a satrapy of Colchis out of the conquered territories.

Having secured (for the time being) the east, Alexander turns his attention to the west. Unfortunately, his first act stores up trouble for generations to come: he seizes the island of Corsica, nominally ruled by Carthage, to use as a staging base for his western campaigns. Carthage never loved Alexander or the Greeks, but was reconciling itself to the status of subject ally (helped by the fact that Alexander was far away, and Carthage had a great deal of autonomy). Now, anti-Macedonian sentiment is strengthened in the Punic city; individual Carthaginians will be openly hostile to Macedon in the future, and Macedon will come to rue that.

All of that is in the future, however. For the moment, the Carthaginian government is no more sullen and unco-operative than it ever was. Pausing to make a treaty with the dominant Italian city of Rome (Rome is to have a free hand in Italy outside of the Macedonian satrapy of Great Greece; Rome is opened as a market for Macedon and Carthage, and Carthage, Syracuse, and Rhegion are opened to Rome and its confederates), Alexander invades southern Gaul to “assist” the city of Massilia; the surrounding area is organized as the satrapy of Calleia.

It is now about 300 BCE. The Macedonian Empire is now at the height of its power and extent. Now, however, it begins to slide from the offense to the defense.

The Italiotes had suffered for centuries by raids and even conquests (e.g., Capua) by the Italian tribes. The Lucanians begin a series of attacks on the satrapy of Great Greece and this, and Alexander is distracted from his conquest of Gaul by this. The Macedonian army, however, is peculiarly unsuited to campaigning in the Italian mountains (the Romans had switched from a pseudo-Greek phalanx to the archaic legion in the previous decades for this reason). Moreover, the more effectively Alexander can carry the war back into the Lucanian hills, the better a Roman alliance – even one with Rome as acknowledged top dog -- looks to the Lucanans. The situation is complicated by the rebellion of a mercenary garrison in Messene; they seize the city and rule as the Aretidai military aristocracy for nearly a quarter of a century, seriously weakening the links between Macedon, Sicily, and Carthage.

Matters come to a head in 282 BCE. Rome, now allied with the Lucanian tribes, takes its stand on the treaty of 304, which forbade Macedonian interference in Rome’s endeavors in Italy (that Lucania was not then part of the Roman network of alliances is conveniently overlooked by Rome). Alexander, for his part, is not disposed to overlook fifteen years of hard and largely profitless fighting on behalf of his subjects. The situation flares into open war.

Alexander is still Alexander, although now over sixty years old. The Macedonian army in Italy is better suited to the fight than it was twenty years ago. The Romans are neither cowards nor fools, however. And excrement occurs; the moving butterfly flaps and, having flapped, flits on. At the battle of Myskelion in 280 BCE, Alexander, at the head of his Successors, charges a little too far, intercepts a pilum, and is killed. The demoralized Macedonian army retreats, albeit largely intact and in good order.

The Danubian Celts are about to invade the Balkans. The Romans are re-organizing and refitting for the next battle. The Carthaginians are wondering if this would be a good time to repudiate their allegiance. Alexander’s successor is about to experience interesting times.

Timeline

382 BCE: Philip (later Philip II “the Great”) born.

359: Philip’s elder brother, Perdiccas III, is killed in battle against the Illyrians. Perdiccas’ infant son, Amyntas IV, nominally becomes king, with Philip regent. Philip soon is crowned king, and pushes his nephew aside.

356: Philip’s son, Alexander III “the Restless”, born.

352-336: Philip builds up his reputation and power in Greece, Thrace, Epirus.

336: Philip dispatches an army under Parmenion to Asia Minor.

Philip famously escapes death when his bodyguard (somatophylax) Pausanias attempts to assasinate him at the wedding of Philip’s daughter, Cleopatra, to her uncle Alexander of Molossia. Pausanias is killed by another somatophylax, Attalus. The subsequent trials before the Macedonian Assembly acquit Alexander and Amyntas; however the Lyncestids (a collateral royal line) are executed [1].

Hellenic Revolt. An early, incorrect report that Pausanias was successful causes revolt in Central Greece. Philip puts down the revolt.

335: Philip crosses to Asia. The Greek mercenary general Memnon advises a “scorched earth” strategy, but the Persian satraps of Asia Minor refuse the advice and retreat before Philip.

334: Having faced no worse than harassment from irregular forces and native partisans in his march through Caria and Cilicia, Philip finally faces the might of Persia under Darius III (r. 336-316) at Myriandrus. Darius is completely defeated. After Myriandrus, Darius offers Philip all Persian territories west of the Euphrates, 10,000 talents of silver, and the hand of his daughter in marriage. This said to have caused the famous (but probably apocryphal) exchange between Philip and Parmenion:

Parmenion: I’d accept, were I Philip.

Philip: I’m not Parmenion, but I’ll accept anyway.

Aside from moving Darius’ daughter one generation down, to Alexander, the offer is accepted.

334-332: Philip organizes his new empire. Asia Minor (except the nominally free Greek cities and the Alexandrine territories), Palestine, and Egypt are put under direct Macedonian rule. Syria, Cilicia, and Cappadocia are given to Alexander, with the title of king (basileus) but subject to Philip (as basileus megistes) as a buffer between Persia and Great Macedonia. Afterwards, Philip returns to Pella.

