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Today in Alternate History
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The
Beginnings of World War 1 (1915)
By David Atwell, dmatwell@nobbys.net.au
(Crises of 1914 Part II)
March the First, 1915, would go down in history as the date which
brought on the conflict, later to be called, the Great War. The
Great War had, in fact, almost commenced in Europe in the previous
year, but frantic attempts of diplomacy, wise decisions by German
generals, not to mention convenient disobedience of orders, had
isolated the Austro-Serbian war to merely Serbian territory. The
European nations, except for France, were satisfied with their
various diplomatic achievements & believed that a European war had
been diverted. They were wrong.
The beginning of 1915 indicated no hint whatsoever in how the year
would end. The Austro-Serbian war had become quiet after the
Christmas battles, & apart from a few border skirmishes, little
activity took place during the winter of the New Year period.
Although negotiations took place between the two combatants, none of
the attempts were serious. Instead, both sides had spent the time
readying their respective armies for spring campaigns.
The Austrians trained & recruited more troops as did the Serbians.
Meanwhile, the Russians were able to smuggle armaments to the Serbs.
The Austrians, on the other hand, had to fend for themselves. Their
allies, the Germans, were still fuming over the fact that the
Austrians had gotten involved in a conflict without any
consideration as to their part. Furthermore, a militant Austria, one
trying to gain in power & territory via conquest, was not ideally
what Germany wanted. Within living memory, both empires were once at
war as Prussia went about alienating Austria while uniting the rest
of Germany. The last thing the German government thus wanted was a
powerful Austria; one which was capable of undoing all of Prussia's
hard work.
Yet this somewhat international balancing act would suddenly change
due to the actions of a small British Dominion in the South Pacific.
Australia, a small country by population standards, had only
recently become a nation in 1901. Its existence up to that date, as
an outpost of the British Empire, had only come about as a
convenient penal colony in 1788. Prior to that, it was a continent
which was owned by the Aboriginals, whose culture & society had
little in common with that of Europe. Yet, within 140 years, this
country's actions would hasten on the Great War.
The island of New Guinea, located north of Australia, had seen
little European activity over the years. As Australia was taken by
the British & later developed, nearly one hundred years would go by
before anyone took any interest in New Guinea. But spurred on by
empire building, this would soon change.
Accompanying empire building, Australians have long harboured a
tradition of invasion paranoia, one which their governments over the
years had in abundance. From the beginning, in 1788, it was feared
that the French would invade. Next came the Chinese. Then the
Russians. After the American Civil War, it was feared that the
Americans, now employing a powerful navy & army, would try to
conquer Australia as pay-back to the British by establishing a
Untied States of Australia. After no American invasion took place, &
with the Dutch now firmly established throughout the Indonesian
Archipelago, naturally the Dutch were then feared. Next in line,
with the reforms delivering the fruits from modernisation & European
influence (especially British), Japan was seen as the next potential
invader & became known as the "yellow peril". Finally, with the
Germans sniffing around the Asia-Pacific region, the Germans
likewise joined this list of paranoid delusions.
So when the Dutch began taking an interest in the western half of
New Guinea &, if that was not bad enough, the Germans began taking
an interest in the eastern half not long afterwards, for the
northern Australian colony of Queensland, this was far too much.
Fearing a future German or Dutch invasion, the Governor of
Queensland Henry Chester, in April 1883, announced that the eastern
half of New Guinea was now part of Queensland. The decision, taken
without any arrangements with the British, was cheered on by
Australians, but was greatly frowned upon by Westminster. The
Australian colonies were not even 100 years old & already they had
commenced empire building themselves. To everyone it was politics.
To the Australians it meant that they were coming of age. To the
British it meant their authority was being challenged by a small
colony. Furthermore, there were possible international repercussions
from Europe or America.
By July 1883 the British ordered the Queenslanders out of the
island. At first the Queensland government refused, but after
lengthy negotiations, the British agreed that for Queensland's
withdrawal, Britain would declare New Guinea as a protectorate. A
disgruntled Queensland government was forced to accept this
situation as their original reason for annexation, that being a
German takeover, was negated by the promised British presence.
Unfortunately for the Queenslanders, the Germans more or less
ignored the British protectorate & in September of 1883 took
possession of the northern coast of New Guinea. The Queenslanders
would never trust the British in New Guinea again & this event would
also help to hasten on the Australian Commonwealth & nationhood. The
immediate result, however, was the return of Queensland's small army
to the southern coastline of New Guinea. Well established in the
south by 1889, the Queensland government refused all requests by the
British to withdrawal, citing that the Germans refused to leave the
north. Thus the battlelines were set for the future.
Upon Australia becoming a nation in 1901, the paranoia of the past
would govern Australia's foreign policy up until 1915. Further
evidence of German expansion by military conquest came in the form
of the German Pacific Naval squadron being permanently stationed in
the South Pacific. Although it was nothing in the overall scheme of
things, it was enough for the Australian government to order the
latest naval vessels from Britain. By 1913, Australia had assembled
the most powerful fleet, except for the Japanese, in the region
which included a battle cruiser as well as several cruisers &
destroyers.
