Operation Norway (part two)

Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

Operation Norway (Part 2)

The Story So Far: In a previous issue, I put forward a divergence that had the allies invading Norway instead of French North Africa (Operation Torch). Given allied supremacy in the crucial areas, they defeat the Germans swiftly and move on towards Finland, which switches sides upon an Anglo-American guarantee of their 1939 borders. Meanwhile, the Germans have managed to survive Stalingrad with fewer losses and consequentially a better position after Manstain’s counterattack.

Meanwhile, Monty has been pushing Rommel backwards toward French Territory. When the Germans retreat into French territory, allied forces pursue them. The Vichy forces open fire on the allies and the allies consequently overrun and liberate Algeria. Vichy France declares war on the allies, while trouble brews in the east. With a powerful allied force encamped on his western borders, Stalin sees the possibility of any post-war gains at the expense of Poland, Finland, et al, disappearing. He therefore secretly engages the Germans in a temporary truce, which frees up the Germans to fight the allies, who in turn are grimly aware that Stalin has deserted them.

Now Read On: The western forces are aware that Hitler is planning to attack them in the Leningrad region and are building up desperately. That’s not as easy as it seems, as the logistics are not as good as they seem on a map, although allied air power helps to even the odds. As May becomes June, Hitler has to postpone the offensive several times as allied bombing raids disrupt preparations. However, by the end of June, the Germans are ready to begin their offensive. On the eve of the second battle of Leningrad, lets take a quick look at the attitudes of the different powers.

Britain: Churchill is unsurprised by the defection of the USSR. He knows Stalin too well and half-expected something like this to happen. The British want to conserve their strength and launch Balkan or Italian operations to tie down German forces. Churchill knows how powerful the Germans will become with a month or two of peace and fears the effects on Britain if they are forced back out of Europe again.

America: FDR is annoyed. The attack on Norway and the consequent liberation of Finland plays well in the coming elections, but the loss of the USSR is a server blow. Worse, he wants to get American forces on to the continent in France and the addition of Vichy to the hostile forces means that the odds will be worse than OTL. Further, FDR suspects that the British have a low opinion of American fighting ability (true), as Rommel trapped and destroyed a couple of American divisions and an incompetent American commander caused the loss of a British force in the war. The British are very reluctant to place more of their forces under American command, while FDR can’t place many American troops under British command for political reasons.

France: The French are in real trouble and know it. Unfortunately, the French can’t see a proper way out of the war without massive devastation to France and the loss of the remainder of the colonies. There are really three sides in French affairs (pun not intended).

The Free French, in Britain, have been sidelined somewhat as Vichy became an active foe, largely because of De Gaulle’s personality. He is in the position of someone begging for alms, but he’s acting as through he’s a major power. This attitude is really annoying the British and Americans and they’ve made quiet suggestions to the French that perhaps another leader should be considered.

The Vichy French are worse off, although not by much. They’ve basically declared war because of the British attacks as they’ve been trying to maintain the fiction that they’re an independent state. They now have to deal with both a populace that blames them for the loss of the colonies to the oldest foe and the new dependence on the Germans. Worse, they know that several US and British politicians have been making suggestions that French politics were largely responsible for the recent disasters from 1936 and advocate completely wiping the French political scene and replacing it with one based on the US model. As we know, nothing galvanises a politician more than the prospect of losing his power, if not his life.

The French communists are in a state. The party has split into two sides when Stalin made his truce with the Germans, one group being die-hard Stalin loyalists and the other advocating a form of independent French communism. The two sides are lying low for the moment, but they expect to become a major force when the war is over.

Italy (and other German allies): Italy wants out of the war. They’ve lost all their colonies to the allies and are dependent on the Germans. However, the Germans have not lost in a big way yet, and they’ve made a truce with one of their major foes. Mussolini takes some credit for that, as he advocated such a course (he did in OTL, but Hitler was not interested) and tries to use it to strengthen his failing position. However, real power in Italy is slipping into the hands of a group of anti-fascist officers, who are preparing to switch sides. The only things deterring them are the fact that the Germans are prepared to invade and they know that the allies won’t be able to assist them. The other German allies feel the same way.

USSR: Stalin has what he considers a breathing space from the war. Time enough, he thinks, to let the allies fight the Germans for a while. When the Germans collapse, the Red Army can take much of the valuable territory as war booty. Further, he can threaten the Japanese in Manchuria while waiting.

Germany: Hitler thinks he’s won part of the war. Germany now has time to build tougher defences in France, while breaking France and Italy further to the cause. However, he suspects that Stalin will let him and the west exhaust themselves, then roll in and take all the marbles. Further, he’s worried about putting most of the German army into the Leningrad region. Not only are the logistics dreadful, but also it places temptation into Stalin’s path. While the Germans are attacking Finland, Stalin can cut them off and thrust into Germany. He therefore needs to keep large reserves on the eastern front.

