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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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This is my blueprint for
winning world war two for the Germans. I
invite comments and other suggestions. The first step is to
occupy part of France and have the rest run by Vichy France, and work both to
limit Vichy’s power and play on anti-British feelings in the French.
Hopefully, the French can either be persuaded to be neutral or to
actively assist Germany. The
British attack on Oran to destroy the French fleet would be used to convince
most of the French to help Germany in some ways. The next step is to
blackmail Mussolini into helping Germany and into taking German orders before
the Italians start suffering serious defeats.
The price for this is acknowledging Italian control over parts of Africa
and the Middle East. No large price
for the defeat of the British Empire. Force
Mussolini not to bother with a declaration of war, but move a few panzer
divisions to Libya and as most of the Luffwaffe as possible.
Start the African war with a surprise attack on Egypt, using Italian
troops as rear-area guards and German tanks and aircraft as front-line forces.
By my offhand calculations, bases in Libya should allow the Luffwaffe to
dominate the skies as far as Saudi Arabia, which would mean death for any
British force unlucky enough to be caught.
With battle-tested German troops, the campaign will be a walkover.
More into Egypt and reach the Suez canal, the Egyptians will rise in
revolt (and if they don’t it won’t matter much anyway) and seize the canal. At the same time, use the
Italian navy, along with German air cover, to seize Malta, Cyprus and Crete.
Without the British having had time to dig in, it should be easy to take
the Islands. The Germans can then
offer Cyprus to the Turks as an incentive to join them, which would force the
British to keep a sharp eye on them. Induce
Franco into taking Gibraltar, offering him colonial concessions if he does and
threaten invasion if he does not. German
airpower and Artillitary can help the Spanish if necessary, but if they succeed
in preventing the British from using Gibraltar, that’s fine as far as Germany
is concerned. Next, induce Vichy to
collaborate as much as you can. French
supplies in North Africa can help out the Italians and Germans (the trucks alone
will be worth their weight in gold) and it
would sour relations between the British and the free French (assuming that they
exist in this TL). Once the battle
lines are ready, advance across the Suez and take Palestine and support the
revolt in Iraq. The chaos caused by
fleeing Jews, Arab revolts and other problems would force the British to
withdraw what remains of the Mediterranean fleet through the Straights of
Gibraltar (which might become a death ride depending on how much success the
axis had with their other operations.) You
can then talk the Saudis into co-operating and attempt to prevent the Shah of
Iran from remaining with the British. While building up in Iraq,
the Germans can support the Italians in Ethiopia if they want.
I don’t think the British would commit forces there if there are more
urgent matters, but it keeps the Italians from making trouble elsewhere and
their incompetence won’t cause much damage in the middle of Africa.
This should bring you to early 1941. Once ready, push into Iran
properly. Someone like Rommel would
have harried the British as far as possible into Iran, but the logistics would
need to be built up before a proper advance could be sustained.
The Air Force can clear the way by bombing British forces and attacking
British air bases. I suspect that
if the Germans get a large force into Iran, the Shah, who was pro-German, will
switch sides. In that case, the
British will be shoved back to India. This
should induce them to make peace. If not, there are three
tasks to complete. The first is to
urge the Japanese to co-operate and use their military to intimidate the
British. If they go to war, the US
might join in, but if they tighten the screws, the British will be in trouble.
The Burma Road will close parmantly. The
second in to put the Indian Nationalist and traitor Bose at the head of an army
made up of Indian POWs and send them to fight the British.
Fomenting unrest in India should make life interesting (and dangerous)
for the British Empire. U-Boats can
go through the canal and attack British shipping in the Far East.
The third is to build defensive lines in Poland, just in case Stalin gets
ideas. Spend much of 1941
building up again and working more closely with the Japanese and Italians.
Send a few German officers to the Kwangtang Army in Manchuria and make a
few helpful suggestions. Italy can
supply troops for rear area security to back up the German forces in Iran.
Speer can become head of production and build up new forces.
The Germans also need to work on pipelines to supply oil to Germany;
although local forces can be supplied direct.
The Iranians can help with that if they have not realized what bad
masters the Germans are. The Situation for Britain
is desperate. The Empire is cut in
half. The royal navy is short on
oil and gravely weakened. India is
beginning to rebel against British rule and the Japanese are pressing the
British harder and harder as they smell weakness.
They have already taken the Dutch islands on a claim that the Dutch gave
them to the Germans and the Germans passed them on to the Japanese.
They occupied French Indochina as in OTL and signed agreements with the
Kingdom of Siam. South Africa has
switched sides, Australia and New Zealand have recalled their troops to defend
their homes and Canada is unwilling to commit more to the war.
The U-boat menace is hampering Britain’s lifeline constantly. In late 1941, India rises
in revolt, which degenerates into a five-way civil war.
The Princes see a chance for ‘real power at last’, while the Muslims,
Hindus and Sikhs attempt to avoid domination by the others and, in-between
fighting the British. Bose and
Rommel lead the combined army into North India (Pakistan) and attempt to force
an uneasy peace on all the sides wile driving out the British.
Hitler makes deals with the Princes, while arresting Ghandi, Nehru and
Jinnah, attempting to recreate the British model.
He holds most of the Indians in contempt through. British forces retreat
to Ceylon as Burma explodes behind them. Some
Germans encourage the civil war in parts of India that they can’t reach yet,
as this will save them the trouble of killing the Indians themselves.
The Japanese start seizing the British East Indies, Hong Kong and
Singapore. Hitler then continues his
polish build-up, while Stalin desperately prepares to meet Hitler’s forces or
to hit him first, depending on which side of the story you believe.
Lets assume that Hitler strikes first.
He will face a Red Army which will be more powerful and competent than in
OTL, but even more untested and the Germans can also put an attack in through
the Cascaous to destroy the Soviet Oil Wells.
Taking them is not a problem so much as the need for denying them to the
soviets, the Japanese can also be pressed into attacking the far east of the
USSR. I suspect the Germans would
win after several years hard fighting, as the red army degrades and runs out of
supplies. So, there we are, Germany is now in a cold war with America, Britain is no longer an independent power, and the world is Hitler’s oyster…
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