Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

Disaster At Midway (Part One)

Due to CTT’s wide readership, I get dozens of emails asking about particular Alternate History issues and points, ranging from people who want help with an AH (or their homework), to people who want me to study a particular POD. One email I received recently asked about a Japanese victory at Midway and the possible consequences of such a setback to the allied cause. As I tend to consider the American victory as loosely equivalent to a Roman victory at Cannae, there did not seem to be much potential for a real change, but there might be many other interesting changes that would affect the post-war world. Without further ado, then; Disaster At Midway.

Part One – Disaster: Midway was not an even battle by any means. The Japanese had overwhelming force and should have won. They lost because of overconfidence, split-second timing and an American intelligence bonza in the form of communication intercepts.

I propose two minor changes. The first is that the Japanese had split up their fleet into smaller, but still powerful, sections that were unable to support each other. That would mean that the entire Japanese fleet, carriers and battleships, would sail together into battle. The second change is a manner of timing.

In OTL, the Japanese bombed midway from their carriers and then started to rearm them for another bombing raid before learning about the American fleet. Let’s have the Japanese find out about the American carriers just before starting the rearming and they’ll be therefore ready to attack sooner, before the American bombers arrive. The Japanese launch their planes to intercept the American carriers.

The American bombers arrive on schedule and attack the Japanese. There are two major differences through; the Japanese carriers are not covered in fuel and explosives, and there are far more Japanese ships with anti-aircraft guns. Under such circumstances, the Americans won’t be able to hit the carriers, or to damage them as much. The Japanese wipe out most of the American force.

Meanwhile, the Japanese planes are attacking the US carriers. They’ll outnumber and outgun the US CAP and they’ll have better pilots. The Japanese will succeed in sinking at least two of the US carriers. The American commander would probably call a retreat, although if it he’s on one of the sunken carriers, there might be enough confusion for the Japanese to mop up most of the remaining US ships.

Summery: The US has lost two to three aircraft carriers and most of the support ships. The Japanese have lost approximately a quarter of the aircraft carried by their four carriers and perhaps a few small ships to submarines. The Japanese have landed at Midway and overcome the US garrison.

Effects on the war: Panic sweeps the US coast as news of the disaster comes in. The people are expecting a Japanese landing at any time and there are demands for mass armouring of the west coast. These demands tip FDR’s hand; he is forced to move aircraft, troops and supplies to the west and reduce the amount of lend lease going to other nations, notably Britain and the USSR.

FDR is divided on Pearl Harbour. The safest course is to abandon it, or at least reduce its defences, until the US has rebuilt its fleet. The navy, however, is confident that the base can be held against a Japanese attack and wants to keep Pearl.

The result is a series of compromises. The US keeps the garrison of Pearl at is current levels, dug in around the harbour, and ships in planes and submarines to harass Japanese shipping. The US also builds radar stations, defences and army bases along the west coast (inc. Canada) and speeds up the building of a new fleet.

The US also reduces lend lease, or puts a higher price tag on the aid. The British reluctantly send two carriers to the pacific fleet at the US request. The US also pushes the soviets to hit the Japanese in Manchuria, but the soviets refuse, as the Germans are grinding their way towards Stalingrad. The US cuts lend lease to the soviets to the bare minimal.

The other problem is Australia. The Aussie/US troops are still weak, while the US can’t send more troops. The Australians work on developing weapons production, but they are the weakest part of the allied effort. As the Japanese mop up isolated US and British ships, submarines and supply lines, it becomes more difficult to reinforce Australia, while the Japanese supply problems fade as the allied submarines are running out of range.

Eastern Front: The Soviet army is subtly different from the one in OTL. The US has stopped sending trucks, planes and other supplies. This reduces the mobility of the soviet formations, while reducing their supply lines and cutting their air cover. The Germans are still better tankers than the soviets and they have far more mobility. The German army fights its way into Stalingrad and the soviets attempt to trap it as per OTL, but the soviet army’s coordination and supplies are not quite good enough to do that in this TL. The Germans have also got more troops and planes in the area and they tear into the soviet formations.

The soviets cannot produce a victory under such circumstances. Fortunately, neither can the Germans. Both sides claim victory, but they’ve both been battered around and drained. The eastern front is going to be quiet for a few months and both sides lick their wounds.

North Africa: So far, there are only limited changes in North Africa. Like the Soviet army, the British army is subtly weaker than OTL, they have fewer tanks, guns and supplies. Further, Churchill takes the risk of diverting some Australian regiments to India and Ceylon at the Australian PM’s request. The result is a weaker British army that is less manoverable, while the Germans don’t have to worry about a massive threat to their rear. Rommel takes advantage of British weakness to launch a series of small offensives, which weaken the British still further, while encouraging nationalists in Cairo and further east. The weaker British navy even encourages the Italians to sail out of harbour and go raiding, worrying the British command.

The pacific front 1942: The allied situation looks grim. The allies have lost all of the major islands, Singapore and Midway. Australia is under siege and there is a bloody war being fought in Burma. However, the Japanese high command is uncertain of which course to pursue. They have several options:

1) Pearl harbour: Complete the destruction of American bases by invading pearl harbour. However, there are massive logistical problems involved in transporting enough troops and protecting them against allied air power, submarines and the few remaining capital ships. Further, the Japanese would need an overwhelming advantage in troop numbers, which they don’t have the shipping to transport or supply.

2) Australia: Invade Australia and end its support of the allied course. While this appears to be an easier task than Pearl, it would commit the Japanese to a long campaign against a foe with plenty of manovering room, better tanks and a very hostile population. It would also stretch the Japanese shipping problem.

3) Russia: Concentrate the army in Manchuria and attack the weakened Russians. This would have the problem of fighting a superior foe that has better equipment, although there would be fewer supply problems. However, this would do nothing to end the war against America.

4) India: Reinforce Burma and invade India. This has the advantages of hitting and destroying the weaker British fleet, hopefully recruiting Indian nationalists, which would strike a huge propaganda blow and perhaps forcing the British to leave the war.

Which action would the Japanese take? Which one offers them the best chance of making their gains parmarment? Tune in next week…

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