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Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM |
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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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Operation Barbarossa - Cut Short by Richard
Paul Smyers The June 22, 1941, invasion of the Soviet Union opened the longest and bloodiest campaign of World War Two, which ended only when Germany surrendered to the Allies. But it could have ended much, much sooner…in late summer, 1941. For years there have been rumors and hints that Stalin tried to come to terms with Hitler in the early days of Operation Barbarossa, but definite proof was always lacking. However, since the Soviet Union dissolved in the early 1990s, information has been filtering out and details on this subject were finally published in the book War of the Century: When Hitler Fought Stalin, by Lawrence Rees (The New Press, New York, © 1999). Pages 52 to 56 of this book record that in late July, 1941, Lavrenti Beria, the head of the Soviet secret police (NKVD), sent Pavel Sudoplatov, one of his most trusted agents, to see Ivan Stamenov, the Bulgarian Ambassador to the Soviet Union, to find out what terms Hitler would offer Stalin for ending the war. At this time Bulgaria was still neutral in the German-Soviet conflict, and the Bulgarian Ambassador had agreed to look after German interests in the Soviet Union. This may seem a bit odd, but even countries at war with each other have to have some method of contacting their opponent diplomatically. The fact that Beria’s career was built on his subservience to Stalin makes it clear that while Beria was starting this overture, it was done because Stalin wanted it done. Beria never did anything without Stalin’s approval. Sudoplatov made the first contact on July 25th, asking that the German government specify what it would require from the Soviet Union in order to end the fighting. The Soviet government (in fact, Stalin) offered to surrender Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bessarabia, Bukovina and the Ukraine, as well as the Karielian territory that the Soviet Union had occupied in 1940 after the Winter War with Finland. By July 27th no answer had come, and it was clear that Hitler had rejected Stalin’s offer, if, in fact, he had ever seen it.
But just consider what could have happened if Stalin’s offer had been accepted by Hitler. It
might have gone like this: July 26, 1941: Hitler receives the Soviet request for terms, and sees the advantages he can get from such an arrangement. July 27, 1941: The OKW is told that Stalin is willing to surrender a vast part of eastern Europe in exchange for peace, and Hitler has agreed. It’s true the Wehrmacht has already swept into much of the territory to be surrendered, except for the eastern Ukraine, but accepting this offer will allow Germany to consolidate and secure what has already been won, plus a good bit more. In addition, no winter campaign will be needed, and the expenditure of weapons, ammunition, fuel and men will drop to a sensible level again. Der Fuehrer outlines his reply to Stalin to his astonished staff, and has it sent to Moscow at once. July 28, 1941: Stalin gets Hitler’s reply via the Bulgarian Ambassador and Beria. He recognizes that this will just mean a breathing space, but the Soviet armed forces can reorganize and re-equip in that interval. The Soviets signed the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in 1918 to gain time, and Stalin sees nothing wrong in a similar arrangement now. July 29, 1941: Hitler receives Stalin’s acceptance of the terms, and appropriate orders go out to both Soviet and German forces. July 30, 1941: The world is astonished by the announcement. German prestige in neutral countries rises sharply, and the opinion of the military prowess of the Red Army takes a nosedive. In less than five weeks, Hitler’s forces have humbled the Soviet colossus. The loss of the Bismarck and the failure to invade England fade into the past as the terms of the settlement become known. Soviet troops in the territories being surrendered follow orders and head east, leaving behind most of their artillery, anti-tank and anti-aircraft guns, vehicles, tanks, machine guns, mortars and ammunition stocks. Soviet soldiers already taken prisoner remain in German hands “temporarily,” but any Germans held by the Soviet Union are immediately released. In London the British government is furious. They signed a treaty of alliance with the Soviet Union on July 12th, in which both governments pledged that they would neither negotiate nor conclude an armistice or treaty of peace with Germany, except by mutual agreement. And now, less than three weeks later, the Soviets have unilaterally made terms with Germany. The Royal Navy immediately cancels a scheduled strike on German forces at Petsamo and Kirkenes by aircraft from the carriers Furious and Victorious, which was intended to give support to the Soviet forces in the Arctic. Plans for shipping military supplies and aircraft to the Soviet Union are suspended. The British Communist Party becomes very unpopular. July 31, 1941: As Soviet forces pull back, Finnish troops move forward toward their pre-Winter War border with the Soviet Union, noting just what the Soviet occupation has done to this part of their country. August 1, 1941: Instead of being broken off, diplomatic relations between Great