The War: The British and the Americans have reached an agreement that they’re both unhappy with, but they can’t get a better one. While the Americans are far outbuilding their British ally, they have not yet won the victories to translate that power into real influence. (The British having conveniently forgotten Singapore.) Basically, the Americans will build up a mainly American force in Britain for a late 1943/1944 invasion of France, while the British will raid the Mediterranean and reinforce Finland. They’ve officially appointed Monty as the commander of Finland, but real power tends to be in the hands of the Finnish commanders.

Hitler sets a deadline. In July 1943, the German army is expected to launch an attack across the Leningrad region into the allied defences. The German navy is also expected to launch raids into Finland, with support from the Luffwaffe. It does not quite work out that way.

The German attack begins promisingly, but soon bogs down. The allies have armed as many Russians and Finns as they can and they wreak havoc with German lines. The Finns also have a tough, well-armed, army of their own and bleed the Germans white. The Germans cause considerable damage, but eventually Hitler is forced to call the campaign a failure. He removes a few generals from office, while misgivings develop (even more) within the German system.

The allies are preparing their invasion of France. This is largely an American operation (with limited British support) as the British still have doubts about American fighting capabilities and are tied down in Finland to some extent. The British reluctance to take part is supported by many senior American officers, who worry about British designs for the use of the American troops and want, therefore, a separate mission. The allies also disagree on the bombing campaign. The British want to hammer away at Germany’s cities, as do many American airmen, but the American commander of the coming invasion wants as much damage to the French communications and the German defences as possible. As the invasion has priority, he gets his way, although the British and American airmen still bomb German cities on occasion. Eisenhower goes along with this as it forces the Germans to keep some of their air force in Germany.

Germany on the eve of D-Day: The Germans are in a stronger position than they were in OTL. The allies have not been hitting their factories as hard as OTL and the Germans have been able to build up their infrastructure to some extent, although bad nazi organisation hampers Speer’s efforts at combining the industries. Further, the Germans have not lost thousands of men per day on the eastern front since 1943. However, all is not gravy. The allies have won the air battle for France and have practically forced the Luffwaffe out of northern France, which allows American bombers to pound German positions. German mobility is therefore severely limited, which means that the units at the landing zone will have to fight without much hope of reinforcement.

D-Day: The allies have coordinated their plans carefully. The British and Free French launch a series of heavy raids/invasions against Italian Islands in the Aegean, as well as raids on Sicily and Sardinia. A Free French raid on Corsica turns into an occupation when the French garrison switches sides. The Germans are forced to shift reinforcements to Greece and Italy to avoid disaster.

The American forces storm ashore a week later in Normandy. After a short brutal struggle, they find themselves holding a large pocket on the coast of France, but they’re run in to Rommel’s defensive positions. Rommel held no illusions about the limited possibilities of a Panzer counterattack and therefore builds strongpoints and defence lines to hold up the allied attack. The Americans have to grind through them slowly.

The Germans move as fast as they can to seal off any possibility of a breakout. They have problems because of the constant allied air attacks (German morale is severely dented as the Americans develop pinpoint bombing to some extent) and the lingering supply situation. Rommel and Goring also take two other steps. While preparing for a counter attack, they mass German planes and V1s in southern France, which are meant to give their air superiority (or at least contest control of the air) when they launch their counterattack.

The Germans have other problems as well as the Americans. The Free French have converted Corsica into a base of operations and are using it to supply anti-German or anti-Vichy forces. The Germans soon face attacks in territory that was previously quiet and retaliate with massive reprisals.

Hitler sees the developing situation on the map and plans a surprise for the Americans. The Americans main objective is to take Paris, so the Germans will fight a street battle for the city, while attacking both of the allied flanks and cutting the allied force off from its base. The Americans head into Paris a month after D-Day.

The Far East: While the invasion of France is a US army job, the war against Japan is a naval job, with the navy in charge. While there have been a few island invasions, most of the troops are needed for France and therefore the only real fighting has been on the naval side. However, the allies raid Japanese island bases with the intention of forcing the Japanese navy to fight, which it does in late 1944. The American and British forces crush the Japanese navy in a long battle, but take surprisingly heavy casualties when the Japanese begin suicide raids.

On the china front, Stalin has finally got ready to stab the Japanese in the back, which he does with a hammerblow. Soviet armoured forces pour into Manchuria and literally brush much of the Japanese forces aside, then heading down towards Korea. As they advance, the Japanese improve their tactics and slow the soviets down, while Chinese forces are finally forced to take the offensive. The soviets declare the formation of a ‘Manchurian SSR’, with a communist government, in which Mao is not invited to parcipitate.

The battle of France: Up to a point, Hitler’s plan works. The Americans have three spearheads heading for Paris and their commanders want to have the honour of being first there, so they take less care with their flanks than they should do. However, the French communists (mainly the France-first group) are strong in Paris and, when the Germans start to dig in, hit them from behind. The Germans have problems fighting on two fronts and are swiftly surrounded.

