Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

This article was inspired by David’s Could Rasputin Have Prevented the First World War from the last issue and my brainstorming in response to that article. I stated in my responses that it was impossible for Russia to just stand aside if (when) Austria invaded or suborned Serbia. In the long run, such an action would render Russia’s Balkan position unviable, while causing other states to wonder how much good Russian guarantees were. However, the Russians could act in a calm, but firm, manner that would safeguard their position and avoid a war.

Recapping what David said, the death of the Archduke led swiftly to the First World War, as the people who could have averted it, the Tsar or the Kaiser, either ignored the growing crisis or actively encouraged it until it was too late. This POD depends on the Tsar having the sense to appoint a capable diplomat to the Russian foreign office and back him when necessary. This may require ASBs, but the Tsar did have some good officers, so it might be possible. Anyway, on with the show…

Just how much the Serbian government or factions within that government knew about the assassination attempt is open to debate. It seems clear that some factions clearly knew that something was up and, at the very least, choose to do nothing. In the international climate of that time, that makes the Serb government culpable. Austria-Hungary was within its rights to issue a demand for recompense.

However, Russia had an obligation to defend Serbia if it was attacked, which meant that Austria had to move carefully. However, the Kaiser gave them a ‘blank check’, telling them that Germany would support them to the bitter end. Emboldened, the Austrians believed that Russian would not support the Serbs, and pressed on. Unluckily for them, they miscalculated and the war broke out.

Russia’s position in this is somewhat parculaerer. If the Russians support the Serbs and the Austrians back down, the will have backed a regicide, which would encourage people who want to kill the Tsar. At least five Tsars have met early ends at the hands of assassins, so the Tsar has good reason to see Serbia punished, although not without her becoming an Austrian puppet. The Russians can see Serbia impoverished, but not fall under Austrian rule.

Therefore, lets have the Russians issue a strict diplomatic note to the Austrians. That note will state that Serbia can and must be punished, but the punishment must not include temporary or total loss of Serbian independence or any weakening of the Serbian position. The Serbs can be made to pay compensation, hand over any arrested officers for trial in Austria, clamp down on anti-Austrian societies in Serbia – but no more. The Russians make it clear that anything else means war.

The best thing the Austrians can do here is play for time. However, the Russians and the French will be bringing strong pressure on Germany to recant the Kaiser’s note and the Austrians must know that if its withdrawn, their position becomes untenable. When they hear murmurings from Berlin that the Germans might recant their note – and a note from Italy saying that they will remain neutral in any conflict resulting from their actions – they accept the terms that they are offered.

The result: No World War One. The Germans and French do still have grievances with each other, but those might be resolved in other ways or, if there is a war, Britain, Russia, el al, might not be dragged in. The Ottoman Empire will survive a few extra years, as will the German and Austrian empires. The Tsar will be hailed as a peacemaker and may last longer in power.

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Triumph of the Diplomats: Averting the First World War