The decision in 1915, by Australia's Prime Minister Billy Hughes, to
invade German New Guinea also had other factors. Coupled with the
need for a powerful modern navy were improvements in the army. This
was built upon the great experience of Australia's army during the
Boer War. This inturn, fuelled the paranoia in Australia, as
Germany, under Kaiser Wilhelm II, had expressed his full support for
the Boers. If war was ever to start, as a result of the Boer War
between Britain & Germany, Australia would discover very quickly
that it was on the front lines by default.
Another aspect to Australia's consideration, one that has been much
overlooked, was trade. Australia wanted the trade of the South
Pacific to itself. The only consideration about sharing the trade
within the region was given to New Zealand: another British dominion
in the South Pacific & one thought to be a de facto state of the
Australian Commonwealth. However, far more important than trade was
gold. Not only was it discovered in abundance in Australia/British
New Guinea, but it was also discovered in German New Guinea.
Thus for a whole range of reasons, Prime Minister Hughes, confident
that the military forces would defeat the Germans, ordered them to
invade German New Guinea on 1 March 1915. The invasion was extremely
successful. Somewhat ridiculously, no one in Australia, however,
believed that Germany would go to war over the issue. Noting that
Germany had backed down the previous year, in a major way, during
the crises in Europe over bigger events, the Australian government
wrongly believed that Germany would take even less interest in
losing a small colony on the other side of the world.
The Germans, naturally, were outraged. They immediately demanded to
the British that their colonials evacuate German New Guinea & pay
reparations. Britain too was furious at the Australians & quietly
demanded that they return the territory invaded back to its rightful
owners. This the Australians refused & citied the usual paranoia
about an beating back a mythical immediate German invasion of
Australia/British New Guinea. The Germans, after noting the ominous
silence on behalf of the British, soon raised the spectre of war.
Once again Europe was in crisis. As the Austro-Serbia conflict now
disappeared to the sidelines, now it appeared that Britain & Germany
were going head to head. The French, noting a chance to gain at the
expense of the Germans immediately threw their lot in with the
British. Although no defence treaty per se existed between Britain &
France, this was soon ratified. As the deadline for the Australian
withdrawal drew close, the Royal Navy Grand Fleet went to sea. In
response so too did the German High Seas Fleet.
In a similar fashion, the French army mobilised upon hearing the
news that the High Seas Fleet had sortied. Naturally the Germans
quickly responded. It the relief of Germany, but to the annoyance of
France, Russia declared neutrality over these events. Russia was
more interested in seeing Germany & the others distracted while she
inturn watched the Austro-Serbian war. If & when the moment raised,
then Russia would act by joining the Serbs. Not only would this
catch Austria off balance, ensuring territorial gain at the expense
of the Austrians, but it would mean that Russia would live up to its
image of defender of Slavic Peoples.
But before anything eventful took place in Europe, it was the
Australians who once again got involved. As troop ships were being
convoyed by the Royal Australian Navy, in order to invade other
German colonies on islands to the north of New Guinea, the German
cruiser Emden deliberately manoeuvred into a threatening position
trying to halt the invasion force. This was seen as an act of war on
behalf of the Royal Australian Navy ships & HMAS Sydney, several
times more powerful than the Emden, gave battle sinking the German
ship. News of the naval encounter spread rapidly around the world.
So do did the German response - the declaration of war on 30 March
1915.
Battle almost commenced at once in Europe. Although nothing large at
first, the Royal Navy & the German Navy skirmished throughout the
North Sea. Both sides, though, could sense a major sea battle would
soon take place. They were not to be disappointed. On 31 May 1916,
the largest sea battle ever to take place in history did so at
Jutland. Even though the Royal Navy lost more ships, the High Seas
Fleet retreated in disarray never to venture into another major
naval battle ever again. Instead the Germans commenced U-Boat
attacks for the next four years that almost won the war for them.
On land it was a similar story. The French & German armies
skirmished with one another until the French put Plan XVII into
action. This plan called for the liberation of the provinces of
Lorraine & Alsace, which were both taken by Germany after the 1870
war. Alas, through inept French generalship & a well organised
German defence, Plan XVII proved to be a useless offensive which
cost the life of many a Frenchman. In response, the Germans
unleashed their almost successful Schlieffen Plan. It was only
stopped, however, by the heroic defence of the French & British
armies.
Four years would go by before Germany & Austria surrendered. In that
time, almost the entire world, including the United States & Russia,
were to be sucked into the vortex of battle. Millions of people,
including civilians, would die during the war. Furthermore, the
world would change forever. Alas the lessons from the horrors of the
Great War were not listened to. Instead an even bigger war would
return within a generation. In the meantime, Australia would keep
its conquests of German colonies while avoiding much of the blame
for starting the Great War. Instead, as the war historian A.J.P.
Taylor wrote, it was to be a war which was bound to happen.
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