The German offensive starts well, but then becomes bogged down. The Germans have flung every plane they can spare into the attack and they keep the allied air forces busy for a few days, while the German forces have freedom of movement for that long. The Americans and British discover that their tanks need improving as fast as possible. The allies win the battle for the air, however, and then the RAF and USAAF can start hitting the German forces. Rommel calls a retreat.

Political Crisis: FDR was an ill man. The shock of the initial reports from the battle scene caused him to have a mild heart attack and then a worse one. He dies just after the Americans stabilise the battle lines. This puts Truman in command of the US war effort at a crucial moment.

FDR wanted to see the end of the European empires. Truman wants to defeat the Germans while ensuring that the soviets do not gain anything from their two pacts with Hitler. This task is quite difficult, the more so because the British can’t hope to hold Finland against a determined USSR assault and the American forces are needed in France. While the US and Britain have been supplying the Poles and a few other nationalist groups, Truman has no illusions about their ability to resist a soviet attack, while he sees the loss of a large part of China to the soviets as very threatening to the US interests. There have already been clashes between the Chinese Nationalists and the Red Army.

The situation in France is complicated. The Americans and a few British divisions hold a swath of land in France, nominally a Nantes-Paris-Dunkirk region, but the Germans have been able to hold them in that region. The Germans have also been bombarding the American territory with V1s, which have had little effect apart from lucky hits and they’ve mounted major air attacks a few times. The US is therefore having difficulty building enough supplies to be certain of victory.

To be fair, Hitler has similar problems; if he places much of the German forces into the battle for France, Stalin will have every incentive to launch an attack into the German rear, possibly winning the war there and then. If he holds back, the German attacks will probably fail and the Americans will be able to advance.

Who controls France is also a major problem. The south of France is in a state of near civil war as the Germans retreat, stripping the land as they go. The Free French have been slipping in sabotagers and making life difficult for Vichy, causing Darlen to order Free French operations to be prevented and free frenchers to be arrested or shot. De Gaulle orders retaliation and asks Truman to meditate and/or act against the collaborationist Vichy faction. Truman, who is unimpressed with De Gaulle’s pretensions and wants a peaceful France, pressures the Free French to remove him and select another leader. The free French refuse.

Truman has two different strategies developing. The first is to build up in France and then launch an attack into Germany. The second is to wait until a few atomic bombs are ready to use and then use them on a few German cities.

The final year of the war: The Americans concentrate their efforts in early 1945 on building up in France and cutting the Japanese off from their sources of supply. The use of nationalist factions in Indochina and India to fight the Japanese, while giving them promises of independence afterwards, works to make the Japanese see the war is lost. However, even as soviet forces sweep down towards Korea, the Japanese leadership is not prepared to end the war on good terms.

The Americans have been launching a massive bombing offensive over Germany. They build up massive bomber bases in Norway, Britain and Finland and launch massive raids on Germany. Some of the cities are spared for later attention, but the plan is to cripple the German ability to make war. Meanwhile, the British (with limited American support) have been pressing into Greece and the Balkans, opening contact with anti-nazi factions in those areas. The flood of American weapons arms factions there for anti-German and anti-everyone-else fighting, although the British work hard to keep weapons out of the hands of communist factions. In some places that proves to be impossible.

The British are working to set up a Balkan confederacy. The Americans back this as far as they can, although Truman considers the British interests to be expandable if necessary, as it could provide a bulwark against communism. They promise massive economic aid after the war in exchange for joining and trying to get along with their neighbours.

The Americans drop an atomic bomb on Hamburg. The city is completely destroyed with massive casualties, causing massive demoralisation in the German people. The Nazi party machine tries to convince people that it was a trick, but that fails badly when Kiel is also destroyed the next week. Much of the German army disintegrates. Hitler and his closest cronies are killed by an SS hit squad on Himmiler’s orders, but he discovers that the army was loyal to Hitler, rather than the party, and he gets shot himself.

Stalin is summoned to a meeting with Truman. The US president informs him that the west has more of the wonder-bombs and the ability to use them on the Soviet Union. Truman instructs Stalin to allow the poles and Finns to have their 1939 borders, while allowing him to keep North China, provided he takes in the local reds. Stalin backs down with ill grace.

Aftermath: The former French territories survived under a US mandate until 1950. There is massive economic development in those lands and they are now important US allies in Africa and the Far East.

Japan surrendered after the atomic attacks on Germany and the occupation of Korea by the USSR. The Americans realised that the Japanese would need to be far more involved than OTL in their own defence, so they purged the Japanese system far more than OTL, while limiting what Japan could export.

Britain’s economy became stronger under a series of land-lease/bribes from the US to keep them in the anti-USSR coalition. British colonies were decolonised under US supervision, but received massive US aid to keep them stable.

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