332: Birth of Alexander’s eldest son, Archelaus.

331: Megalopolitan War. Agis III attempts to lead a coalition against Macedonia, but is routed and killed by Philip’s superior forces. Alexander refers to it as “a battle of mice”; Philip, upon hearing this, retorts: “In Asia, my son faces women, but here, we face men”[2].

330: Philip’s brother-and-son-in-law, Alexander of Molossia, is assassinated by Italiotes (Greek colonists of Italy) while ostensibly defending them from aggression by Italic tribes.

329-325: Italian expedition, launched on the pretext of avenging Alexander’s death. Philip successfully seizes Taras (Tarentum, Otranto) as a base, and conquers the Italian coast from Messene to Bergamo (the “spur” on the Italian boot). Ill-health prevents him from progressing to Sicily.

324: Death of Philip; accession of Alexander.

324-280 Alexander III “the Restless”.

324: Formal reunion of the Alexandrine kingdom with Great Macedonia.

Revolt in southern Italy on the news of Philip's death. Alexander pacifies the area, famously destroying Taras (reputed to be in origin a colony of Sparta) and crosses into Sicily.

324-318: Carthaginian War. Carthage finally surrenders on terms. It surrenders all territory in Sicily except the port of Lilubaion; a Macedonian resident (tamios) is installed at Carthage; the city agrees to submit to the Great King's laws in certain areas (preserving much local autonomy, however), and to pay a small tribute (25 talents of gold per year).

317-316: Arabian Expedition. Alexander sails around Arabia; on the way he conquers the Himyarite kingdom (northern Yemen) and the coasts north and east to Bahrein. Like many of his conquests, the Arab satrapy degenerates into a few garrisoned outposts in the next few decades. Alexander sails his fleet into the mouth of the Shatt al-Arab, and is greeted ceremoniously by his newly acceded brother-in-law, Artaxerxes IV (r. 316-266). Potential conflict between then is negated by Artaxerxes' having to defend eastern Iran from Chandragupta Maurya, whilst Alexander's attention is drawn westwards, by his desire to "unite the Hellenes under one crown"

315-314: First Scythian expedition. Alexander quiets unrest in northern Thrace (largely by being there) and crosses the Ister (Danube) to "rescue the Hellenes from the Scythians". The Scythians retreat before his army, using a combination of hit-and-run harassment and scorched-strategy to attempt to defeat him. Alexander’s infantry, however, is used with effect both in the field and in garrisoning mutually-supporting strongpoints. The Scythian Province is pushed along the Black Sea coast from the mouth of the Ister to Olvia.

313-309: Second Scythian expedition. King Paerisades I of Bospor (the southeastern, Greek-settled part of Crimea) submits to Alexander, both to keep his throne and to gain defenses from Scythian attacks. Alexander sails to Panticapaeum (the capital of Bospor) and marches up the eastern coast of Lake Maeotis to the mouth of the Tanais (Don). Although this area was nominally part of the kingdom of Bospor, and Alexander never made any formal declaration of its annexation, it received Macedonian garrisons and a Macedonian satrap who took orders from Pella, not from Panticapaeum. Alexander then turned southeast and conquered Albania and Georgia, organizing them as the satrapy of Colchis. During this campaign, Paerisades dies; the satrap of East Scythia, Arrybas, supports Eumelus as his successor, a decision later confirmed by Alexander.

306: Alexander seized Corsica, nominally in the Carthaginian sphere of influence, although no attempt at colonization or pacification had been made. This increased anti-Macedonian sentiment at Carthage.

304: Treaty with Rome.

304-302: Alexander campaigns in southern Gaul, annexing part of the Provençal coast (satrapy of Calleia).

302-289: Lucanian incursions into the Macedonian satrapy of Great Greece (southern Italy). Alexander fights them, but to little effect.

289-265: Messene seized by and under the rule of its mercenary garrison.

282-275: First Roman War. The Macedonians are the nominal victors in three battles, but find that the Roman confederacy and the legionary organization are difficult opponents. The war is complicated by the death of Alexander and the incursion of the Celts in eastern Europe. In the end, Archelaus withdraws from the Vergamo region; the satrapy of Sicily is dissolved and handed over to Carthage.

280: Alexander dies in battle against the Romans; accession of his son Archelaus II.

[1] In OTL, of course, the assassination of Philip was successful. Pausanias was killed, apparently accidentally, by Leonnatus, another of Philip’s bodyguards. Attalus acted suspiciously, however; he may have been tasked to kill Alexander, and refrained from acting when Philip changed the order of the wedding processing at the last moment. Two of the Lyncestids, Arrabaios and Heromenes, were executed; the third, Alexander, escaped (possibly because he was the first to hail Alexander son of Philip as king).

[2] Actually, the latter was said by Alexander’s viceroy, Antipater, who did face and defeat Agis. Alexander did make the disparaging remark.

Comment from Mike Wheelan on Google+ I like this but with one small note. The Macedonian Army once it reached India was a mismatched alloy of fighting units, yet was held together and had the ability to adapt very swiftly. I think that the Macedonians may have adapted too in Italy and adopted the primitive legion organisation whilst including their heavy pikemen as a lynch pin for the army to revolve around.

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The End

Philip the Great, Emperor of Great Macedonia