Britain and Finland remain intact. August 5, 1941: The Luftwaffe begins redeploying units from Eastern Europe to Italy and Africa. The II. Fliegerkorps is ordered to move to Sicily, and placed under Luftflotte 2, which is transferred to handle Luftwaffe affairs in the central Mediterranean. August 15, 1941: German forces have moved up to the new frontier line, and a massive salvage effort has begun in the new territories. Guns, tanks, trucks, small arms and ammunition of all kinds are being collected and shipped back to Germany as rapidly as possible. German aircraft that can be recovered are to be brought back for repairs, while Soviet aircraft of all types are also collected, with an eye toward selling suitable Soviet planes to Turkey and Finland. Any German equipment that can be repaired is to be overhauled and prepared for re-issue, while captured Soviet weaponry is to be studied for use by German or Italian units. Particular attention is given to examples of the Soviet T-34 tank and the KV-1 heavy tank, while Panzer unit commanders demand that something be done to upgrade their existing tanks. A massive effort also has begun to re-gauge the railways in the newly acquired territory, changing the distance between the rails from the Russian standard of five feet to the European standard of 4 feet, 8½ inches. Preparation of suitable winter quarters for garrison units is also put in hand, to be completed in three months. Additional troops, tanks, vehicles and supplies are being sent to Naples for shipment to Libya, to bring the 15th Panzer, 21st Panzer and 90th Light divisions up to full strength. Another motorized division is earmarked to be sent to North Africa as reinforcement. At the same time, since they will not be sending such things to the Soviets, the British increase shipments of aircraft, vehicles and tanks to the Middle East, to reinforce General Auchinleck’s forces September 1, 1941: Units of II. Fliegerkorps begin arriving at new their bases in Sicily. September 3, 1941: The second anniversary of the start of the war is marked in Germany with a major radio address by Joseph Goebbels. He stresses the repeated successes of the Wehrmacht on all fronts, carefully ignoring the Battle of Britain and the loss of the Bismarck, and the fact that Tobruk is still held by the British.
September 22, 1941: II.
Fliegerkorps aircraft start major attacks on Malta. The delivery of additional aircraft, tanks and vehicles to the British forces in the Middle East will make the build-up to Operation Crusader larger, but the shipping route around the Cape of Good Hope will keep the build-up from being completed any sooner. And even with a larger flow of supplies, tanks, vehicles and troops to Naples, the German forces in North Africa still have to face the problem of getting those reinforcements to North Africa, and then up to the fighting line east of Tobruk. I assume that both Rommel and Auchinleck will get more troops and supplies to their respective frontline forces, but the result will be forces still weighted as they were in reality—only quantitatively bigger on both sides. An additional change takes place when 48 “Hurricane” and 146 Curtiss “Tomahawk IIB” fighters don’t get shipped to the Soviet Union from British stocks. (Another 49 “Tomahawks” were shipped directly to Russia from the U. S. factories, from British orders.) If the “Tomahawks” are shipped to the Far East instead, by December 1, 1941, Singapore could have several squadrons equipped with them instead of with the Brewster “Buffalo.” Without the need to run convoys to north Russia the Royal Navy will have escorts available to reinforce the Atlantic convoys. There is also the likelihood that both Force H at Gibralter and the Mediterranean Fleet at Alexandria will get some more ships. Some of the Luftwaffe formations that left northern France at the end of May 1941 will return, and massive air raids on London, such as the one on the night of May 10/11, 1941, will begin again. But German bomber losses had grown steadily during the first five months of 1941, and now the British night fighter force has had four months in which to train more crews. More Ground Controlled Interception radar stations have been built, and the heavy anti-aircraft batteries are now largely equipped with the improved Gun-Laying Radar Mark II, which provides greatly increased accuracy for night firing. The British air defenses are stronger than ever, and when the Luftwaffe returns to the night blitz the bomber squadrons will take brutal losses. Planning for a renewal of the attack on the Soviet Union will go forward in Hitler’s inner circle, with little concern for the weak points in the Wehrmacht that were revealed during Operation Barbarossa. A short, fast and powerful campaign has again won much for Germany, and it is expected to do so again…in 1942. In the Soviet
Union, Stalin orders that new factories for the production of tanks, aircraft,
small arms and ammunition be set up well to the east, beyond the reach of a
renewed Nazi assault. At the same
time those factories in territory that is still part of the Soviet Union go into
around-the-clock production of the latest tanks, mortars, artillery and small
arms, to replace losses. The Red
Army concentrates on digesting the lessons it has learned, training new units
and preparing countermeasures for the next round of the conflict that is sure to
come.
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